EURUSD Weekly forecast, technical and fundamental may 14 -may 18
At the Chart we see a intermediate waves on the Weekly chart, where the price clearly have a bullish uptrend, after a range from 2015 to 2017. the price had strong momentum from wave (0) to (3) where wave (5) have had a decrease in the momentum and ending it with a symmetric triangle, that is followed by a strong break and down movement. the price have produced a morning star candle and could be indicating a u turn of the price. Fibonacci is also matching with the price action and the wave analysis where a bullish hidden divergence have occurred in the price and the RSI. the intermediate waves with 5 swings have been completed and a correction is under construction, where wave (A) are completed and wave (B) and (C) is waiting. wave (C) is also a primary wave ((2)) where wave (5) is primary wave ((1)).
Fundamental:
In the coming week we have 5 FOMC members speaking, with Draghi speaking on wednesday.
Tuesday 15 may: German prelim GDP q/q is released, the numbers are expected to go down with 0,2% from last time at 0,6% where consensus is 0,4%. Last year the numbers where at 0,6% with the same consensus, where 2016 numbers were slightly lower from consensus that was on 0,5% where the actual numbers released was at 0,3%. therefor Y/Y is definitely lower than last years numbers same month.
Flash GDP q/q for the Euro-zone is expected to hold a steady level on 0,4%, with a change from last year from 0,5% in may. and a change of -0,2% from last quarter.
German ZEW Economic sentiment, is expected to rise from -8,2 to -8,0. The sentiment is still in minus, and therefore there is a continuing pessimism in the economy.
For the USD numbers for Core retails sales m/m is released, where the numbers are expected to be higher from last month. the consensus is 0,5% up with 0,3% from last month 0,2%. where the total sales in retail including automobiles is expected to fall from 0,6% to 0,4% m/m
The empire state manufacturing index is also expected to fall from 15,8 to 15,1 and is a sign of less spending, hiring and investments.
Wednesday 16 May: Final CPI y/y for Euro is released, the consensus is at the same level as last times actual, at 1,2% where last year's numbers for the same month where at 1.9% therefore a weakness in the inflation numbers. ECB President Draghi speaks the same day.
Building permits for USD is also due the day, the numbers have a consensus of 1,35m, the numbers are expected as last release. Last years numbers from May show 1,23m. Crude oil inventories will also affect the currency pair where the pull out of the iran nuclear deal could make the countries buying iranian oil seek other importers. i therefore expect a shortage in the inventory
Thursday 17 May: Philly fed manufacturing index have a consensus of 21,1 from last month where the numbers where 23,2. unemployment claims is also expected to rise from 211k to 219k.
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Fundamental:
In the coming week we have 5 FOMC members speaking, with Draghi speaking on wednesday.
Tuesday 15 may: German prelim GDP q/q is released, the numbers are expected to go down with 0,2% from last time at 0,6% where consensus is 0,4%. Last year the numbers where at 0,6% with the same consensus, where 2016 numbers were slightly lower from consensus that was on 0,5% where the actual numbers released was at 0,3%. therefor Y/Y is definitely lower than last years numbers same month.
Flash GDP q/q for the Euro-zone is expected to hold a steady level on 0,4%, with a change from last year from 0,5% in may. and a change of -0,2% from last quarter.
German ZEW Economic sentiment, is expected to rise from -8,2 to -8,0. The sentiment is still in minus, and therefore there is a continuing pessimism in the economy.
For the USD numbers for Core retails sales m/m is released, where the numbers are expected to be higher from last month. the consensus is 0,5% up with 0,3% from last month 0,2%. where the total sales in retail including automobiles is expected to fall from 0,6% to 0,4% m/m
The empire state manufacturing index is also expected to fall from 15,8 to 15,1 and is a sign of less spending, hiring and investments.
Wednesday 16 May: Final CPI y/y for Euro is released, the consensus is at the same level as last times actual, at 1,2% where last year's numbers for the same month where at 1.9% therefore a weakness in the inflation numbers. ECB President Draghi speaks the same day.
Building permits for USD is also due the day, the numbers have a consensus of 1,35m, the numbers are expected as last release. Last years numbers from May show 1,23m. Crude oil inventories will also affect the currency pair where the pull out of the iran nuclear deal could make the countries buying iranian oil seek other importers. i therefore expect a shortage in the inventory
Thursday 17 May: Philly fed manufacturing index have a consensus of 21,1 from last month where the numbers where 23,2. unemployment claims is also expected to rise from 211k to 219k.
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Comment:
See chart from May 5