Price action since late Oct 2013 is being interpreted as potential rising wedge by many and hence EURUSD is close to forming a top for reversal or at least substantial retracement. Others continue to point to a much larger contacting triangle with bearish implication.
I could be wrong, however I do not subscribe to that view. From my chart, which, I have posted many times in the past with only minors changes in overall analysis, I think we are in longer term bullish cycle for EURUSD. Based on AB=CD measured move I have been of the opinion that EUR would at least reach 1.44 area before we have any significant retracement. In addition the price action since October 2013 noted above which many are interpreting as rising wedge is in fact a running flat. If correct then we are in new cycle leg up with 1.44 as the potential target. Secondly, We have broken above the February 2013 high and seems to have just retested as support and have moved up strongly, completing minor 5 waves making larger wave 1. So short term retracement starting from opening for this week is possible but should revert to the upside.
I could be wrong, however I do not subscribe to that view. From my chart, which, I have posted many times in the past with only minors changes in overall analysis, I think we are in longer term bullish cycle for EURUSD. Based on AB=CD measured move I have been of the opinion that EUR would at least reach 1.44 area before we have any significant retracement. In addition the price action since October 2013 noted above which many are interpreting as rising wedge is in fact a running flat. If correct then we are in new cycle leg up with 1.44 as the potential target. Secondly, We have broken above the February 2013 high and seems to have just retested as support and have moved up strongly, completing minor 5 waves making larger wave 1. So short term retracement starting from opening for this week is possible but should revert to the upside.
