Akil_Stokes
Short

EURUSD 4 Hour: Bearish Bat Pattern Completion

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Finally filled short on the bearish bat pattern that we’ve been waiting for on the EURUSD             . We’ve got a small rising wedge with bearish divergence on the RSI heading into that level which is a plus, but at the end of the day the pattern is the pattern is the pattern.

We’ve been on a heater as of late, hopefully we can keep things rolling with the Euro             .

Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
Click here for 20+ hours of FREE Training
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Comment: With the pattern being technically invalid, now is the perfect time to use the "graceful exit" strategy that we talked about it last nights evening video. If you're allowed to ofcourse
Comment: We came 10 pips away from hitting our initial target stops are now rolled to breakeven to eliminate all risk. Also here's a video talking about the "Graceful Exit" strategy that i talked about earlier

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3S1wenENILI
Trade closed: target reached: CHA-CHING!!!! Very good discipline on this one traders. To come that close to getting stopped out, followed by coming that close to targets before bouncing up again. Way to wait it through. Truly a GOOD trade.
Trade closed: target reached: TGT 2's hit
Very nice Akil!
+2 Reply
thanks
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Ttsounis Akil_Stokes
Hi Akil,

Question about stop loss in this circumstance, if the sl is at the even handle yet we exceed the 1.1458 x mark this means the pattern is no longer valid. If so do you close the trade even though the stop has not been hit?

Thank in advance
Troy
+1 Reply
I personally don't but that's certainly an option. Another option is saying that "IF X is penetrated THEN I use a graceful exit technique" which essentially means try and cut my losses as much as possible.
+1 Reply
Picked that one up as well, with my target at the 1.1310 area
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Andy_Parrish
Nice, bets of luck with this one Chiefdm
+1 Reply
Andy_Parrish Akil_Stokes
Hey Akil, I may be a bit late to the party with this question but it's been intriguing me. I noticed that you took profits at T1 and T2 on this trade (nice work by the way), but I was curious to find out what made you stay in this particular trade even after the pattern was technically invalidated. I know that you've used the graceful exit on previous trades where patterns have become invalidated but just wondered what made this one different? I understand that the answer might not be that black and white and also that you may not want to go into too much detail with the rules that may or may not have allowed this in your trade plan so no worries if you don't can't go into too much detail about when you do and don't use the graceful exit :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Andy_Parrish
Thanks for the question. I don't use the graceful exit with advanced patterns.
+1 Reply
Andy_Parrish Akil_Stokes
Short and sweet, thanks! :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Andy_Parrish
No problem
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In this one as well.GL!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Don_Corleone
Thanks, let the market gods be on our side
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wher is you sl
+1 Reply
I think having it above the 1.15 even handle is the best place to be. (of course that's not advice though) ;-)
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Trading_Jazz PRO Akil_Stokes
A friendly psicological price level, above X, previous structure high, im learning a few things your free videos ;)
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Finally!!
Those 20h free trading are awesome!!!!! :-)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Trading_Jazz
Thanks, I wish more people knew about them. Turning point was amazing in my opinion
+1 Reply
Fieldgate Akil_Stokes
They are all fantastic Akil.
Chapeau to both Jason and yourself
+1 Reply
Thanks!
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Hey Akil i have been looking at eurusd since yestarday and just you have applied bat pattern ,, the confisuan is that i have placed the D leg on 78.6 Feb would that be correct
+1 Reply
BLUE43 TOP Adil-khan
price is at .14064 when that has been posted where is your sl ?
+1 Reply
above the 1.15000 even handle as mentioned above
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The level on the chart that says "Stops Beyond the Even Handle"
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That would be incorrect, for bat patterns the completion is always at the 88.6 Fibonacci retracement. The 78.6 is a ratio commonly used with the gartley pattern
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We could get better entry if missed the original. Bat pattern forming:
snapshot
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looks great i'm short too
14.10.2015 - EURUSD
+1 Reply
Lovely chart!
+1 Reply
noels Axel
Bearish Gartley on the way....
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I'm always follow your work Akil, thank you sir.

