Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
I would argue that the terminology you are using for COT analysis is incorrect. You state the net positions to be that of Commercials. Commercials hedge positions so they will increase short positions in an uptrend and are usually max short at market tops. The figures you are reporting are actually those of the the large speculators (Net 146,390 long as of the last report) which do trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Commercials are in fact Net short at the moment with - 203,342 contracts. Commercial net longs from the last report is 359,037 and short positions are 562,379. Your analysis is well reasoned but i think you should make it clear that you are reporting the large speculator positions in your COT data and not the comercial hedgers.
@transparent-fx, I could have swore you said commercial hedgers positions which is the same as commercials , non-commercials are the same as speculators I agree. Commercials are definitely worth watching though, I would have to disagree . They can give you clues as to whether they are hedging market moves which can give a very good insight into whether they believe the market is going to continue to rise or fall.