DanV
Long

EURUSD - Could it be the "come back kid"? - Updated.

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
3719 57 26
Since publishing the last chart almost 3 weeks ago, the anticipated low appears to have formed in the shape of rising wedge or leading diagonal as minor wave 1 and subsequent retracement could be near completion suggesting wave 2 could provide higher low and confirmation would be higher prices in the coming week.

You should still take close look at the chart and details including some additional charts in the comments in the last chart to save repeating here.

With above in mind, now would be a good time to consider reasons why we should look for evidence of this low being respected. Rather than be carried over with over exuberance Anti - EURUSD             fever and EUR bashing. This is not to say that the Eurozone itself is out on the woods yet but a decent retracement is in order at the minimum and that it could be at the inflection point with potential reversal on the horizon.

1. Seasonal is now supportive of EURUSD             gaining Vs USD Check the link : http://www.equityclock.com/charts/euro-forex-fxeur-seasonal-chart/

2. Commitment of Traders report of 18th Nov 2014 seems to be suggesting longs reducing position and shorts increasing which I suspect has gone more extreme. The scheduled report on Monday (normally released on Friday but due to holiday on Thursday is delayed) will likely confirm - Link: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

3. Overwhelming, traders sentiments is very bearish which in it self cannot help time the market precisely but add to overall analysis when considered in conjunction with other factors.

4. In the intermarket & correlation analysis it seems that DXY             could have topped at critical level I will post this chart in the comments section with both daily and intraday hourly chart which if correct would also confirm corresponding bottom in EURUSD             .

As this is long range analysis, it is not possible to pinpoint exact level but only identify general area of interest.

Any trades should be based on your own analysis and confirmation with suitable money management.

If you have viable alternatives rather than just saying EUR is doomed, please share it with me.

If have not already select to follow me and the chart for future updates and comments.

Thanks for you time reading through my analysis.

DanV
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
DXY Long term Chart with possible time symmetry
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DXY Daily Chart - with wave counts suggesting at least an intermediate top if not the major one
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2use DanV
Makes you think doesnt it? Each time i look at a negative divergence, something tells me this may not be just it...each time i look past it once it actually acted, i regret i did not use that when i first looked. and now looking at DXY...how much of a run is left anyway?
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Correct, negative divergence some time play out really well, at other time it can persist and get multiple divergences over the period and yet other times it can fail too. So it needs to be taken into consideration with other factors. If it suggest possible end of the cycle with other factors such as structural support or resistance, Fibs etc it could carry greater significance. But not to be used blindly.
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Hourly chart suggesting the last rally is retracement rally. If correct then we could see DXY weakening in coming days.
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If EURUSD has bottomed then other EUR pairs could also become very interesting. EURCAD in particular and to some extent EURGBP, EURAUD & EURNZD.
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DanV MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
You probably mean in straight line right. That is no retracement is permitted. Hmm, OK thanks.
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DanV MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
Thankyou very much for that.
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coondawg71 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
agreed !
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thank you danv this for this perfect chart analise.
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DanV MOD PIPFOLLOWER
YW
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As it is in markets, if we see a countertrend rally brewing then this bullishness shall be killed first :) Remember those who go first die like in any war. Hence we wait for one last bear attack.
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well .. this is nice! i like, thanks for sharing.
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Don't know about that, seems like nobody wants to buy above 1.25. Maybe people are finally getting it that this whole Euro debacle won't work. They had years to make something out of it, and it keeps on getting worse. I live in Europe, and wish we could turn back the clock. More and more people think alike over here. From a technical point of view, it can rebound (maybe). From a fundamental point of view, I'd say no. Still short at 1.253 and holding, probably for years to come.
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PIPFOLLOWER gunne821
price is long who trust danv he will win. who dont trust he will lose
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gunne821 PIPFOLLOWER
I trust common sense. This is today's news.
=>Eurozone manufacturing PMI data approached contraction levels at 50.1 for November, beneath forecasts for an unchanged print at the flash post of 50.4. Italy, Germany and France factory PMI posts all fell below the 50 level, signaling contraction. Investors have been divided on likely results of Thursday’s ECB policy decision. ECB President Draghi’s remarks asserting the central bank would take steps to fight deflation “without delay” and “…do what we must do to raise inflation and inflationary expectations as fast as possible” had initially driven expectations for a full-blown package of quantitative easing. However, follow-on assertions by ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio noted the region not at risk of full-blown deflation and suggested policymakers may await indications of prior measures’ success before initiating new actions, perhaps in Q12015. Today’s gains in European bourses appear the result of QE hopes, however. The euro is trading 0.2% lower against the dollar.

