DanV
Long

EURUSD - Primed for Continued Bullish outlook

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Price action since late Oct             2013 is being interpreted as potential rising wedge by many and hence EURUSD             is close to forming a top for reversal or at least substantial retracement. Others continue to point to a much larger contacting triangle with bearish implication.

I could be wrong, however I do not subscribe to that view. From my chart, which, I have posted many times in the past with only minors changes in overall analysis, I think we are in longer term bullish cycle for EURUSD             . Based on AB=CD measured move I have been of the opinion that EUR would at least reach 1.44 area before we have any significant retracement. In addition the price action since October 2013 noted above which many are interpreting as rising wedge is in fact a running flat. If correct then we are in new cycle leg up with 1.44 as the potential target. Secondly, We have broken above the February 2013 high and seems to have just retested as support and have moved up strongly, completing minor 5 waves making larger wave 1. So short term retracement starting from opening for this week is possible but should revert to the upside.
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Here is the shorter time frame chart showing the impulsive move of the low with possible short term pull back before continuing up in bullish action.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
snapshot
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traderWgun
2 years ago
I have to ask; what is wave (b) suppose to be?

As far as I know, the only typ of correction that can make a new high above wave a (or 1 or 3 for that matter) is a flat.
Within a WXY(Z) you could have a wave w, y or z as a flat, but that would mean that wave b(within wave w) should be label as the new high,
and wave c of w should be the low.

Or is this complex correction within wave b, and not wave (b)? That would make more sense, but the labelling is a bit confusing :)
In that case I would still like to argue that a double correction wave b can't make a new high above wave a,
and that wave b has to be a flat to do just that. In this case wave c was not in 5 waves, so that means wave (b) is not a flat.
You can check out my count here if you want
UPDATE No signs of a reversal as of yet


This is as far as I know, but I'm sure you have more expecerince and would like to hear your thoughts if it's not to much trouble :)
Good luck!
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DanV MOD traderWgun
2 years ago
I have wave (a) in pink as potential leading diagonal. Then we have running flat correction consisting of wave a down and zigzag wave b up and wave c down to complete wave (b) in pink. Now if this labels are correct then what should follow is wave (c) in pink that should be impulsive consisting of 5 minor waves. Bye the wave your Larger Wave (A) & (B) I have then as (W) & (X). The reason for this is that I am expecting Larger ZigZag without wave (C). So far there is no evidence to suggest that we are going to have (C) ie impulsive 5 wave. In any a,b,c zigzag, wave c always have 5 impulsive internal waves. Hope that explains.
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traderWgun DanV
2 years ago
"Then we have running flat correction consisting of wave a down and zigzag wave b up and wave c down to complete wave (b) in pink."

I think you mean wave b was a double zigzag?
In other words, you think it's ok for a wave b double correction to take out wave a high?
As I said, I have never seen this kind of wave structure before, but it do make sense.
It can also be counted as a simple double correction.

Re. my larger wave (A) and (B), there are more as place holders. I think eurusd is doing a larger triangle
and this move is within that triangle, it could be that the move is a double zigzag as your idea suggests,
but it could also be wave (A) was a zigzag and wave (C) is a complex wave up, even though the ratios
between wave w and y in my count are not very good (w is much shorter than wave y)

Thx for the explaination.
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fero
2 years ago
no bullish but bullshit
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DanV MOD fero
2 years ago
Hmmmm, that is highly intelligent comment. One that could speak to the world you know it all and that you are excellent analyst. Hope that excites you. Can't say any more than that.
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Deus
2 years ago
looks like EU has time to complete pink (b) before taking off on Yellen's speech
EUR short before FOMC
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DanV MOD Deus
2 years ago
Yes. Quite possible or just partial retracement of the last up leg. I think it was an impulse leg up so only expecting a partial retracement. Thanks for your comment
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Deus DanV
2 years ago
It indeed looks like motive wave however difficult to count subwaves too even. Missing 3rd distinct wave. I think market is fooling us with it. Overall look and feel also leaves room for more downside.
snapshot
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Deus DanV
2 years ago
Look at this wave. Many people thought that was the first motive wave down (I was one of them) but the market simply continued going up so we had to take it as the part of bigger correction
snapshot
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DanV MOD Deus
2 years ago
That motive wave down you are correct. But that was wave "a" of abc correction and what we have since then is running flat where wave c is actually higher than low of wave "a". So the recent move up of the low is indeed impulsive.
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michael.k.nguyen.9 DanV
2 years ago
So what was wrong with your analysis? After your post, the EUR/USD tumbled down and never went near 1.44
I'm not trying to bash on your chart, but I think it would be great to review the chart and see what might went wrong.
This way we get better at analyzing.
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DanV MOD michael.k.nguyen.9
2 years ago
Thanks for your question. It retraced more than I originally anticipated. Also keep in mind that I do not necessarily update all my charts I publish as frequently as many wish me to. Also I am looking at much bigger picture and in that some adverse excursions do take place. Just as much as you might have not got every thing absolutely right. But you can make up your own mind on what went wrong with my analysis, not for me to explain. However if you are really interested as you suggest then please take a look at the updated chart at
EURUSD - Likely to Form Reversal Low
Hope this help to answer your question.
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