EXCAVO

EURUSD Global Cycles

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
I haven’t published forex analysis for a long time.

Last week I was at a forex conference in Dubai. And I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of the people at this conference.

That's why I want to look globally on the forex market.
Euro / Dollar ( EURUSD ) most popular pair

I showed large main cycles of 16 years.
Methodology:

1. Visually determine the full cycle (movement from minimum to minimum or from maximum to maximum)
2. We repeatedly confirm cyclicality over an accessible historical interval
3. We find the end and the beginning of a new cycle in current quotes and “continue” its construction in the future

If the cycle operates in the "past" - this is a guarantee of maintaining fluctuations with approximately the same period in the future - William Delbert Gann

If you know what part of the cycle you are in, you will always know when to buy and when to sell. William Delbert Gann

For example, you know that this is the end of a 16-year cycle, then you will only buy, not sell.

Each whole consists of small parts. A large 16 year cycle can also be broken down into smaller components. Divide the 16 year cycle in half, we get 8 year cycle. Divide the 8 year cycle again into 2 parts, we get 4 summer cycles.

Making a forecast for the EURUSD currency pair based on 16, 8, 4-year cycles, we can conclude that EURUSD has found some bottom, and this may be the beginning to continue the upward movement.

Cycles is not a trading system, it is just very good information for the trader to help him understand where the financial instrument is now, what we can potentially expect.
Each cycle will give one or another reaction, but this is NOT always exactly as we expect, the cycle can mark its end with inversion - a completely inverse reaction compared to history.
It is just necessary, according to the cycles, to pay more attention to the market, to wait for the continuation, according to the cycles in history, but also to be prepared that the market will respond to the cycle, but not what we expected.

We do not control the market and do not create any illusions on this score. We just observe it, what happened in history and what is happening now, and in accordance with what we see, we make trading decisions.

I am pleased to read your opinion about the global market vision in the comments.
Also if you read it to the end do not forget to like it is very important to me

Best regards EXCAVO
Comment: Apr 6, 2016
Trade active
Comment: What do you Think about it

Comments

How do you get data on the Euro before 1999? That is when the currency was formed.
+11 Reply
Bueno Excavo, top quality analysis as usual, it's good to see u back I to forex.
+3 Reply
The EURUSD still has some room to move downward before the expected move upward. The Weekly chart is still overbought but has started making its way down into the channel and will eventually become oversold. Once that happens, you can expect this big move to begin heading northward again because not only will the Weekly be heading up but I am showing that the Monthly chart is currently oversold. When the Weekly and Monthly are both oversold, then get ready for some big fireworks as this pair starts heading up!
+2 Reply
Thank you, its always a pleasure to read your cycle analytics. Im very excited to watch how the laws of mathematics work for currency movements in large time frames.
+2 Reply
Looking from a macro perspective, I don't see why the Euro would rally against the Dollar though. Seems highly unrealistic given the state of the European economy.
+2 Reply
Mokerkane WinVested
@WinVested, The EUR doesn't have to strengthen. The other half of the pair, the USD, can weaken, which would make EURUSD move higher.
Reply
well done mate!
+2 Reply
First, until today I didn`t know that the EURO is that old, second, how ugly must be the future for the USD, when a completely sick currency of a dooming EU will gain ground against it.
+2 Reply
@Gleipnir, Agreed. However I wonder how doomed the 'doomed EU' actually is? Main stream media paints an ugly apocalyptic picture yet from where I'm sitting (Southern Germany) truth could not be further away. Ten years ago Greece was a basket case yearning to crash out of the Euro experiment. As was Portugal for that matter and let's not forget the republic of Ireland. Fast forward to today, like Iceland, all these economies are actually the envy of others, how is this possible? I believe it's because they reached rock bottom and the rest of us don't want to acknowledge the medicine. The media doesn't seem to pay much attention these days to the PIGS, but you know the old saying, mud sticks.

The US dollar index is forming a massive rising wedge. Nearly every macro investor I know is long on the dollar, but something just doesn't make sense to me. How can you be long when so much has been printed from the magic money tree? And less not forget China, who has been buying up bullion like it's going out of fashion whilst on the other hand dumping US bonds. They've been doing this long before the trade wars took hold.

We're living in strange yet profound times.

+2 Reply
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