tomasz.goljan

EUR/USD with 2 scenarios for the next weeks.

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
As in the title there are 2 base scenarios for EUR/USD             for few next weeks (Yeah I'm a wizard and I know it can go up or down :P )

Let's start with the short scenario

Techs :

Just simple plain Price Action.. new lows after new lows and then another new lows for 3 months ? Why would we try to catch falling knife..

Every support present on daily chart was broken in past weeks without any decent retrace and round level 1.30 which is also 50% Fibo retracement of ~1.20 move to 1.40 might work as an magnet. Same as 1.40 level worked few months ago.

Fundamentals :

That's what makes most of us belive that EUR/USD             will continue droping... maybe not in a straight line but it should drop further.

Rates... FED starts to talk about rate hikes while ECB might dump rates even lower at one of its next meetings.

Every single economic data... Unemployement ? Euro             Zones has almost twice as much as USA ( 11,5% vs 6,2%)
Inflation ? That's the biggest issue in Euro             Zone, Firdays data should point down to 0,3% YoY vs around 2% in USA.
GDP which was the big issue in USA at Q1 of 2014 ? That's still around 2,5% YoY vs 0,5% in Euro             Zone.

Then we should remember about Mario Draghi and what he said about ECB doing whatever it takes to fight deflation threats.. there are talks about anothe rate cuts or ABS easing program to be anounced soon by ECB.

Then comes the Long Scenario.

Techs:

We can mark an ABC correction after 5 wave upmove from 1,275 to almost 1,40 which is about to end at current levels. There's also an demand zone present around 1,312-3 level which should provide some support for any long scenarios.

There "should" be an correction after droping 8 figures from last top and when should it start ? Exactly now when everyons is shorting and that pair is oversold

Fundamentals :

I can't find any reasonable fundies supporting EUR/USD             upmove to be honest.. end month flows and position closing might give it some love in next 2-3 days but that's not something to look forward in next days or weeks.
Venky50Arun2003
2 years ago
Most sensible reading and frank recommendation. i liked very much. My gut feeling that it go down than up unlike US numbers surprises us
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tomasz.goljan Venky50Arun2003
2 years ago
That's the problem that I'd like to see it go up first after that 8 figures down move... but there's not much to support such scenario.
Thanks for Your comment mate.
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