DanV
Long

EURUSD - Likely to Resume Uptrend

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1468 26 15
Many notable Banks, Fundamental & Technical Analysts have been calling EURUSD             lower almost ever since it formed significant low in July 2012.

Many have been focusing on what looks like rising wedge which if correct then on completion it would implicate bearish action to at least price retracing to the beginning of the wedge .

According to many analyst this wedge is being formed from the July 2012 low and completed at recent high, however, this is being incorrectly interpreted.

Whilst it has moved broadly side ways for most of 2014 so far, I believe it is forming a base with 1.3450 1.340 holding it has every possibilities for it to head higher and complete the larger AB = CD measured mover to 1. 44             area.

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As always this is my view based on my interpretation of price action and suggest you do your own analysis for your trade planning.
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Any particular reason why this hasn't played out? Appreciate the charts.
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DanV MOD MichaelSt George-Yorke
Yes. The pace and magnitude of the decline was more than anticipated. This is more significant to short term traders. If any planned a long trades based on this analysis might have either not had confirmation for long or at worst had to take a loss. However, the overall concept and anticipation of bigger picture has not changed. ie the low that will be formed at lower level is going to be significant and not one where it will just have dead cat bounce and EUR then plummet to say 1.20 or lower still as many are now suggesting.

You will the above thought in my subsequent published chart and further update added today. I hope this goes some way to answer your question.

If you have alternative suggestion and explanation why it did not play out, I would be eager to hear it. Thanks for your question in the meantime.
+1 Reply
So WXY is like a sub-ABC ?
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In this case obviously the move anticipated has changed to potentially full 5 wave impulsive decline. However, WXY normally marks a zigzag where there are no clear 5 wave counts on any of the swings of the zigzag which could be labelled abc zigzag which required at least the wave c of the zigzag to have 5 wave internal structure. Hope this helps.
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Dan pls check n comment on c of B count http://prntscr.com/4b48ti
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DanV MOD mkdeep04
Hi. Yes the minor 5 wave decline of wave "c" of B went little further than originally anticipated. So your labels now would be more reflective of the price action. So assuming that is correct we should have bottom in place and experience a strong bounce at the minimum, but more likely, a new up trend could develop. Hope this helps.
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Upon going over H4 time frame chart, I have relabelled the last sequence from May 2014 high and it seems that move down from July high we have not abc decline but rather potential falling wedge ie "Ending Diagonal 3-3-3-3-3. If this is the case we should form bottom near 1.3480 but 1.3450 in extreme spike move. Should this develop then It would give me greater confidence in my larger time frame expectation.
snapshot
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On shorter time frame EURUSD chart suggest that we could have a bounce early in the week but could end the week being lower as it complete the minor wave iv and v of "c" around support zone and other Fib confluence at 1.3450 -1.340
snapshot
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Great sync with USDOLLAR, pretty good time amity (though EUR is just 25% of the index)
You have definitely put some work in it.
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