DanV
Long

EURUSD - COULD RESUME IT'S BULLISH CYCLE

FX_IDC:EURUSD   EURO / US DOLLAR
My last EURUSD             chart suggesting long entry was about 4 months ago, which took longer and retraced more than originally anticipated. Whilst we were waiting for longer term bullish move, we took 2 short trades which were also published subsequently, see chart links below.

Now we have long awaited low formed in December 2015 just above March 2015 low, which could prove to be higher low of the bullish cycle

Looking at the price actions since March low to recent December 2015 low it appears very interesting as follow:

1. From March Low to August high we note a clear 3 swings zigzag move shown in GREEN.
2. Similarly, from August high to December low also appear to have a 3 swings to the downside show in GREEN.
4. The final part of the swing down to Dec             low was clear falling wedge with accompanied momentum divergence on H4.
3. The December low formed at just below 88.6% retracement of the move up from March to August.

The above observations, if correct, suggests that we have a potential Flat correction which according to Elliott Wave principle is formed by 3-3-5 (a-b-c) formation where wave B needs to retrace around 90% of prior wave A and both waves A & B should have 3 swings each, hence meeting the criteria.

If the interpretation is correct, then what should develop now is a 5 wave impulsive move to the upside, which could at least retest August high or even make new higher high.

Of the 5 wave it appears we have already completed leading diagonal wave 1 and retracement zigzag wave 2, and could be in very early stage of wave 3 in progress which should be quite strong.

Summary: Therefore, we could consider 2 possible entries
1. The ideal one is that we can get pullback to enter around 1.08 or better and is a preferred entry.
2. If it don't get a pull back to 1.08 level then use a smaller time frame to confirm entry or wait till we have a breakout above 1.1.

In both cases the initial stops could be just below 1.07 which is invalidation level, however, it might need to be reviewed as bullish trade could still materialise provided we hold above December low.

We might stay in this range for few days but seasonality also supports EURUSD             gaining noticeably commencing from late Jan to early Feb

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
http://www.danv-charting.com
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trader515
a year ago
euro repeatedly cant even touch 1.10
and to demand to take 1.17 before 1.06 is same as me winning lottery
Reply
DanV MOD trader515
a year ago
Thanks for your view.

I understand what you are saying and you could well be right. However, when market is in tight range bound that is the case, it can't clearly break up or downside. So it is hard to anticipate which way it will go. For now no trade just monitor and only engage when the direction looks clear with usual stop for protecting the capital
Reply
jhakas
a year ago
Euro if holds 1.08 then upside above 1.10 will remain alive.. and if takes out 1.08 then below 1.07 again..
Key area 1.08 and for usdchf 1.00515
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DanV MOD jhakas
a year ago
Thanks.
Reply
KayJay
a year ago
good analysis :)
Reply
DanV MOD KayJay
a year ago
Thankyou
Reply
Csys
a year ago
Nice pitchforks. Here's what I got:
EURUSD weekly TA
Reply
DanV MOD Csys
a year ago
Thank you for sharing your chart. I did check that some while back but feel it is not reacting well with the price action. So I took it off. Also tries various other pivots but did not get good results. That is not to say it is not relevant. Remains to be seen how it plays out. Thanks once again.
+1 Reply
Csys DanV
a year ago
Yes, it's hard to find the one in the weekly Fiber because the price action is fuzzy and rebel. The reason I picked up this one as my primary choice is that although the parallels don't really describe the market, the ML stands powerful.
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DanV MOD Csys
a year ago
Yes I agree.
Reply
KayJay DanV
a year ago
I guess it can go lower to 1.080 or 1.077 level before resuming uptrend... as if you can see day before yesterday candle or bar it shows how quickly it bounced of that level :)
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KayJay KayJay
a year ago
I think we are in a 2 wave of a higher 3 wave impulse
Reply
DanV MOD KayJay
a year ago
At present that is what have, a wave ii of 3, that is why if this is correct on completion we could see very strong move being wave iii of 3. We have some big events later this week which might throw all of this in to melting pot, but overall I think it is likely it will resolve to the upside.
Reply
KayJay DanV
a year ago
yes once the correction is completed a very strong wave up is expected as it will be a wave iii of 3 but incase if it moves up on a very low volume or acceleration them we might have to re-consider the alternate count.... which I believe you also have :)
Reply
DanV MOD Csys
a year ago
This is the best Pitchfork I can place on the weekly charts, with bullish parallel trend channel. It does not add much more than to highlight that is is in a critical zone longer term. That said a bounce from here would still be possible without altering anything.
snapshot
+1 Reply
KayJay DanV
a year ago
nice
Reply
Csys DanV
a year ago
Noooooooo! No arithmetic scale : )

(that's a very nice pitchfork btw. but really don't use the arithmetic scale at all)
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Csys Csys
a year ago
* i really don't use
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DanV MOD Csys
a year ago
Arithmetic scale fine in most charts where the change in price over the time under analysis do not change that much, but where it does then Semi-log is better from my experience. So in this case arithmetic scale is good.
+1 Reply
KayJay DanV
a year ago
Arithmetic scale is only good if your trading 5 min or 15 min chart :)
Reply
DanV MOD KayJay
a year ago
You could be right. I use arithmetic for most FX charts even on longer time frame like weekly and monthly. Only occasionally log chart. But on Stocks and other instruments often use log charts as price change is over several multiple of 100% over several years and even sometime in under 5 years.
Reply
jhakas
a year ago
1.08 remains... euro target is 1.102/4...
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trader515 jhakas
a year ago
any reason why euro would lift up(beside "magical" 1.08)?
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jhakas trader515
a year ago
Pin Bar Bullish Candle of friday... as you can see eu still jumping... it is because of that candle..
Reply
jhakas trader515
a year ago
low of that daily candle remains which is 1.08... bulls will remain hopeful for another jump for 1.10 and any break of 1.08 will drag euro towards 1.055
Reply
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