Do Swissies Know Something? | $USD $CHF #SNB #FED #Forex $EUR

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc

At this point, markets seem to have leveled off. In fact, USD started to rally, as it gains strength against most other currencies, except against the EURUSD             , whose high of 1.38981 has remained unchallenged even after US markets closed.

A look at a reverse correlated USDCHF             , my predictive analysis and forecasting system remains neutral for the time being, while a prop pattern has emerged to indicate a probable rallying from the current level.

I have defined a probable range of support (0.87522 to 0.87271), which should offer a significant support. A rallying from this range should concern the prospective or vested bear, unless price broke and closed below the lower value.

A bullish scenario opens to an immediate mod/high-probability primary target @ 0.89792, and a low-probability secondary target @ 0.91374.


A prop pattern calls attention to a potential reversal at these levels. A reverse correlation with EURUSD             or positive correlation with GBPUSD             is worth the glance. However, other charts, such as XAUUSD             and USDollar             have also posted similar signal of probable reversal at current price levels. While a prop pattern offers a signal of a potential reversal against a forecasting system that remains bearish , the net objective directional bias remains NEUTRAL for now.


David Alcindor
Prop Trader
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting

- All my predictive analyses, forecast and signals are based on unshared proprietary patterns, strategies and market research results, which shall remain unshared and unknown to you, the reader. So, do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor
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20 MAY 2014 - Update:

Since the last analysis/forecast last month (see original text above), the defined floor did provide the forecast support as candles kept their open/close sessions right within the forecast zone between 0.87271 and 0.87522.

As with the analysis and forecast just defined for the USDollar (see it here: $DXY -Chart update: #USDollar index remains bullish; Targets are intact: ), where bulls are providing growing support to the greenback, CHF is growingly falling under bearish pressure. Fundamentals apart (the recent news of Swiss banks losing their secrecy clout), this predictive analysis was rendered only last month, and it was able to weather through without negatively affecting the forecast.

Therefore, at this point, TG-1 = 0.89792 - 26 MAR 2014 remains in sight and in force, while the loftier target - which has not suffered from any contradictory technical event - also remains in force.


David Alcindor
I meant I rather buy usdchf than sell eurusd, if I want to be long usd. Exactly because of the floor in eurchf at 1,20. Less downside risk.
Well, people still think CHF is safe haven. I don't think it is. How can something with a negative rate and a fixed floor provided by the SNB be considered as safe haven? What is the upside going long CHF? We do understand it is a proxy on EURUSD move, but in fact these are the reasons I like to play bullish USD bets rather through USDCHF, than ag. EUR. Now the only question is when? Answer, when it delivers a buy signal. But really worth watching! Thanks a lot for the post!
4xForecaster Kumowizard
@Kumowizard - Not sure I understand the nuance in your statement. Playing USD bullish rather than through USDCHF is one and the same thing. But I agree, SNB is artificially keeping a 1.20 rate to the Euro, and it is readying to continue to do so through purchasing of foreign currencies at an unlimited rate, per recent statement, so definitely not assuring. In any case, thank you for dropping buy and adding a comment to the thread. Much appreciated. David
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