EURUSD
We expect EUR to 'weak further' last Friday but we think it 'unlikely to break key support at 1.0850 today'. Our view on EUR weakness is correct even though it has slightly breached 1.0845 (lowest is 1.0840). While severely oversold, EUR's weakness remains volatile. However, key support at 1.0850 may be out of reach today. Resistance is at 1.0872, followed by 1.0890. Last Friday (May 12, spot at 1.0920) we turned negative for the EUR and emphasized that it 'could likely drop lower in the coming days'. We added, 'the level to watch is 1.0855, as a break of this key support is likely to trigger a sharp and rapid drop in EUR'. While our view is not wrong, we do not fully expect EUR to breach 1.0855 so quickly as it plummets to lows of 1.0840 (-0.60%). There is no change in our EUR negative view and the next level to watch is 1.0850. Looking forward, if EUR can break and sustain below 1.0850, the next level to focus on is 1.0725. We will keep our negative view on EUR as long as it doesn't break above 1.0940 ('strong resistance' was 1.0995 last Friday).
