IDEA 12: Short EUR/USD at 1.0867 for return to 1.0792
The market once again got ahead of itself, in my opinion, during Powell's press conference. He denied that any rate cuts were on the table and I am really puzzled by journalists who detected that he "hinted " at a pause. Maybe I am nuanced enough to hear that... I think it goes without saying that there will be a pause in the rate hikes but in his own words, it will be contingent on reaching the 2% inflation level which is quite a distance away.
The Fed rate is still 150 basis points ahead of the ECB and 75 ahead of BOE. Inflation remains the key to further rate hikes and in my opinion there is not much point in attaching too much value on economic indicators since 2 of the 3 Central Banks have reiterated their commitment to getting inflation under control. Even the BOE had only 2 dissenting members last night.
Be it as it may, it appears that some buyer remorse has kicked in already and the charts point to the possibility of a retest of the breakout zone between 1.0792 and 1.0804.
If the market reaches 1.0867 tonight, it may be an attractive entry point to short EUR/USD down to the support zone towards 1.0792.
The Fed rate is still 150 basis points ahead of the ECB and 75 ahead of BOE. Inflation remains the key to further rate hikes and in my opinion there is not much point in attaching too much value on economic indicators since 2 of the 3 Central Banks have reiterated their commitment to getting inflation under control. Even the BOE had only 2 dissenting members last night.
Be it as it may, it appears that some buyer remorse has kicked in already and the charts point to the possibility of a retest of the breakout zone between 1.0792 and 1.0804.
If the market reaches 1.0867 tonight, it may be an attractive entry point to short EUR/USD down to the support zone towards 1.0792.
Comment:
Well,that did not take long to play out. The low corresponds with the daily close on 3/21/23. Next supports will be around 1.0734, the 10 day MA and after that 1.7000 which is very strong support.
