FCPO - Surprising Survey Data

The strong demand in September month have potential to consume rising production. As suggested from yesterday survey data released by Bloomberg and CIMB. Surveys are expecting an unchange inventory for Sep month from Bloomberg and expecting slightly rised by CIMB. (See Below data) Meanwhile, market is waiting Reuters survey data and the first five days SPPOMA production for Oct. Yesterday price rally were largely reflecting the surprised survey data.

The price found crucial support in 2137 as suggested earlier (see previous post for explanation). The current rebound still premature to justify as trend reversal but seen as price rebound. Refer to the right chart, rebound will seen major resistance at 2240. And shorter term time frame on right charts showing price rebound have reached projection price 2233 yesterday. With soyoil down 1.58% overnight and slightly lower oil price, FCPO has retraced from 2232 and reflect the sentiment.

Trader please monitor price level 2233 to 2240 to indicate further direction. If price stay below this zone, FCPO remain in down trend. Otherwise, stronger rebound above 2240.


Bloomberg Poll Sep vs Aug MPOB:
Prodn 1.86m vs 1.62m (+15%)
Impt 70k vs 80k
Expt 1.65m vs 1.10m (+50%)
LDsp 240k-330k
Stks 2.49m vs 2.49m (unch)

CIMB Poll:
Prodn 1.858m (+15%)
Impt 80k
Expt 1.649m (+50%)
LDsp 280k
Stks 2.498m (+0.4%)