The current triangle seems to be breaking out as it is composed of 5-waves indicated A-E on the chart . As you can see this triangle is not right-angled triangle , which tends indicate a violent breakout is pending
Since we did have a very strong downwards trend in the 3 out of 5 sections down waves indicated by A,C,E of this triangle , it indicates that there is a high probability of a breakout lower, rather than higher. Since the market was down trending before the triangle formed is also bearish. Now if it shoots lower then i am looking for 1.1370 due to the height of the triangle and also we need a confirmation by it breaking below the 1.1575 C-wave lows
On Docket for the EURO this week :
- Inflation Data -- Currently expectations for the first interest rate rise in years at the ECB is expected end of 2019; inflation rate to remain at 2.0% in July and the Core rate to rise to 1.0% from 0.9% in June, on a year-on-year basis
- Q1 GDP data
On Docket for USD this week
-- FOMC
-- US Non-Farm payrolls
NOTE: EURO Bulls are a crazy bunch and infact most of the FX news channels and trading firms in Euro zone will always try to talk up the EURO even if the Data shows something else. You will always see them furiously have their news suggesting a rally and algorithms buy the EURUSD , just to let it drop violently. When their is clear data that indicates the EURUSD should rise that's fantastic , then we need to buy. EURO Zone has more than 27 countries but the EURO Bulls don't give a damn about any other country apart from Germany. So if any Germany numbers are good then you will see the EURUSD rally in most cases . The problem is that EU numbers include even the struggling economies.
So always be careful and watch the German numbers
Comment:
SOME FX OPTIONS EXPIRY ON 30/07/2018 at 10:00 am EST.
EURUSD
1.1595/00 1B
1.1670/80 770M
1.1690/00 757M
Note that EURUSD prices already touched 1.1670 to 1.1692 area so the 770M &757M might not be a big magnet at this moment. Probably the 1.1595 to 1.1600 tranche might be a bigger magnet
EURUSD
1.1595/00 1B
1.1670/80 770M
1.1690/00 757M
Note that EURUSD prices already touched 1.1670 to 1.1692 area so the 770M &757M might not be a big magnet at this moment. Probably the 1.1595 to 1.1600 tranche might be a bigger magnet
Comment:
Is anyone seeing this ? The US data is better and EU Data is soft but the EURUSD keeps rising. That's really odd. All options in that area of 1.1670 to 1.1700 had been taken out , so i am not sure what is causing the EURUSD rise. The 10-Year US T-Note has risen to 2.982 from the 2.800s , Gold is down , Oil is up to 70.8 . so my question is:
what was driving the 55 pips UP from 1.1655 to 1.1710 .
Doesn't make sense fundamentally or technically . SO i will turn to AI for some insights .
what was driving the 55 pips UP from 1.1655 to 1.1710 .
Doesn't make sense fundamentally or technically . SO i will turn to AI for some insights .
Comment:
German numbers have been better recently but the rest of EU Zone numbers are very soft. EURUSD has moved from 1.11621 to 1.1740 in the last 3 sessions.
The US number have been even better.
Assuming that over 100 pips rise is just due to big options expiry, Month-end EURO settlements and EURO Bulls euphoria then i will maintain Neutral to Bearish bias on EURUSD until 1.1790 is breached.
Most of the Analysts at FXstreet, MarketPulse or MarketWatch are usually Extremely EURO Bulls biased so if you use one of those sites take it with a grain of salt . They also do what we call " Double speak " and No wonder most traders don't trust this analysts that make your head spin.
I tend to combine data, technicals, fundamentals , price actions and AI insights to understand the market. Note: Technical analysis alone will not make you money in the market.
The US number have been even better.
Assuming that over 100 pips rise is just due to big options expiry, Month-end EURO settlements and EURO Bulls euphoria then i will maintain Neutral to Bearish bias on EURUSD until 1.1790 is breached.
Most of the Analysts at FXstreet, MarketPulse or MarketWatch are usually Extremely EURO Bulls biased so if you use one of those sites take it with a grain of salt . They also do what we call " Double speak " and No wonder most traders don't trust this analysts that make your head spin.