kind regards
+1 Reply
Thanks for the continued support Kadhijah
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If there is no selloff today, then pair should get to 1.50 in no time.
+3 Reply
how long would you say "no time is?"
+1 Reply
berkek PRO Akil_Stokes
Maybe tomorrow.
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1.50 is that a joke?
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berkek PRO ernestohands
Oh sorry about that. I meant 1.15...
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Akil, the news event has made this pair and Bat Pattern an emotional roller coaster :)
+2 Reply
What are emotions??? lol
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TradeYodha PRO Akil_Stokes
:) LOL
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Now it has become to buy !!!!!
+1 Reply
Axel mihyar
no my phone is not ringing yet still ok i got a sms wehen i stoped out or take profit :D
+1 Reply
We have plenty of space on this trade for both stops and targets. It's amazing how emotional traders get over these small moves in relation to the trade as a whole
+1 Reply
Fieldgate Akil_Stokes
Akil - quick question - do you trade the C -> D legs on the harmonic structures too, or wait solely for the end-D ?
+1 Reply
I wait until the D completion, i think trading the C-D leg simply due to it being a "potential pattern" is one of the fastest ways to go broke.
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Fieldgate Akil_Stokes
Thank you. Appreciate the candid answer.
+1 Reply
No problem, I've just seen too many traders get harmed trying to do it because of those reasons
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Axel Akil_Stokes
yes i think i loose my hairs too :D lol
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Are you changing your opinion from a sell to a buy or was it always a buy for you?
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What is the price stop lose !!!!!!!!!!
+1 Reply
What is wrong with you dude?)Seems like you copied this trade without any idea about what is going on and on top of that put all your money in it=)Stops are at around 1.14600 level if you are short.
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If you're trading this as a bat I'd have stops above the 1.15 even handle
+1 Reply
How Much More Up Now?
when Eur Going Down?
+1 Reply
If I could answer that question for you, I'd be managing money for the riches people in the world. The reality is that the market does what it wants whenever it wants to do it. So we never no until it happens
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XA is nice. The kind I like))
+1 Reply
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/qQ5nMnlg/

snapshot


Akil, can i take it a little deep? What to say ?
+1 Reply
Trading_Jazz PRO Trading_Jazz
and the first target as "take profit" also with a weekly pattern i suppose
...
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Trading_Jazz
Oh your asking about taking profits deep? If so, sure as long as you think that's the most profitable way to trade it. Sorry, if i misunderstood the initial question
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Akil_Stokes PRO Trading_Jazz
I'm sorry but I'm not sure what your question means?
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Trading_Jazz PRO Akil_Stokes
sorry my english, missing some expressions ;) the "deep" as "bigger picture" ;) sorry
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Trading_Jazz
I got you. yes that's certainly a possibility. Very far away but a possibility yes
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same view akil, been waiting for the completion point.. the news delayed us in booking our profits, hopefully this materialize, still holding for my stops is still way up at 1.13XA extension .. XD
keep it up!
+1 Reply
Nice, but remember profits are never a given. We have just as good of a chance of getting stopped out of this particular trade as we do of it hitting targets.
+1 Reply
I like thinking about having 50/50 probability on every trade no matter how good my edge presented itself in the past. I am with you when you say that market does whatever it want.
+2 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Alexander_Nikitin
I just try not to get to high or to low on any given trade. It's all about the process not the outcome
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Bearish Bat
+1 Reply
Nice!
+1 Reply
This trade is certainly bringing some pain, but that's trading.
+1 Reply
Yeah I've got a lot of exposure in the markets tonight including this $usdcad $usdjpy & $eurjpy It may be one of those nights where I'm tossing and turning thinking about what the London chaps are up too
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dangap Akil_Stokes
Same here, watching the same pairs.
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missing eurjpy... but same exposure, funny cause those are the first trades since end of Sep...
+1 Reply
coffeezoo Akil_Stokes
Akil? Is it still a bat now?
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Do you agree that when EUR/USD goes up, it must come down eventually....I am shorting EUR/USD standard contract and lost more than 1k USD already...
i plan to adjust my SL to much higher (e.g. 1.71) and wait for it to come down...In the meantime, i am earning interest for shorting this pair...

Again, my belief is that:- Whatever goes up, IT MUST COME DOWN eventually".
+1 Reply
Axel yeehuei
no man you cant do that ... here is no hope
and i think you are risking too mutch i think you have to find your uncle point (like a mappy meal or so 5$)
when you'r trading live (i cant trade demo becouse i always wait untill the market reverse and take my profits off by 1 pip..)
+1 Reply
dangap yeehuei
Yeehuei, Sounds like you need to head over to Trade Empowered and take advantage of there free training on structure. Losses are going to come whether you like it or not, no need to take such large risk.
In the case of the above pattern, the trade is invalid once price breaks above closes above X.
Happy trading.
+1 Reply
Look like EURUSD is moving in our favor....
+1 Reply
Do you often get really emotional during your trades, whether winning or losing Yeehuei?
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yeehuei PRO Akil_Stokes
Hi Akil, I get emotional at times when i did not do enough analysis. In fact, I have never backtested advanced pattern on 4hr timeframe. This leads me to ask you another question..are you only trading the currency pairs and the time frame that you have backtested thoroughly?
+1 Reply
If you've never backtested and feel like you haven't done enough analysis why are you in the trade?
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yeehuei PRO Akil_Stokes
Akil,... I become famous now after you shared my story on your weekly forex review video... it's my pleasure if i can be a subject of leason learnt for other traders.
Back to your question... I am still a newbie in forex trading and would inevitably go through the emotional swings like most new traders do...
In fact, I did my analysis on this currency pair and just happened that you posted this idea here and that reinforce my belief that i am mostly right on this trade.
At the end, I was lured to a quick profit and hoping that I can make some quick money out of it.. Manual backtesting is too painful and time consuming.
When your ideas and mine are aligned, i simply HIT the SELL button because i know you have done enough backtesting on this currency pair...
+1 Reply
rozela99 yeehuei
Yeehuei, Backtesting your own strategy/plan is the best thing you can do as a trader. Not only will it give you the confidence you need for your trades but, will also help remove the emotions from your trading. The next best thing that I have done recently was I removed my P&L info from my trading platform. I now place the trades set my targets and let them ride win ot lose. I log every trade into a spiral notebook (my journal). This way I can review my trades daily. I then review the P&L's once a week. Don't think about the money think about your plan and the process. Akil, has said it a million times "process over outcome". Hope this helps It sure helped me. Never give up and Good luck with your trading.
+2 Reply
Well said
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Following another trader blindly is a very easy way to go broke, especially if don't know exactly how the traders rules for entries, targets, trade management, etc. It's very important that you trust yourself over anybody else because at the end of the day you're the one that must make the decisions of how your money will be used. My advice is you take some time to learn, test and continue to grow as a trader before looking to make "some quick money" because typically the result is that you will go broke quick. Did you take my advice and fill out the trader assessment? http://tradeempowered.com/trader-assessment/
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And yes to your second question. if you haven't backtested something how else do you know that what you're doing actually has a positive expectancy?
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I think adjusting your stop loss is a horrible idea. Sure "it must come down eventually" but you can also lose everything before it does. Don't chase the trade, if you're wrong, your wrong, then you move on to the next opportunity. If you continue to adjust and mess with your stops or targets you take away from the expectancy of your strategy which made all of the backtesting you (hopefully) did worthless.
+3 Reply
Don_Corleone PRO Akil_Stokes
So true
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Also you know exactly how much you're risking before you ever take the trade, so you should be prepared to take a loss of "x" amount without it bothering you
+2 Reply
Robson_Hayashida Akil_Stokes
Yes, completely agree.
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very nice
EueUSD going down now to 1.1400 >> 1.1280
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possible 2618 play at hourly chart, double top..
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Hi Akil.. I like your honesty and ability to recognise that the pattern became invalid.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO AndrewFx2020
Thanks, i think it's important that we mentally prepare for that type stuff. If we can accept it early it stops us from doing stuff like moving stops and chasing it. At least it works for me like that
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I exited right on time, thought it was a good idea for a graceful exit also!
+1 Reply
TamaYU RobinOphion
how to do the graceful exit?
+1 Reply
I'll go over it in my Weekend Review video today. I've been getting that question a lot so it'll be easier to show it that way rather than write it out here. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVveEks3MWZqOsvzTF_LGQg
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TamaYU Akil_Stokes
Thanks akil, though we are back in the green side, going to lighten up in my position
+1 Reply
Just make sure it's part of your plan and not an emotional decision
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Fieldgate Akil_Stokes
Akil - just putting it out there....
Assuming my plan was to buy back half my short at 38.2 retrace, stop to breakeven and run the second half to 61.8...
Should those levels be re-based now that the "high" for the fib trace has increased from my entry price OR left as was (original bat 886 level) ?
(my inclination is to re-base for the high from last night)
+1 Reply
Fieldgate Fieldgate
and further to that / answering myself......
Fibs retrace vs "Look left market gives structure"
+1 Reply
Nothing wrong with being structure based as well as long as you know what you're doing
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Correct adjust your fibs with the current price action
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thanks >>
the way to 1.1100
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@Akil - Excellent setup!! I learned much from you on setting stops and assessing the PRZ. Thanks. :)
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Akil_Stokes PRO Captain_Walker
You're welcome
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It is in my plan that once I am entered into an advance pattern trade. It does not become invalid until either my stop loss or my targets are hit. I sure miss the live room. I will return soon. Thanks Akil!
+2 Reply
TamaYU rozela99
i have the same strategy.. @Akil, i know that a pattern is invalidated once the D leg closes above the X (for a bat gartley and cypher), but what if it never touch your stops yet, would you still hold, or sell on a break even point? TIA
+1 Reply
I still hold until I'm either stopped out, or like in this case targets are achieved
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Can't wait to see you back in there.
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Hi Akil. As per the Book - Harmonic Trader by Scott Carney, doesn't this Bat Pattern become invalid if the prices go right through the PRZ as it did in this case. Also at that point of time when the prices were going all the way upto 1.15, there was also no bearish PA to validate the reversal of BAT PATTERN. i guess the trade worked because the SL was even beyond the point X .
Hope to hear your point of view and analysis on this trade
+1 Reply
Correct, I mentioned this in the description box about, but once the "X" leg was broken the bat pattern was technically invalidated
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*above not about sorry
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TradebyRik Akil_Stokes
Thks for the reply Akil. I believe that usual strategy of placing SL for a BAT PATTERN is just slightly above X point, But in this case you put the SL all the way up and beyond 1.15. Was it for a specific reason as that doesn't fit your trading rules otherwise( i guess)
+1 Reply
Yes, for advanced patterns my stops must be above X, but instead of using say a 10 or 20 pip stop I prefer to use the atr and/or 1.13 fibonacci that way the stop is more dynamic to the individual pair and situation since all pairs have different personalities and all patterns are different sizes. For example 10pips on the GBPAUD is a lot different than 10 pips on the EURGBP if that makes sense.
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Yes I'm sure the 1.15 played a role which is why it was important to get about that even handled number but in all honesty this trade probably should have been a loser based off of the technicals. I know I had already accepted the loss in my head
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Kadhijah Akil_Stokes
you are very popular Akil, thank for to be here.
God bless
+1 Reply
You're welcome
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Amazing setup! I´m still testing strategies, already done my backtesting and now i´m demo account! Already hit my first target at 38.2 and now looking for extended target at 61.8 @ 1.1263!
+1 Reply
Well done, let's see if we can continue downwards
+1 Reply
Learning throughout the process ofcourse
+1 Reply
HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Learning and disciplining myself to when i feel ready to enter the market! Until now i´ve .back tested EURUSD 15 and 60 min, and GBPUSD 15 and 60 min. Both pairs and strategies tested proved to be profitable in almost 76%!
What other pair would you consider in this early process of mine to back test?!
Thank you for all your support and teaching! You´re our Structure!
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yossi.ramot Akil_Stokes
Hi Akil, I have been following your lessons and trading ideas for quite a while and wanted to say thank you for it, they are really helpful!

