Akil_Stokes
Long

EURUSD: What's Going On With The EURO???

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
I wanted to title this post What’s Going On With The Euro? Because I honestly don’t have a clue. With the lack of movement in the markets, it’s been really difficult to get a true read on certain pairs since they just aren’t moving too much. With no major news out today and CPI             & FOMC coming tomorrow I’m expecting more of the same today.
None the less, it’s still important that I go through my I.P.D.E. process and at least make some predictions so that I have some sort of structure (no pun intended) going into the trading day.

As I always do with my analysis, what I have drawn on this chart is just a series of harmonic moves and Fibonacci extensions, inversions & retracements. They create a nice zone between the 1.1020-1.0980’s level. With that being said there’s no real level of structure at that level that gives me confidence in a reversal at that area so I’m not actively looking to get long there from a swing traders perspective. Could be a good day trading option if we get the right type of reaction once we hit it.

Anyway we’ll see what happens and hey, if you want to see me do this analysis live, I’m testing out a Youtube Live Stream today at 8am New York             time. Here’s the link (I think) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfiGYUGWiuM but if you’re subscribed to my youtube page you should be notified I believe (based off of the test this morning).

Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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JamesBowler
a year ago
Lets do this!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP JamesBowler
a year ago
Love the energy, after pretty much no sleep last night i needed that boost. Let's Go!!!
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I hope I wasn´t keeping you up with all my questions AKil? :D
There´s a Pennant in the daily chart for E/U.

snapshot
+2 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Henrik-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
a year ago
Nope, they little guys just didn't feel like sleeping last night
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Oh, so you have some Minions there? :)

What about that pennant? Typicaly means a bearish move breaking out from it..right?
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Henrik-HarmonicTrader-Sweden PRO Henrik-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
a year ago
....WHen the trend is bearish before the pennant...that is.
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Akil_Stokes TOP Henrik-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
a year ago
yeah i've got a 9 month old roaming around. and yes those type of consolidation patterns usually (not all of the time) break out in the direction of the trend
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Oh, cool. I´m waiting my second one in November.
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Akil_Stokes TOP Henrik-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
a year ago
Nice, congrats man, our will be 1 in novemember
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Akil_Stokes TOP Henrik-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
a year ago
Almost as good as a a month as October
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Hehe, yes indeed.
I have a daughter at 9 years aswell from an earlier relationship....so I´ve been there....those long nights....and even longer days at work.

 
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Hell of a 1st hour in the Live room today. hope you guys were able to catch some of it on the @Youtube Live Stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfiGYUGWiuM
+1 Reply
Youtube worked well. Just had to refresh the page once you where live.
Keep doing like that....let the commoners join until you take a break for the war room? :)
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Akil_Stokes TOP Henrik-HarmonicTrader-Sweden
a year ago
We'll see how it goes
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InsideMarket
a year ago
Good evening, Akil. Let me know if it helps you!
EURUSD: In consolidation, again.


EURUSD: In consolidation, again.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP InsideMarket
a year ago
I'm sure it's good analysis, but it doesn't fit with my trading philosophy. Thanks for sharing though as it may help others
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IvanLabrie InsideMarket
a year ago
That's a really, really weird impulse up.
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IvanLabrie
a year ago
Looking for longs here Akil?
I'm in because I'm long eurnzd, but this area looks interesting now.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP IvanLabrie
a year ago
If the right opportunity came yes, but honestly there's not much that I like about this chart. Too many minor levels of structure a nothing major
+2 Reply
Shun-Jiru IvanLabrie
a year ago
Hi Ivan and Akil,

Wed - Aug 19 -
12:30 - USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUL)
12:30 - USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
18:00 - USD U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July 28-29 FOMC Meeting
Fri - Aug 21 -
13:45 - USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug P)

With these USD news coming up you guys are still going to Long EU? Wouldn't the $ get more bullish?
I know USD is showing bearish signs, but why Long?