I tend to combine data, technicals, fundamentals , price actions and AI insights to understand the market. Note: Technical analysis alone will not make you money in the market.
Comment:
originally posted By James Skinner at poundsterlinglive
The Euro saw volatile trading during the morning session Tuesday as markets digested a better-than-expected set of July inflation figures that came alongside a surprise disappointment in second-quarter Eurozone GDP data, which showed growth slowing across the bloc during the three months to the end of June.
Eurozone inflation rose at an annualised pace of 2.1% during July, which is up from 2% previously, ahead of consensus expectations for inflation of 2% and also above the 2% target of the European Central Bank.
Core which removes volatile food and energy items from the goods basket and so is seen as a more reliable measure of domestically generated inflation pressures, rose by 1.1% in July. This was up from the 0.9% rate seen back in June and also ahead of the market consensus for a reading of 1%.
"This improvement reflected higher energy inflation and some public holiday timing effects, so there is no guarantee that it will be sustained," says Jennifer McKeown, chief European economist at Capital Economics.
Currency markets care about the inflation data because consumer price pressure have a direct bearing on the interest rate and other monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank, and it is changes in rates themselves that are the raison d'être for most moves in exchange rates.
Changes in interest rates, or hints of them being in the cards, are only made in response to movements in inflation but impact currencies because of the push and pull influence they have on international capital flows and their allure for short-term speculators.
McKeown says Tuesday's data is not enough to provide assurance of a sustainable return toward target for Eurozone inflation, which might at least partly explain the Euro's response to the data.
The Euro saw volatile trading during the morning session Tuesday as markets digested a better-than-expected set of July inflation figures that came alongside a surprise disappointment in second-quarter Eurozone GDP data, which showed growth slowing across the bloc during the three months to the end of June.
Eurozone inflation rose at an annualised pace of 2.1% during July, which is up from 2% previously, ahead of consensus expectations for inflation of 2% and also above the 2% target of the European Central Bank.
Core which removes volatile food and energy items from the goods basket and so is seen as a more reliable measure of domestically generated inflation pressures, rose by 1.1% in July. This was up from the 0.9% rate seen back in June and also ahead of the market consensus for a reading of 1%.
"This improvement reflected higher energy inflation and some public holiday timing effects, so there is no guarantee that it will be sustained," says Jennifer McKeown, chief European economist at Capital Economics.
Currency markets care about the inflation data because consumer price pressure have a direct bearing on the interest rate and other monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank, and it is changes in rates themselves that are the raison d'être for most moves in exchange rates.
Changes in interest rates, or hints of them being in the cards, are only made in response to movements in inflation but impact currencies because of the push and pull influence they have on international capital flows and their allure for short-term speculators.
McKeown says Tuesday's data is not enough to provide assurance of a sustainable return toward target for Eurozone inflation, which might at least partly explain the Euro's response to the data.
Comment:
Maybe some Decoupling of Data , EURUSD and DXY ? . For the last 3 sessions we have seen that for every good major news for US the EURUSD has rallied instead of dropping.
great US Economic Data == EURUSD rally
Soft EU Economic Data == EURUSD Rally
great Germany Economic Data == EURUSD Rally
Rest of EU Economic Data == Doesn't matter , EURUSD Rally
its a little strange but its month end so we have ,
- Some FX Option expiry this week
- Month-end Settlements for EURO and USD
- May be some EURO Bulls trying to get out of their monthly positions
i still maintain a Neutral to bearish bias until we breach 1.1790 Level then we are in Bullish bias territory
great US Economic Data == EURUSD rally
Soft EU Economic Data == EURUSD Rally
great Germany Economic Data == EURUSD Rally
Rest of EU Economic Data == Doesn't matter , EURUSD Rally
its a little strange but its month end so we have ,
- Some FX Option expiry this week
- Month-end Settlements for EURO and USD
- May be some EURO Bulls trying to get out of their monthly positions
i still maintain a Neutral to bearish bias until we breach 1.1790 Level then we are in Bullish bias territory
We are still trying to verify whether this pattern is a trend due to similar algorithms in the EURUSD market or a one-off or a pure manipulation by some major players