One thing that is still not fully clear to me is how do you exactly backtest a strategy.
Does it mean for example that you go 5 years back on a daily chart of a certain pair and search manually for all trade opportunities and then check if they have a positive success rate?
This sounds like something that would take A LOT of time.
Could you please comment on that or maybe even talk about it in one of your next videos?

Thanks a lot!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO yossi.ramot
Yes backtesting is a long process where you want to test your system and any questions that you have about your system in terms of entries, targets and stops. I recommend 100 traders or at least 5 years per strategy per pair
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TradebyRik Akil_Stokes
Hi Akil. How do you backtest on this platform. Is it to be done manually? Maybe you could come out with ha short video on the back-testing process with some details/inputs. Would you recommend any other platform for backtesting?
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Hi Akil. I'm curious how this trade went for you then. I think someone else commented on there being no confirming PA for the anticipated short entry at pattern completion point. So, under your rules would you not have entered this trade, or did you enter it after the quick run up and drop? Or did this action violate the pattern making it not tradable? I'm also wondering if the concept of a "look above and fail" comes into play with these patterns (I haven't really checked to see if the pattern completion point coincided with any significant resistance line)? It's interesting that it seems to have failed at this very point, and in the course of doing that, also forming a potential head and shoulders pattern. Thanks in advance for your answers and thanks again for all that you do. I'll be catching up on your videos this weekend. Have a great weekend!
+1 Reply
Hi Caifu642, I indeed entered this trade and hit profit targets with it. A very painful trade, but one that many traders will learn a lot about themselves and their ability to follow rules from.
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I entered at the "D" completion and sat through a lot of pain. Price action did rally up technically making the bearish bat pattern invalid, but stops were never hit and price action was able to retrace to our profit level
+1 Reply
One of those which tests your faith in yourself... Had it few times... but it is still better than situations where you have strike of 4-5 great trades, you are full of convenience - earned some equity so you increase a lot size and then you hit a brick wall like a racing car with strikes of SL trigerred positions and you start from scratches... again :)

Wish you best, I really enjoy the work you guys do. (However I still believe that biggest enemy of every trader is this trader itself, no matter how much knowledge you may have it is still about the mindset)
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caifu642 Akil_Stokes
Thanks for the answers Akil. I really appreciate that you get back to everyone! And I did have a chance to look at some lower time frames and see some possible PA that would indicate entry points. That excursion higher was unfortunate, and no doubt painful while it's happening, but then again, you had your stop loss set based on your trading plan and at that point, you just had to ride out the trade. And it worked in this case - as planned! I hate those that will just take you out by a pip or two and then go your direction! Thanks again!
+1 Reply
No problem and yes, those types are the worst
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TamaYU Akil_Stokes
same scenario.. managed to take profit, though TP levels have changed due to changing fib retracements
+1 Reply
Awesome!!!
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EjaNeul Akil_Stokes
akil. this is my plan for eu.. what is your opinion? your comment is highly appreciated. thanks.
+1 Reply
EjaNeul EjaNeul
akil. this is my plan for eu.. what is your opinion? your comment is highly appreciated. thanks.
EU trading plan
+1 Reply
Does this type of trade meet everything outlined in your trading plan?
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EjaNeul Akil_Stokes
i am confident with supply at (1(tested supply) and 2(fresh supply)) and demand at (3). what do you think?
+1 Reply
I don't have any trades currently on my radar for the Euro but my advice to to follow your plan. A lot of work went into creating it so it's important that you trust your plan and yourself. It's certainly a possibility that your prediction will happen.
+1 Reply
EjaNeul Akil_Stokes
akil. thanks for your comment... :)
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Hey Akil! How do you manage the process of profit taking between different targets?
E.g. if you have 3 targets with 10 micro lots, hitting the first target do you close 3 lots, the 2nd another 3 and the 3rd the last 4?
I'm a bit confused about that.
Of course along with trailing stops on B/E or on any new structure confirmation.
It's not clear to me what's your strategy on that process.
Thank you
+1 Reply
I typically just split the position in half. If you're doing 3 as you mentioned, I'd take the majority of your position off at the most profitable target level.
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antonyde Akil_Stokes
Is this the way you trade every target 1 and 2?
+1 Reply
Yes, half and half
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antonyde Akil_Stokes
Thank you very much! You answered me a very crucial question!!
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Bugdung Akil_Stokes
Hi there im rahter new to this all but hammering the training! an i ask what makes you decide your take profit targets? if you used this particuar trade for example?
+1 Reply
Hi Bugdung, for this type of trade i use fibonacci levels
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Bugdung Akil_Stokes
My apologies i should have made my question a little more clear, i have watched many videos, especially from yourself andJason stapleton at tradeempowered as you seem very genuine and to have good intentions!

