Breaks Out Of Bearish Channel | $EUR $USD #ECB #Fed #forex
Friends,
Today's price action offered a significant technical event in the form of a channel breakout to the upside, as a bearish channel upper border imposed very little resistance against a bullish push.
Question remains: Are we looking at higher highs?
First, my system has now given up its bearish directional signal, as it turned to an early bullish market reversal signal. From this standpoint, bears should now look at the following two significant nearby levels to decide whether to hold on or shift position:
1 - A larger Head & Shoulder ("H&S") pattern stands guard @ 1.38749 against any bullish advance, with a right shoulder apex defining a last bastion of resistance before opening up to a historical high.
2 - The Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW", defined by points 1-2-3-4-5) terminates at the 1-4 Profit Target Line, which should be considered a significant level of overhead resistance.
Hence, we are considering two potential scenarios here:
1 - A bullish scenario sees price retracing from the WW, validates the upper border of the recent channel, and continues to loftier 1.40's levels.
2 - A bearish scenario interprets both right shoulder and WW's Target Line as interdiction to bulls, and price resumes its decline towards our forecast abysmal target @ 1.35008.
Taking a step back, all this is taking place within a fundamental context of ill-defined and non-committal central banks. On one side, a recent statement made today suggested that the Euro was "too high", while the ECB made no clear statement whether it would or not have recourse to easing interventions.
On the other side of the pool, the Fed is retracting and redefining contradictory easing statements made between voting members.
So, from a fundamental point of view, there really isn't any clear directional hint.
OVERALL:
As indicated before, I personally believe that directional moves are discounted within the charts, and that my predictive analysis and forecasting has been able to forecast and hit the recent target dead-on @ 1.36707. The recent signal has turned to neutral. Hence, until a clear signal exists, I will keep my position small, looking at retracements from the WW's Target Line, and follow-through with a tight stop-loss.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Prop Trader
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
-------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
- All my predictive analyses, forecast and signals are based on unshared proprietary patterns, strategies and market research results, which shall remain unshared and unknown to you, the reader. So, do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
Today's price action offered a significant technical event in the form of a channel breakout to the upside, as a bearish channel upper border imposed very little resistance against a bullish push.
Question remains: Are we looking at higher highs?
First, my system has now given up its bearish directional signal, as it turned to an early bullish market reversal signal. From this standpoint, bears should now look at the following two significant nearby levels to decide whether to hold on or shift position:
1 - A larger Head & Shoulder ("H&S") pattern stands guard @ 1.38749 against any bullish advance, with a right shoulder apex defining a last bastion of resistance before opening up to a historical high.
2 - The Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW", defined by points 1-2-3-4-5) terminates at the 1-4 Profit Target Line, which should be considered a significant level of overhead resistance.
Hence, we are considering two potential scenarios here:
1 - A bullish scenario sees price retracing from the WW, validates the upper border of the recent channel, and continues to loftier 1.40's levels.
2 - A bearish scenario interprets both right shoulder and WW's Target Line as interdiction to bulls, and price resumes its decline towards our forecast abysmal target @ 1.35008.
Taking a step back, all this is taking place within a fundamental context of ill-defined and non-committal central banks. On one side, a recent statement made today suggested that the Euro was "too high", while the ECB made no clear statement whether it would or not have recourse to easing interventions.
On the other side of the pool, the Fed is retracting and redefining contradictory easing statements made between voting members.
So, from a fundamental point of view, there really isn't any clear directional hint.
OVERALL:
As indicated before, I personally believe that directional moves are discounted within the charts, and that my predictive analysis and forecasting has been able to forecast and hit the recent target dead-on @ 1.36707. The recent signal has turned to neutral. Hence, until a clear signal exists, I will keep my position small, looking at retracements from the WW's Target Line, and follow-through with a tight stop-loss.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Prop Trader
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
-------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
- All my predictive analyses, forecast and signals are based on unshared proprietary patterns, strategies and market research results, which shall remain unshared and unknown to you, the reader. So, do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
