Last January 25th, 2014, I defined a target as TG-1 = 18.815 - 25 JAN 2014, and offered the following note:
#XAGUSD: Predictive Analysis / NEW Target | #XAG #XAU #Silver #Gold
- For the record, chart annotated as: "xagusd - 2014-01-25 - h4- new TG-1 = 18.815 - 25 JAN 2014 - 4xquad forecasting"
#Silver remains under pressures. Predictive analysis remains unless market reversal events occur to contradict current outlook. High-probability target offering highest support is defined as "TG-1 = 18.815"
- David Alexandre Alcindor
(Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=568710503215326&set=a.394639787289066.93874.383867671699611&type=1&theater - That short analysis can still be view on my former 4xQuad.com site - I have since migrated to this focused, professional site)
As of today, I have defined a higher probability interim target, defined as: TG-int. = 19.065 - 15 APR 2014. Considering global fundamental threats (Chinese market softening and imminent housing market collapse), I expect related to under-perform (and that's a euphemism for my professional gold trading friends - they know who they are - who have tried to convinced me of a rallying in the precious metals.)
Metals have maintained their forecast courses, and at these levels nearing targets, I expect a significant relief rally could occur, but this would be technically driven (not by current fundamental merits), as in this $Copper chart:
$Copper - Potential relief rally to 3.180, per March 11th predictive analysis and forecast:
However, this relief rally is becoming less probability as markets are reacting to a broad commodity depreciation.
On the Forex side, look for significant decline in the commodity-dependent currencies, such as the AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF. Here are my comments for each of these, plus TNX:
(... continues in comments underneath chart - TradingView has a word-limitation that forces me to truncate analysis. Sorry)
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$AUDUSD - The Aussie is one we have charted, dices, discussed and posted multiple times. Here too, there is a technically driven action, which occurred first at the 5-prime, then at the 5-second level of the Wolve Waves, whereupon price rolled:
- Wolve Waves 5-Second triggers a roll-over -
Yet, aside from a pattern-based analysis, a price-independent (quant) analysis and forecasting defined loftier targets for the Aussie from which to reverse - although the background of a head-and-shoulder was layered atop the forecasting data as added support in the bullish thesis:
- Bifid Head & Shoulder projects price to loftier level than recent Wolfe Waves -
$NZDUSD - NZD remains resilient on the back of a central bank that is poised to increase its rate. The real handicap of NZD is its commodity base economy that depends on Chinese and other Asian partners demand. The net impact of a bullish pending interest hike against a commodity-wide price collapse will inscribe itself in the charts. My predictive analysis and forecasting system has been very good at forecasting various Forex, metals and index moves, so I will stand by the system, as it has so far hit two bullish targets (TG-1 = 0.85950 - 08 MAR 2014 and TG-2 = 0.86656 - 08 MAR 2014), while a tertiary target remains pending as TG-3 = 0.88099, as well as a low-probability lofty TG-Hi = 0.94565 - 08 MAR 14:
$USDCAD - The Loonie remains an odd fellow. Technically, I am expecting a completion of the Wolfe Waves' 1-4 Profit Target line validation, but the Canadian economy has the benefit of leaning on oil exports to the US when things do not look so good for Gold. Hence, the moves are likely to be technically driven, while the net directional bias should remain bullish for the CAD, as it depends on the welfare of the US consumer base:
$USDCHF - Here, we are expecting a potential reversal to occur from current levels based on an improvement in the US data and a persistent weakness in gold. Caveat: USDCHF has YET to signal a bullish reversal signal. The targets defined occurred under a more bullish set of technical data, so at this point, this chart remains unaccomplished in terms of committing to a bullish directional bias:
Expect commodity-correlated currencies to be driven by a softening or perceived collapse of the Asian market. The reflexive impact should be bullish Dollar, which remains the only currency standing by default. The bond market will be one to follow as well, as it is widely expected that price action in TNX will drive rate incrementally higher: (hence, look for a rally in USDJPY: https://www.tradingview.com/v/5Hu45FZi/), while impacting the broader market as it may have already, based on a recent target hit in the Dow Composite index: .
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster