EUR is extending price after comments from ECB's Knot over the weekend. The price is starting to run into significant resistance and only a daily close above the 50% retracement from 1.2349 to the low of 0.9536 will invalidate the short.
Knot is a known hawk but conversely, Brainard from the Federal Reserve who is considered to be more of a dove was not quite so dovish in her speech this past Thursday. The European CPI remains quite elevated if not stagnant
Friday, January 6, 2023
02:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) 5.2% 5.0% 5.0%
02:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Dec) 9.2% 9.7% 10.1%
02:00 EUR CPI (MoM) -0.3% 0.8% -0.1%
Aussie is currently revisiting the high of 0.6994 before the labor stats breakdown on 1/18/23
16:30 AUD Employment Change (Dec) -14.6K 22.5K 58.2K
16:30 AUD Full Employment Change (Dec) 17.6K 33.2K
16:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Dec) 3.5% 3.4% 3.5%
The Chinese economy has been slowing down during the prolonged COVID lockdown and the sudden policy reversal on lockdowns combined with tens of millions of Chinese citizens travelling to celebrate the Lunar New Year does not bode well for the COVID infection rates. The reported infection level is already skyrocketing. The cessation of most economic activity in Asia this week and the massive super spreader COVID event of LNY, gives pause to what the Chinese and other Asian economies will look like in 10 days time. Whatever the outcome, it will affect the Australian and New Zealand economies.
The Federal Reserve's next meeting on 2/1/23 will be preceded by the publication of their preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE index which is projected to increase to 0.3% from 0.2% the month before.
The continuous tug of war in the USA of inflation, recessionary fears and the upcoming earnings season will keep investors on edge for some time to come.
No one, least of all yours truly, has a crystal ball but since this is my first published idea, I will say this: I have a little more clarity in my own mind about probable currency movements by taking the time to write this and taking a good hard look at the charts. Right or wrong does not matter. We are all in it to make money, not to be crowned the all knowing genius of Forex. Therefore, keep a level head, keep your trade size realistic to the ratio of your available funds and for goodness sake, uses stops. (This last sentence was more for my own benefit than any one else's)
And have fun.
Good luck everone.
Knot is a known hawk but conversely, Brainard from the Federal Reserve who is considered to be more of a dove was not quite so dovish in her speech this past Thursday. The European CPI remains quite elevated if not stagnant
Friday, January 6, 2023
02:00 EUR Core CPI (YoY) 5.2% 5.0% 5.0%
02:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Dec) 9.2% 9.7% 10.1%
02:00 EUR CPI (MoM) -0.3% 0.8% -0.1%
Aussie is currently revisiting the high of 0.6994 before the labor stats breakdown on 1/18/23
16:30 AUD Employment Change (Dec) -14.6K 22.5K 58.2K
16:30 AUD Full Employment Change (Dec) 17.6K 33.2K
16:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Dec) 3.5% 3.4% 3.5%
The Chinese economy has been slowing down during the prolonged COVID lockdown and the sudden policy reversal on lockdowns combined with tens of millions of Chinese citizens travelling to celebrate the Lunar New Year does not bode well for the COVID infection rates. The reported infection level is already skyrocketing. The cessation of most economic activity in Asia this week and the massive super spreader COVID event of LNY, gives pause to what the Chinese and other Asian economies will look like in 10 days time. Whatever the outcome, it will affect the Australian and New Zealand economies.
The Federal Reserve's next meeting on 2/1/23 will be preceded by the publication of their preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE index which is projected to increase to 0.3% from 0.2% the month before.
The continuous tug of war in the USA of inflation, recessionary fears and the upcoming earnings season will keep investors on edge for some time to come.
No one, least of all yours truly, has a crystal ball but since this is my first published idea, I will say this: I have a little more clarity in my own mind about probable currency movements by taking the time to write this and taking a good hard look at the charts. Right or wrong does not matter. We are all in it to make money, not to be crowned the all knowing genius of Forex. Therefore, keep a level head, keep your trade size realistic to the ratio of your available funds and for goodness sake, uses stops. (This last sentence was more for my own benefit than any one else's)
And have fun.
Good luck everone.
Trade closed manually:
Exited AUD/USD short for a 6 pips profit before CPI print.
Original long EUR/USD at 1.0770 was exited when I went short at 1.0868 for +98 pips.
This 1.0868 short was exited at 1.0840 this morning for +28 pips after the slightly better but not great USD PMI print. Survived the spike to 1.0926.
Original long EUR/USD at 1.0770 was exited when I went short at 1.0868 for +98 pips.
This 1.0868 short was exited at 1.0840 this morning for +28 pips after the slightly better but not great USD PMI print. Survived the spike to 1.0926.