For the ones who took on that amazing long term hedge (short on USD) 2 months ago, i am changed my mind on it. Hope some at least took a bit of profit after the 600 pip pump, if not, no loss and still a tiny profit :).
Reason why i have changed my mind, currencies are going all over the place, TA will work if your lucky, but fundamentals are ruling now. There are just some extreme things going on in this market, the reasons i had to take on the short on the Dollar, i just have too many doubts about them lately. The global financial system has no real logic anymore, instead it has become so complicated that i don't really believe my arguments have real value. Now this doesn't mean that EURUSD can't rally anymore long term, just had my reasons for it then, which i don't know at this moment if they have any value in this market anymore.
Anyway, at the moment, today we saw a break up which failed and it dropped a bit. On the left we can see the shape of a bearish wedge and it looks like it already broke. So now we would have to see a small retest and then dump again if the wedge is real. On the right you can, that price should not get above the orange zone. If so, it should be a basic retest and price should drop and accelerate down.
If we get above it, in theory there is room up until the red zone, but to me that's a 50/50 area. A strong move above the red, prob means something else is going on and the move up could continue bit more.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Reason why i have changed my mind, currencies are going all over the place, TA will work if your lucky, but fundamentals are ruling now. There are just some extreme things going on in this market, the reasons i had to take on the short on the Dollar, i just have too many doubts about them lately. The global financial system has no real logic anymore, instead it has become so complicated that i don't really believe my arguments have real value. Now this doesn't mean that EURUSD can't rally anymore long term, just had my reasons for it then, which i don't know at this moment if they have any value in this market anymore.
Anyway, at the moment, today we saw a break up which failed and it dropped a bit. On the left we can see the shape of a bearish wedge and it looks like it already broke. So now we would have to see a small retest and then dump again if the wedge is real. On the right you can, that price should not get above the orange zone. If so, it should be a basic retest and price should drop and accelerate down.
If we get above it, in theory there is room up until the red zone, but to me that's a 50/50 area. A strong move above the red, prob means something else is going on and the move up could continue bit more.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Comment:
New EURUSD analysis:
