Technical:
On the Daily chart we have Intermediate, minor and minute waves. followed by Intermediate correctional waves. we also had a break to the downside from the symmetric triangle, where the support/resistance haven't been tested yet. The current price level/support is a support from 2004 and therefore have been tested many times and makes it a strong support/resistance area.
The price have had a strong upwards momentum, and this previously fall could be seen as a retracement, which is also correlating with the correctional intermediate waves. The price action and the waves are in harmony with fibonacci levels. we also have a hidden bullish divergence, (marked with red rings in the chart and the RSI)
Overall i see the EUR/USD bullish, with the technical and the fundamental taken in mind, i see that the data from the us is holding its pace, where the strong momentum of strong data, is set on a test in the coming period. if the price breaks current levels, i see a trend reversal to bearish, and the price could make some drastically falls.
_________
a long position can be taken now, and there is opportunity for a tight SL around 1.18900.
TP will be at correctional wave (B) between 1.22040 and 1.23060. which is 0.886 on fibonacci levels and the support/resistance line in the symmetric triangle.
(If the price breaks the 1.19090 ish the price could go further down to 1.17200, before a retracement will occur)
______________________
A short position is possible in the levels between 1.22040 and 1.23060. ( look for entries between this levels, see the chart in smaller time frames to confirm a short entry)
TP will be at around 1.17200 also the ending of the intermediate correctional wave (B)
( watch closely the (C) wave, as the levels can break for further upside)
_________
Fundamentals:
Monday the 7 May: German factories orders m/m Are expected to be 0,5% from 0,3% where last years numbers where 1.0% and from 2016 the numbers where 1.9%
PMI for retail m/m in the Euro zone are also given where previously data was at 50,1. Last years numbers where 52,7. and from 2016 the numbers where 47.9
From the us we have 3 FOMC Members speaking and numbers from Consumer credit.
Tuesday 8 May: German industrial production which is expected to rise 2.4% from -1,6% to 0.8%. where last years numbers where -0,4% and -1.3% in 2016 so definitely a rise YoY.
From US we have Fed chair Powell speaking with the conference title "Monetary Policy Influences on Global Financial Conditions and International Capital Flows" We also have Jolts job opening which is expected to be 0,03m higher than previously, from 6.02m to 6.05m
Wednesday 9 May: We have French industrial production numbers, Italian retail sales and and German 10Y bond auction.
From the US we have PPI m/m which is expected to fall 0.1% from 0,3% to 0,2% where 2017 numbers where 0,5% and 2016 numbers where -0,4%. Wholesales inventories is expected to rise from 0,5% to 0,6%. the same day we will have the crude oil inventories,
Thursday 10 May: French and German bank holiday. that can create low volatility on the dax. Economic bulletin is due, and Italian industrial production m/m.
From US we have CPI m/m which is expected to rise from -0,1% to 0.3% where last years numbers where 0,2% and from 2016 the numbers where 0,4%. Core CPI m/m is also due the same day where the numbers are expected to be at a steady level of 0,2% where last years numbers where 0,1% and from 2016 0,2%.
Unemployment claims are also due to rise from 211k to 219k
Friday May 11: Draghi is speaking. from the US we have Prelim consumer sentiment. the numbers are expected to fall from 98.8 to 98.4.
On the Daily chart we have Intermediate, minor and minute waves. followed by Intermediate correctional waves. we also had a break to the downside from the symmetric triangle, where the support/resistance haven't been tested yet. The current price level/support is a support from 2004 and therefore have been tested many times and makes it a strong support/resistance area.
The price have had a strong upwards momentum, and this previously fall could be seen as a retracement, which is also correlating with the correctional intermediate waves. The price action and the waves are in harmony with fibonacci levels. we also have a hidden bullish divergence, (marked with red rings in the chart and the RSI)
Overall i see the EUR/USD bullish, with the technical and the fundamental taken in mind, i see that the data from the us is holding its pace, where the strong momentum of strong data, is set on a test in the coming period. if the price breaks current levels, i see a trend reversal to bearish, and the price could make some drastically falls.
_________
a long position can be taken now, and there is opportunity for a tight SL around 1.18900.
TP will be at correctional wave (B) between 1.22040 and 1.23060. which is 0.886 on fibonacci levels and the support/resistance line in the symmetric triangle.
(If the price breaks the 1.19090 ish the price could go further down to 1.17200, before a retracement will occur)
______________________
A short position is possible in the levels between 1.22040 and 1.23060. ( look for entries between this levels, see the chart in smaller time frames to confirm a short entry)
TP will be at around 1.17200 also the ending of the intermediate correctional wave (B)
( watch closely the (C) wave, as the levels can break for further upside)
_________
Fundamentals:
Monday the 7 May: German factories orders m/m Are expected to be 0,5% from 0,3% where last years numbers where 1.0% and from 2016 the numbers where 1.9%
PMI for retail m/m in the Euro zone are also given where previously data was at 50,1. Last years numbers where 52,7. and from 2016 the numbers where 47.9
From the us we have 3 FOMC Members speaking and numbers from Consumer credit.
Tuesday 8 May: German industrial production which is expected to rise 2.4% from -1,6% to 0.8%. where last years numbers where -0,4% and -1.3% in 2016 so definitely a rise YoY.
From US we have Fed chair Powell speaking with the conference title "Monetary Policy Influences on Global Financial Conditions and International Capital Flows" We also have Jolts job opening which is expected to be 0,03m higher than previously, from 6.02m to 6.05m
Wednesday 9 May: We have French industrial production numbers, Italian retail sales and and German 10Y bond auction.
From the US we have PPI m/m which is expected to fall 0.1% from 0,3% to 0,2% where 2017 numbers where 0,5% and 2016 numbers where -0,4%. Wholesales inventories is expected to rise from 0,5% to 0,6%. the same day we will have the crude oil inventories,
Thursday 10 May: French and German bank holiday. that can create low volatility on the dax. Economic bulletin is due, and Italian industrial production m/m.
From US we have CPI m/m which is expected to rise from -0,1% to 0.3% where last years numbers where 0,2% and from 2016 the numbers where 0,4%. Core CPI m/m is also due the same day where the numbers are expected to be at a steady level of 0,2% where last years numbers where 0,1% and from 2016 0,2%.
Unemployment claims are also due to rise from 211k to 219k
Friday May 11: Draghi is speaking. from the US we have Prelim consumer sentiment. the numbers are expected to fall from 98.8 to 98.4.