Tight Short: This is a very tight short , so cancel it if does not materialize. You want to take small profits since EURUSD is still in a range
Entry: 1.1725 to 1.1663
Exit : 1.1649 to 1.1588
AUTOs -- Cars and Trucks
EU:
EU imposes 10% tariffs on Small cars ( Passenger cars)
EU imposes 10% tariffs on Trucks and SUVs ( pickups and delivery vans) from US
EU imposes 1.7% tariffs on Train Carriages
US:
US imposes 2.5% tariffs on small cars ( Passenger cars) from EU
US imposes 25% tariffs on Trucks and SUVs ( pickups and delivery vans) from EU
US imposes 14% on Train Carriages
US Auto companies ( FORD, GM, CHRYSLER , etc ) make over 60% of their profits from Trucks and SUVs so the better European TRUCKs & SUVs can't really compete in US and they are loosing out on that.
If US removes 25% Tariffs then that will extremely undercut the US auto companies and make EU car makers the winners.
Five of the top six vehicles that’ll be shipped from U.S. auto plants and bought by buyers in EU countries this year will be German models, including South Carolina-built BMW X3 sport utility vehicles and Alabama-assembled Mercedes GLE SUVs, according to LMC Automotive.
German Branded, American Built:
BMW and Mercedes models would stand to gain from lower EU tariffs
Estimated 2018 Sales in Europe of US Assembled Vehicles ( Highest to lowest )
BMW X3 --- 69.6K
BMW X5 --- 33.5K
Mercedes GLE---31.7K
BMW X4 --- 23.5K
Tesla Model S --- 14.8K
BMW X6 --- 13.8K
Ford Mustang -- 12.2K
Mercedes GLE Coupe --- 11.6K
Tesla Model X --- 10.6K
Jeep Grand Cherokee --- 10.3K
American-made models from the Detroit Three -- General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV -- are expected to remain rare sights on European roads. The best-selling U.S.-assembled car this year by an American company will probably be Tesla Inc.’s Model S sedan, according to LMC’s projections
German Built, American Bought:
Mercedes, BMW and Audi models are top-sellers imported to U.S. from EU
Estimated 2018 Sales in US of European Assembled Vehicles ( Highest to lowest )
Jeep Renegade --- 102.4K
Mercedes GLC --- 59.1K
Honda Civic --- 54.8K
BMW 3 Series --- 48.2K
BMW 5 Series --- 42.1K
Mercedes E-Class--- 36.3K
Audi Q7 --- 34.8K
BMW 4 Series --- 33.5K
Audi A4 -- 30.7K
BMW X1 --- 29.9K
In Short: If we go to 0% tariffs then European Car makers ( BMW, Mercedes , VW ) will outright win and the American Car makers ( Ford, GM , Chrysler, Tesla) will loose . The auto trade reality is very different from the politics.
NOTE: US car companies make over 60% of profits from Trucks & SUVs and if that protection is removed they will be decimated by better quality European Trucks and SUVs.
Logically as trader i fail to understand why US administration would want to go 0% tariffs . They can't compete in both Europe or US because European car makers have better quality cars that are attractive to EU and US buyers but US car makers are not going to gain a lot market share in Europe for Small cars simply because they are getting rid of most of the small cars models and are not making any profits.
EUROPE ---- Superior quality Passenger Cars , Trucks and SUVs --- They sell more --- if tariffs is 0% -- they will sell more than they are doing now.
US --- Standard quality Passenger Cars , Trucks and SUVs --- they sell less --- if tariffs is 0% --- they even sell less than they are now.
i don't like tariffs at all but in this tariff war --- EU wins if we go to 0% but US Wins if they impose 25%
Entry: 1.1725 to 1.1663
Exit : 1.1649 to 1.1588
AUTOs -- Cars and Trucks
EU:
EU imposes 10% tariffs on Small cars ( Passenger cars)
EU imposes 10% tariffs on Trucks and SUVs ( pickups and delivery vans) from US
EU imposes 1.7% tariffs on Train Carriages
US:
US imposes 2.5% tariffs on small cars ( Passenger cars) from EU
US imposes 25% tariffs on Trucks and SUVs ( pickups and delivery vans) from EU
US imposes 14% on Train Carriages
US Auto companies ( FORD, GM, CHRYSLER , etc ) make over 60% of their profits from Trucks and SUVs so the better European TRUCKs & SUVs can't really compete in US and they are loosing out on that.
If US removes 25% Tariffs then that will extremely undercut the US auto companies and make EU car makers the winners.
Five of the top six vehicles that’ll be shipped from U.S. auto plants and bought by buyers in EU countries this year will be German models, including South Carolina-built BMW X3 sport utility vehicles and Alabama-assembled Mercedes GLE SUVs, according to LMC Automotive.
German Branded, American Built:
BMW and Mercedes models would stand to gain from lower EU tariffs
Estimated 2018 Sales in Europe of US Assembled Vehicles ( Highest to lowest )
BMW X3 --- 69.6K
BMW X5 --- 33.5K
Mercedes GLE---31.7K
BMW X4 --- 23.5K
Tesla Model S --- 14.8K
BMW X6 --- 13.8K
Ford Mustang -- 12.2K
Mercedes GLE Coupe --- 11.6K
Tesla Model X --- 10.6K
Jeep Grand Cherokee --- 10.3K
American-made models from the Detroit Three -- General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV -- are expected to remain rare sights on European roads. The best-selling U.S.-assembled car this year by an American company will probably be Tesla Inc.’s Model S sedan, according to LMC’s projections
German Built, American Bought:
Mercedes, BMW and Audi models are top-sellers imported to U.S. from EU
Estimated 2018 Sales in US of European Assembled Vehicles ( Highest to lowest )
Jeep Renegade --- 102.4K
Mercedes GLC --- 59.1K
Honda Civic --- 54.8K
BMW 3 Series --- 48.2K
BMW 5 Series --- 42.1K
Mercedes E-Class--- 36.3K
Audi Q7 --- 34.8K
BMW 4 Series --- 33.5K
Audi A4 -- 30.7K
BMW X1 --- 29.9K
In Short: If we go to 0% tariffs then European Car makers ( BMW, Mercedes , VW ) will outright win and the American Car makers ( Ford, GM , Chrysler, Tesla) will loose . The auto trade reality is very different from the politics.
NOTE: US car companies make over 60% of profits from Trucks & SUVs and if that protection is removed they will be decimated by better quality European Trucks and SUVs.
Logically as trader i fail to understand why US administration would want to go 0% tariffs . They can't compete in both Europe or US because European car makers have better quality cars that are attractive to EU and US buyers but US car makers are not going to gain a lot market share in Europe for Small cars simply because they are getting rid of most of the small cars models and are not making any profits.
EUROPE ---- Superior quality Passenger Cars , Trucks and SUVs --- They sell more --- if tariffs is 0% -- they will sell more than they are doing now.
US --- Standard quality Passenger Cars , Trucks and SUVs --- they sell less --- if tariffs is 0% --- they even sell less than they are now.
i don't like tariffs at all but in this tariff war --- EU wins if we go to 0% but US Wins if they impose 25%
The EURUSD is still Bearish but at the moment trading within a bigger range . I would try SELL any weak rally until we are above 1.1790