ferGOD

$EUR/USD - Euro Putin a Tight Spot (short-term)

Short
OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Are Elliott waves pointing to a military incident in Europe?

Gotland is a Swedish island in the middle of the Baltic Sea, commanding a key strategic position. In 1915, the Battle of Gotland was a crucial moment in The Great War, with the navy of the German Empire being defeated by that of the Russian Empire. Assisting the Russian navy that day was a British submarine. It’s fair to say that such an allied arrangement is unthinkable today.

Sweden has just sent troops to Gotland to shore up its defenses as alarm over Russian belligerence grows. This is a significant development and ups the ante in the stand-off between NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and Russia. Tensions in Eastern Europe have been rising for the last few years as it became clear that President Putin of Russia was intent on re-establishing, if not the land mass, then certainly, the psychology of the Russian Empire. The 100,000 Russian troops parked on the border with Ukraine is testament to that. With NATO-Russian talks at a stalemate, the jungle drums of conflict are getting louder.

If there were to be a military incident in Eastern Europe, then most people would think that the European Union euro would fall in value, at least initially. Such is the conventional causality thinking. It often seems like this when an event happens, but if we look closely, then a lot of the time we can see that Elliott waves were pointing to the financial market movement before the event took place. Check out the chart of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar and you will see a very distinct triangle, pointing towards a weaker lira, ending in June 2016. In July 2016, a military coup was attempted in Turkey coinciding with a big slide in the lira (I remember a Turkish economist colleague of mine at the time being completely unable to comprehend how the financial markets might be able to somehow anticipate an event like that).

Right now, the Elliott wave count for EUR-USD is suggesting that either a decline is underway immediately, or that a marginal new high above 1.1483 is required before a multi-big figure tumble.

Could this coming depreciation of the euro coincide with a military incident in Eastern Europe?

Do not be surprised if it does!.
Comment: EURO/DOLLAR - Long-term

Comment: We've adjusted the internals of wave C to suggest an impulse is unfolding.

Five waves are visible in wave C of the proposed wave (2) expanded flat.

It seems like wave (2) is about to finish in the form of a flat pattern. If correct, the market should break 1.14950 shortly.

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