Trade war began. Dollar passed the week under the pressure caused by the trade war worries. USD hit by soft unemployment data and wages growth figures under the expectations on the last day of the week.
On the Euro side, less hawkish but far from dovish minutes was the catalyst of the move. Reports indicating that "ECB's policymakers believe that rising rates by the end of 2019 would be too late" was another catalyst.
This week we will have the figures both from Eurozone and U.S. But I believe that the trade war will be the most determining factor of this week.
EURUSD tested 1.17700 50 in the and ended the week at 1.17420. This is the Fibonacci 23.6 % retracement of the latest decline started in April. We can easily say that the medium term trend is and the pair will be under selling pressure as long as it holds below 1.18500.
In the H4 chart timeframe, the price is above 50,100 and 200. And we see a crossover of 50 and 100 with value.
We see a as seen in the below chart. As the price dropped below Fib 78.6 % of AB but did not close below, we can say this is a valid . The area of entry is between 1.17780 - Fib 1.27 of BC - and 1.18400 Fib 1.618 of BC . Although 1.17780 is confirmed by the MM +2/8 extremely overshoot, considering the C dropped below the perfect ratios, I predict the major retracement will take place near 1.18400.
Conclusion: Upward price movements are selling opportunities until the price breaks and make daily closings above 1.18500.
Upside: 1.17800 1.18200 1.8500
Dowside: 1.17180 1.16880 1.16500