AndyM
Short

EURUSD Elliott wave analysis, projecting descent to 0.87

FX_IDC:EURUSD   EURO / US DOLLAR
In this chart I want to share my view on the next EURUSD             movements based on Elliott waves . The statements I would like to advocate:

1) We have almost completed the impulse wave from 1.3994 to 1.1098 are are now set for a flat correction for a few months.
2) The descent is _not_ finished and we will continue moving down for another ~2900 pips till end 2015.

The reasons that make me believe this scenario is valid are the following:
1) There have been three wave of USD vs EUR weakening since early 1970s. The present ticker contains the data of USD vs European currencies aggregate starting 1971 and the cycles are clearly visible. We can view those three cycles as a 5-wave             bullish diagonal, which would require a noticeable correction after its completion. I believe the market is now drawing exactly this type of large correction which is certainly not finished.

2) I believe the latest bearish impulse wave of EURUSD             started much earlier than June 2014. In fact, I regard the descent observed since May 2011 as an impulse wave of which we have almost completed wave . An observation that hints this wave count may be valid is the stunning equality of waves and , as show on the chart. The equality of waves suggests they are part of one logical structure. Projecting the development of wave and onto the possible wave and taking into account the magnitude of movement needed to obtain a sizable correction in EURUSD             after three cycles of USD weakening, I aim for == equality.

3) "Naive fibonnachi" extension (2.618 from earlier trend breakout to the top of wave also suggests we should land in approx. 0.87 area.

4) Technical analysis set aside, there are ongoing issues with the economy and the search for safe haven is far from completion. S&P             is making ATHs, we have yet to observe its fast decline at some point, which I believe will coincide with another wave of USD strengthening. I assume the timing of S&P             reaching its top will be May-June 2015, so the start of wave of EURUSD             descent aligned to the same timeframe would make sense.
HI Thanks for sharing. Regarding the counts, I think your wave 1 in this 5 wave bearish cycle is suspect ans also in comparison wave 3,4 and 5 do not seem to have correct structural look in particular wave 4. Just my view I could be wrong.
Reply
I agree - wave looks somewhat further away from the rest of the movement, it is also suspect in a sense that it's not an impulse - could be counted as a leading diagonal though, but in any case it's breath and strength are not comparable to the rest of the movement we observe after wave . I made a more detailed analysis of wave 3 in the related chart showing the wave counts - I am more comfortable with that one, but the coming wave 4 should be long enough in order to make the whole setup look like a proper impulse. So quite a few assumptions have been made.
Reply
I agree - wave 1 looks somewhat further away from the rest of the movement, it is also suspect in a sense that it's not an impulse - could be counted as a leading diagonal though, but in any case it's breath and strength are not comparable to the rest of the movement we observe after wave 2. I made a more detailed analysis of wave 3 in the related chart showing the wave counts - I am more comfortable with that one, but the coming wave 4 should be long enough in order to make the whole setup look like a proper impulse. So quite a few assumptions have been made.
Reply
I agree. Wave 1 is in fact a an abc zigzag so it cannot be part of this cycle. But otherwise we are in retracement of what I think is wave 4, hence a new lower low or retest of the low could complete possible 5 waves from June-July 2014 high.
Reply
I looked at Wave 1 in my setup again and now I do realize that it's indeed a zigzag. A double zigzag in fact. Everything is symmetric, every inner correction slices the movement of the higher degree in halves. No impulse, only two forces trying to strike the balance. I will need to review my wave count. Thanks for pointing this out!
Reply
It is a pleasure.

In fact that same labels have been applied by many EW practitioner without realising what you noted in your comments above.

The whole correction from 2008 high has been interpreted in several ways highlighting that fact is has been very complex. But the decline from July high appears to be impulsive and 5 wave are near completion with possible last swing from the current congestion could be enough.

One to monitor for sure.
+1 Reply
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