It broke all trend lines of upward momentum and officially came back to the old trend line made back earlier this year.

broke several trendlines... officially downtrend.
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Shun-Jiru Shun-Jiru
a year ago
FYI I'm still short from 1.1174 last Wednesday. My target is either 1.096 or 1.088. I'll make my decision to close tomorrow or Thursday.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Shun-Jiru
a year ago
Congrats on your short, and to your question above, firstly I'm not a fundamental trader so all of my trading decisions are base doff of technical analysis. Secondly, one of the issues I have with fundamental analysis is that 1) we don't know if the news will be good or bad for the USD and 2) (more importantly) good news doesn't always equal a positive reaction and vice versa, which makes it very hard to make consistent decisions based off of the fundamentals unless you're a longer term trader.
+4 Reply
Shun-Jiru Akil_Stokes
a year ago
Gotcha. We're in the same boat then. "We don't know, We can't predict the future."
I just have my money on the fact that regardless of the news tomorrow USD will be bullish even if the news is bad.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Shun-Jiru
a year ago
One point of advice, down the road, always be aware that news may already be priced into the markets. not saying that it's valid in this case, but usually by the time the "public" looks to jump on the move, smart money is on it's way out
+2 Reply
Shun-Jiru Akil_Stokes
a year ago
I agree with you on that, but when news come out there's always a trail of reaction.
For example when the Greece market opened and went down 17%, the reaction to the EU was a day late.
I believe in that situation, "people already closed out their trade to minimize loss", and perhaps that might be the reason why the EU reacted the next day.

I think tomorrow's news is going to be the 40 pips that all the bears have been looking for it to hit 1.0966. People will have placed their long entries down at 1.093ish. I think it's going to Hammer down and Hammer back up. Whether it'll break the top trend line again will be a mystery for me.

+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Shun-Jiru
a year ago
Good luck, just remember people are unpredictable, so be care with trying to guess their reactions. But that's also why there will always be the battle between fundamental and technical traders.
+1 Reply
Shun-Jiru Akil_Stokes
a year ago
Good luck to you as well. Insight for Insight. The more we know the better decision we will be able to make. The more money we all make.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Shun-Jiru
a year ago
Amen to that
+2 Reply
dangap Akil_Stokes
a year ago
Hi Akil,

What do you mean exactly when you say news may already be priced into the market? I kinda know what you mean in a sense when you say it but could you give a quick example if ya don't mind.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP dangap
a year ago
Typically by the time news hits the mainstream CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. talking about it, the actually effect has already been priced into the markets, meaning that smart money has already taken their positions in advance since they have access to a lot more information then your average trader. So for example, when the US raises rates we may see a lot of the public rush to buy dollars because of the hike, while smart money had already acummilated their positions a year or so ago and may be using those new orders to get out of what they've already established. Hope that makes sense, but if you have the time check out the Wyckoff Cycle of how price moves and that should provide a clear picture
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Akil_Stokes TOP dangap
a year ago
Think about it like getting on a trend, the best time to buy a breakout, is before it breaks out
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dangap Akil_Stokes
a year ago
Thanks Akil, I understand now.
+1 Reply
Shun-Jiru Akil_Stokes
a year ago
looks like it's going no where... i just closed... going to sit this one out
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Shun-Jiru
a year ago
Thought you were waiting for the FOMC minutes?
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Shun-Jiru Shun-Jiru
a year ago
There's the bullish movement. Hope you guys got in and got some pips.
-Cheers
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I think I can see Gartley pattern here
EURUSD M15/H1 - Mr Gartley
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie leszekstanislaw
a year ago
The decline has been really erratic.
I'm not doing anything until tomorrow, I got out of all trades.
It's best to stay aside until we get clear signals.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP IvanLabrie
a year ago
I right with you on that. No need in throwing any money way just for the hell of it. We'll see if the CPI and FOMC can clear things up tomorrow
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Akil_Stokes TOP leszekstanislaw
a year ago
Nice!
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Good morning Akil!! Your help is amazing!!
I would like to ask you if there is a site, a blog or a secret corner which gives a prediction if the forecast of the releasing news will be correct.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP michalis.sideris.9
a year ago
There are services you can pay for that will give you the release seconds before they hit, but I'm not sure of what they are.
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Akil_Stokes TOP michalis.sideris.9
a year ago
Just remember good news doesn't always mean a good reaction, if you were thinking about trying to play the news release game
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meganjack
a year ago
EURUSD
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Ken_Humphrey
a year ago
It looks to me like the EURUSD is at the 200 day moving average just above the daily pivot point and it has tested the 200 MA 3 other times over the last 7 days. Could this mean a potential breakout for the bulls?
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meganjack
a year ago
EURUSD Next Target 1.1180
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ErrolMuller
a year ago
Awesome analysis Akil !!!!
If there is anybody that has taken the Advanced Pattern Trader course of Jason and Akil, please follow me or leave me a message and i will follow you.
Love sharing Ideas and 2 Brains are better than 1 hehe and so are 4 eyes to recognize a pattern better than 2 eyes!!! Good trading people and always stay positive ;)
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