Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed!
The market digests positive earnings reports and economic optimism, driving various assets higher. Among them, the Australian Dollar surges on the back of robust employment data. Investors are analyzing corporate earnings reports and economic indicators to gauge the health of the global economy.
The Australian Dollar has seen significant gains following the release of strong employment data, indicating positive economic momentum in the country.
Key News:
USA - Initial Jobless Claims
USA - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
USA - Existing Home Sales (Jun)
On Wednesday evening, Dow futures experienced a decline, following the earlier surge in major benchmark averages, reaching new 15-month highs. Traders were closely analyzing the quarterly earnings results of significant companies reported during the session. The market was in the process of digesting this corporate financial data to assess its potential impact on future trends.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart
Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a positive outlook on the current economic conditions in the United States, which was well-received by the markets. The decreasing inflation has fostered optimism about the US economy's potential for a smooth landing. Yellen's confidence in the labor market cooling down without significant distress has further contributed to this positive sentiment.
If economic data continues to support this optimistic view, the market is likely to maintain confidence in a soft economic landing, leading to a gradual decline in the value of the US dollar. The S&P 500 index experienced a 0.7% increase yesterday, approaching levels last seen in early April when inflation concerns were more pronounced.
S&P 500 daily chart
The recent retail sales data from the US also supports the idea of a soft economic landing, with consumer spending showing growth, albeit at a slower pace. Despite this positive economic outlook, the yen is currently underperforming, as carry trades gain favor in the market. In Japan, the TOPIX index experienced a 1.0% increase, and the 10-year swap rate retreated after reaching highs earlier this month, surpassing 0.70% on Friday for the first time since March.
TOPIX daily chart
Governor Ueda's comments at the G20 summit in India have played a role in the recent rebound of USD/JPY and the decline in longer-term yields. His statement emphasized that achieving the 2% inflation goal is still a distant prospect, reaffirming the unchanged assumption reiterated in the overall narrative.
USD/JPY daily chart
The market's response to Governor Ueda's comments has tempered speculation about an immediate yield curve control (YCC) change in the upcoming week. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might still make adjustments to YCC during the July meeting based on updated forecasts. Although yields currently show no upward pressure and are within the 0.50% band limit, the upcoming CPI data on Friday will be pivotal and could reignite speculation depending on the results.
On Thursday, the Australian dollar saw a substantial surge after the release of better-than-expected employment data in the country. Australia's net employment rose by 32,600 in June, exceeding market expectations for the second consecutive month of a 15,000 increase. As a result of this positive economic news, the Australian dollar surged more than 0.9% to reach an intraday high of $0.6834.
AUD/USD daily chart
On the other hand, the British pound suffered notable losses due to disappointing inflation data that fell short of market expectations. As a result, the market's anticipation of further aggressive interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) diminished. However, the pound managed to stage a slight recovery, gaining 0.15% to trade at $1.2958, after experiencing a decline of over 0.7% on the previous day.
GBP/USD daily chart
The euro, on the other hand, strengthened by 0.24% against the US dollar, reaching $1.1227. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting for additional insights into the rate outlook. Recently, ECB policymakers have adopted a more dovish stance, with some indicating uncertainty about future rate increases beyond the likely 25 basis points increase expected in July.
The market digests positive earnings reports and economic optimism, driving various assets higher. Among them, the Australian Dollar surges on the back of robust employment data. Investors are analyzing corporate earnings reports and economic indicators to gauge the health of the global economy.
The Australian Dollar has seen significant gains following the release of strong employment data, indicating positive economic momentum in the country.
Key News:
USA - Initial Jobless Claims
USA - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
USA - Existing Home Sales (Jun)
On Wednesday evening, Dow futures experienced a decline, following the earlier surge in major benchmark averages, reaching new 15-month highs. Traders were closely analyzing the quarterly earnings results of significant companies reported during the session. The market was in the process of digesting this corporate financial data to assess its potential impact on future trends.
Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a positive outlook on the current economic conditions in the United States, which was well-received by the markets. The decreasing inflation has fostered optimism about the US economy's potential for a smooth landing. Yellen's confidence in the labor market cooling down without significant distress has further contributed to this positive sentiment.
If economic data continues to support this optimistic view, the market is likely to maintain confidence in a soft economic landing, leading to a gradual decline in the value of the US dollar. The S&P 500 index experienced a 0.7% increase yesterday, approaching levels last seen in early April when inflation concerns were more pronounced.
The recent retail sales data from the US also supports the idea of a soft economic landing, with consumer spending showing growth, albeit at a slower pace. Despite this positive economic outlook, the yen is currently underperforming, as carry trades gain favor in the market. In Japan, the TOPIX index experienced a 1.0% increase, and the 10-year swap rate retreated after reaching highs earlier this month, surpassing 0.70% on Friday for the first time since March.
Governor Ueda's comments at the G20 summit in India have played a role in the recent rebound of USD/JPY and the decline in longer-term yields. His statement emphasized that achieving the 2% inflation goal is still a distant prospect, reaffirming the unchanged assumption reiterated in the overall narrative.
The market's response to Governor Ueda's comments has tempered speculation about an immediate yield curve control (YCC) change in the upcoming week. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might still make adjustments to YCC during the July meeting based on updated forecasts. Although yields currently show no upward pressure and are within the 0.50% band limit, the upcoming CPI data on Friday will be pivotal and could reignite speculation depending on the results.
On Thursday, the Australian dollar saw a substantial surge after the release of better-than-expected employment data in the country. Australia's net employment rose by 32,600 in June, exceeding market expectations for the second consecutive month of a 15,000 increase. As a result of this positive economic news, the Australian dollar surged more than 0.9% to reach an intraday high of $0.6834.
On the other hand, the British pound suffered notable losses due to disappointing inflation data that fell short of market expectations. As a result, the market's anticipation of further aggressive interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) diminished. However, the pound managed to stage a slight recovery, gaining 0.15% to trade at $1.2958, after experiencing a decline of over 0.7% on the previous day.
The euro, on the other hand, strengthened by 0.24% against the US dollar, reaching $1.1227. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting for additional insights into the rate outlook. Recently, ECB policymakers have adopted a more dovish stance, with some indicating uncertainty about future rate increases beyond the likely 25 basis points increase expected in July.
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