Europe is indeed the old, sluggish continent of the world that lags...Thank God for the US, or we would be in a world wide recession once again. ECB can't make the same swift actions, like the FED does. We are years behind, and now pay the cost. Here and there, you might see a technical bounce, but overall the trend will be down for the foreseeable future. Just my opinion.
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PIPFOLLOWER PIPFOLLOWER
long
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We could be very close and it might be capitulation move. Possible low now at 88.6% retracement of June 2010 - April 2011 swing and rising trendline support.
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Don't bet the house on it...I go for parity within a year or two...As I mentioned before, the ECB is not as swift (able), as the FED. It's a weak project from the start, and that won't change for a long time...Money outflows from EU into the US galore...Hell, even now they can't seem to agree, and charters prevent the necessary moves. And I guess another "whatever it takes" speech won't help this time either, as Draghi himself said, he really had no clue...
Worth reading=> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/last-time-euro-hit-these-levels-europe-was-total-collapse.

Thanks for your continuing input on tradingview anyway, even if I don't agree.
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DanV MOD gunne821
YW. Market always oscillate as you well know. So even it it does not reverse, retracements are part and parcel of general swings. So looking for evidence of bottom and then planning your trade with money management in place, there is nothing wrong. But acknowledge your comments. Thanks
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I agree on that, I mentioned that above, we might see a technical bounce here and there, but I can't see the main trend reversing in the foreseeable future.
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i think this move is impossible, hard fundamentally down
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Well at last there is good reason to believe that significant low in EURUSD might have formed as posted live in the chat just before ECB event today.
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2use DanV
if 1.25 - a buy?
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1.25 could validate the trendline break. Then it could pull back or retrace say 38.6% or 50% for possible long entry.
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Subsequent follow up charts
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2use DanV
Great job! thanx!
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YW. Hope full we will get follow through and the reversal could be validated.
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2use DanV
Ill try to keep an eye, but as i am not a pro, it is not that easy here since the last changes made to limit charts - cant even make it mine to do a temporary assessment now :\
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It seems we have initial minor 5 wave cycle up. Then an abc zigzag retracement may be back to 1.2350 zone or little deeper combined with bullish action could give me greater confidence in new bullish cycle.
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what do u think at the moment? 1,2176
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DanV MOD Recluse82
Whilst cannot rule out any further weakness, but I would be on the later for any confirmation of low is in as bounce will be strong with so many bears having to close and buy back.
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on monthly chart there is an abcde triangle pattern, after some pullback sholud break down toward 1,10-1,15.
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DanV MOD Recluse82
Not sure of ABCDE triangle though it might have the look. But here is what I though some while back considering this potential triangle in my previous chart published some 2 months ago.
EURUSD - Likely to Form Reversal Low
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i saw this, but what would indicate going back to 1,40?
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DanV MOD Recluse82
Yes, If however it does not then at least some 38.6 or 50% fib retrace could follow then more severe decline that could take it well below 1.20. So the price action of the bounce will help clarify.
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so 1,30-1,32?
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DanV MOD Recluse82
That seems more likely right now.
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2use DanV
I go for fibs at least. problem is where would it start as it edged lower already
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If you mean as a retracement then possibly April high to current low being formed which is still in process I think but should complete soon.
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2use DanV
yes...nbut soon is vague. still...im watching 1.20 as an important level
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yes, possible
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http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=519103

maybe this is the answer for a while
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mkdeep04 Recluse82
eu been playing with our mind for sometime.. every time we bottom and same pullup.. bears find way to bring price down.. i dont see deceive move until 2week of jan.
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DanV MOD mkdeep04
I agree. Most USD pairs have been stretched with DXY also reaching resistance zone and looks extended. So at this moment I am looking for possible retracement on most USD related instruments either in development right now or could soon in Jan.
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Psychologically, when 90% keep thinking that there should be a correction in SPX, DXy...etc, all the more Fed would want to push it higher.. aint it
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DanV MOD jangseohee
Yes, that is true. But at the moment I think the sentiments is the other way round ie 90% bullish the USD. So will see how this plays out.
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Lets see whether the my "mirror" can reflect well :-)
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DanV MOD jangseohee
I think it will. But which way is more important. Thanks for sharing.
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no mention
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down. eu looks very very ugly now
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FreeGekko jangseohee
I agree. Nobody realises that QE has disrupted the EURUSD this much.
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Recluse82 jangseohee
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=519103
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jangseohee Recluse82
They should be the one getting the Oscar award, these bloody actors LOL
They are creating dramas :-)
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