Completed Trades that have been entered during the downswing and now the upswing and then ???????
1. SELL at around 1.1375 and exit at 1.1302 --Compeleted Oct. 29th
2. BUY at around 1.1311 and exit at 1.1407 -- Completed Nov 1st
3. Current Trade:
SELL at 1.1411 and my exit will be at 1.1335 ( i will tighten stops in case it goes against my analysis ) , my Stop is at 1.1500
REASON: i am not convinced that just because of earlier Brexit Rumors about a financial services deal , it changes fundamentals on the EURUSD and GBPUSD . The bounce was expected due to oversold conditions but the Brexit Rumors plus Brexit deal Optimism just added the Fuel for the rally. Though the US Economic data today was mixed the US Economy is currently out-performing the peers like EURO, CHINA, JAPAN and emerging markets . The DXY ( US Dollar Index ) took a breather today , Forcast is that DXY will power towards 100.39 Level . EURO Economic data has been softening for the last 6 months and the Growth has slowed down .
Mantra for now: Buy any oversold Bounce but sell the main downtrend until the EURUSD conditions or Market sentiment changes to BULLISH
1. SELL at around 1.1375 and exit at 1.1302 --Compeleted Oct. 29th
2. BUY at around 1.1311 and exit at 1.1407 -- Completed Nov 1st
3. Current Trade:
SELL at 1.1411 and my exit will be at 1.1335 ( i will tighten stops in case it goes against my analysis ) , my Stop is at 1.1500
REASON: i am not convinced that just because of earlier Brexit Rumors about a financial services deal , it changes fundamentals on the EURUSD and GBPUSD . The bounce was expected due to oversold conditions but the Brexit Rumors plus Brexit deal Optimism just added the Fuel for the rally. Though the US Economic data today was mixed the US Economy is currently out-performing the peers like EURO, CHINA, JAPAN and emerging markets . The DXY ( US Dollar Index ) took a breather today , Forcast is that DXY will power towards 100.39 Level . EURO Economic data has been softening for the last 6 months and the Growth has slowed down .
Mantra for now: Buy any oversold Bounce but sell the main downtrend until the EURUSD conditions or Market sentiment changes to BULLISH
Comment:
NOTE: The DXY ( US Dollar Index) has been tumbling since the November 1 session start in Asia yesterday. As of this update , DXY is down 0.84% ( from 97.19 to now 96.29 ) and still tumbling.
Looking at the "BIG BOYS orderbooks" i am not seeing any Major positioning for major banks due to today's movement. The Banks are about 64% EURUSD SHORT and 36% EURUSD LONG , unless we start seeing major positioning for the BIG BOYS then the major Trend is still BEARISH
Looking at the "BIG BOYS orderbooks" i am not seeing any Major positioning for major banks due to today's movement. The Banks are about 64% EURUSD SHORT and 36% EURUSD LONG , unless we start seeing major positioning for the BIG BOYS then the major Trend is still BEARISH
Comment:
Quick EURUSD 4-Hour Pattern Note:
Anytime the EURUSD has rallied in an Uptrend for more than 110 pips in a single 24-hours without any Major EU Economic news ( Not geopolitical news) then in the 2 next session it tumbles , So will this time be different ?
Anytime the EURUSD has rallied in an Uptrend for more than 110 pips in a single 24-hours without any Major EU Economic news ( Not geopolitical news) then in the 2 next session it tumbles , So will this time be different ?
Comment:
The GBP/USD pair added roughly 250 pips this Thursday, as despite optimistic Brexit headlines were denied, the Sterling found support in an upbeat BOE and dollar's sell-off.
The GBPUSD dragged EURUSD up with it even with false news
The GBPUSD dragged EURUSD up with it even with false news
Comment:
US: Market focus shifting on meeting between Trump and Xi
US & China tariffs has taken over and is driving the US Dollar to the ground hence All other currencies are rising irrespective of the fundamentals .
Cancel the trade . Wait for NFP new at 8:30 am EST today (friday). Then go long or short .
NOTE: The regime or Market sentiment has changed now towards China & US trade talks and NOT EURO problems . As traders we shift with the Wind
US & China tariffs has taken over and is driving the US Dollar to the ground hence All other currencies are rising irrespective of the fundamentals .
Cancel the trade . Wait for NFP new at 8:30 am EST today (friday). Then go long or short .
NOTE: The regime or Market sentiment has changed now towards China & US trade talks and NOT EURO problems . As traders we shift with the Wind
Comment:
CANCEL the EURUSD Short trade if you entered earlier before confirmation .
My Plan:
Wait for US Economic news for NFP at 8:30 am EST today , and see what kind of trade develops.
NOTE: THE REPORTED CHINA & US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS ARE CURRENTLY DRIVING ALL THE CURRENCIES AND STOCK MARKETS SINCE YESTERDAY ON TOP OF BREXIT NEWS
My Plan:
Wait for US Economic news for NFP at 8:30 am EST today , and see what kind of trade develops.
NOTE: THE REPORTED CHINA & US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS ARE CURRENTLY DRIVING ALL THE CURRENCIES AND STOCK MARKETS SINCE YESTERDAY ON TOP OF BREXIT NEWS
Comment:
CNBC just reported that the China & US trade deal negotiations was false.
WARNING:
Volatility and rumors is a bad double whammy for Forex trading. in the last 4 days we did have 2 major rumors
-- BREXIT financial services deal
-- US & China trade deal
and all turned out to be false
The EURO Bulls have based the EURUSD & GBPUSD Rallies on this rumors . So long as they are false and fundamentals don't support the rally then it will collapse. if the market changes sentiment then it will continue
WARNING:
Volatility and rumors is a bad double whammy for Forex trading. in the last 4 days we did have 2 major rumors
-- BREXIT financial services deal
-- US & China trade deal
and all turned out to be false
The EURO Bulls have based the EURUSD & GBPUSD Rallies on this rumors . So long as they are false and fundamentals don't support the rally then it will collapse. if the market changes sentiment then it will continue
Comment:
EURUSD popped up again today in the last 15 minutes from around 1.1396 to 1.1415 and still popping
--- Its going to be very volatile today and tomorrow
-- The US Economy news was good today but the EURUSD kept just climbing . The US Dollar was mixed. The puzzling fundamental fact is that there is no BREXIT deal except rumors from Bloomberg News and Reuters about a financial services deal have been done but the EU members are saying NOTHING is completed and they are still in discussion .
So why would the EURUSD be moving up while taking a ride on the back of GBPUSD ?
-- EURUSD bulls trap may be ?
-- We are still in a BEARISH TREND so i would be careful to enter a long until 1.1435 is broken and we have a daily close above that. IF possible also above 200-Daily SMA
--- Its going to be very volatile today and tomorrow
-- The US Economy news was good today but the EURUSD kept just climbing . The US Dollar was mixed. The puzzling fundamental fact is that there is no BREXIT deal except rumors from Bloomberg News and Reuters about a financial services deal have been done but the EU members are saying NOTHING is completed and they are still in discussion .
So why would the EURUSD be moving up while taking a ride on the back of GBPUSD ?
-- EURUSD bulls trap may be ?
-- We are still in a BEARISH TREND so i would be careful to enter a long until 1.1435 is broken and we have a daily close above that. IF possible also above 200-Daily SMA
Now for a very light EU Economic news day and only Geopolitics, for EURUSD to put in 100 pips is usually suspect since US Economic Data was mixed today but our only confirmation is if EURUSD closes above 1.1435 and above 50-SMA. The actual EURUSD Bullish trend confirmation begins when EURUSD is above 200-SMA ( Currently at 1.1550 )