FCPO - Eye on Export Data

Palm oil had dropped almost 150 points in just two weeks time as concern on rising inventory. In fact, demand were surprisingly good during the first 15 days of September. The first 20 days export data is due on today. Trader please be cautious if the continue strong demand will trigger potential price rebound if market have overdone. Speculation of 3.3 m inventory by Dorab still uncertain with surprised demand.

On the left chart showing a 2 months chart, the horizontal line in orange plot at 2013 Jul low 2137, If you look at the the entire chart, price did not trade lower than this for almost a decade except 2014 to 2015. As price near to this level, market is expect to be volatile. Meantime,

In technical view, price may initiate rebound with nearing long term price zone 2137. Market is expect to open higher with Soyoil increased 1.36% from yesterday 6 pm closing of Bursa FCPO1!. And price have achieved 7 multiples of golden ratio at 2158 (see right chart)

If rebound, resistance at 2175 to 2187.
If open gap up, price may fill the gap and trend remain favorable to selling.
If open gap up, price do not fill the gap fully, price factoring in potential strength for rebound.

Stay tune for intraday updates in the same post.

Comment:

Price reached 2137 in the afternoon accompany selling in Soyoil. Market quickly retraced from 2137 but the trend remain bearish. Latest export data remain high as follow. Please monitor MPOA data in coming days.

Malaysian Sept. 1-20 palm oil exports +72.7% m/m to 1,051,807 tons: AmSpec