I understand how to draw the patterns i'm just still a little confused over the profit target in general, is it levels from the measurement of leg C-D or the entire pattern?

i still struggle sometimes
+1 Reply
The way we measure targets is from the A to D leg of the pattern. Nothing wrong with doing the C to D, I would just test them both to see which is more effective
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Before assuming that A-D is, I've never tested C-D so I can't tell if it is or isn't
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Brilliant..!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO Fxprotrader
thanks
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Akil! looks like the pattern got invalidated! but you still like to keep the same targets? Dont you want to move the Tp up? As the market goes beyond the 88.6 ?
+1 Reply
Mdumezulu morshedul.sazid
Power of patience...
+1 Reply
indeed, now if only audusd would do the same
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO morshedul.sazid
Yes, i adjust targets with the movement of the "D" leg
+1 Reply
morshedul.sazid Akil_Stokes
Thank you for letting me know :)
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target reached? no the target is blown away destroyed man
+1 Reply
Blown away, i like that. A little bitter sweet because of the smaller pattern loss. but if one trade is going to win and the other is going to lose I'd much rather have the bigger one be the winner
+1 Reply
very nice Akil_Stokes thank you hellos Turkeyyy
+1 Reply
Thanks
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Eurusd short?

i had pretty much the same setup. Harmonic traders all the way. Stops were at 1.1 of XA and right on the money. Loved it. hope you liked it too :) Did not u?
+1 Reply
morshedul.sazid morshedul.sazid
1.13 Fibb of XA
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Akil_Stokes PRO morshedul.sazid
Yes, the trade played out in our favor so I was a big fan of how everything turned out as well
+1 Reply
morshedul.sazid Akil_Stokes
Excellent :)
Would love to see more of the karma by harmonics :)
+1 Reply
I was able to get long on a bearish Bat X@1.1114,, D compleition @ 1.1157!
Bat to Bat!
To bad i´m still demo trading!
+1 Reply
HKM666 HKM666
snapshot
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Nice, I'm rooting for you!
+1 Reply
dark.hkm.wish666 Akil_Stokes
Thank you so much!
Did you enterded this one too?!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO dark.hkm.wish666
No, it's not a valid pattern for me
+1 Reply
dark.hkm.wish666 Akil_Stokes
Can you tel me why not?
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO dark.hkm.wish666
The B leg never hits the 50%
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HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Which rule of yours do you see violated Akil?
+1 Reply
The B leg never hits the 50%
+1 Reply
HKM666 Akil_Stokes
I should had been more careful! You´re absolutely right! It missed the 50% by 1 pip and 1 pip its all it takes
Shame on me!
+1 Reply
Yup, it either hit or it didn't hit. Unless you have rules that say otherwise
+1 Reply
HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Nope. B leg must hit 50% ,and not touch the 61.8%.
This one is consider a bad trade for me.
If it happened to you , would you close your positio imeddiately or let it play out?!
+1 Reply
I'd close right away
+1 Reply
HKM666 Akil_Stokes
Thank you! Something to put on my trading plan! Didn't had this kind of situation coverd!
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