FETUSD
Fetch appears to have completed an ABC correction. It established 0.48-0.56 as an area of support with the November-December consolidation and then retested that support during the corrective phase, hitting the VWAP anchored to the 10/23/23 breakout. It met overhead resistance at the VWAP anchored the the 12/26/23 prior high. Clearing and retesting this level will imply an opportunity in the 0.80-0.90 range. A close below 0.5 would invalidate.
Comment:
FET is one of my largest alt positions. I generally take 1/4 to 1/3 of profits early in a trade and then re-evaluate. Continuing from the current level could meet the next resistance in the 2.50-2.70 aera. However, my forecast for this cycle remains in the $6 range.
Comment:
Taking a second look at anchored VWAPS, momentum indicators, and trend for FET. I anchored a VWAP to the beginning of the price recovery in 2022 (who wishes that we were all buying when it was $0.09?) Then I anchored one to 10/27/23 which was the last time that price visited the VWAP from 2022 recovery. Then a 3rd to 2/7/24 which is now the last VWAP connecting us to the 2022 recovery. This will be key support going forward.
While RSI has remained bullish, we see that the price momentum indicator and the derivative price indicator each rolled over on 2/23/23, with price remaining relatively flat. The composite index moved into expansion on 2/27 with DPO recovering on 2/27 and PMO recovering on 2/28.
I took a fib retrace from 2/27 to the recent high and a fib extension from the 2/7 breakout to the 2/23 high and the 2/27 composite index crossover. Confluence of fib levels continue to suggest that ~1.64 is a strong area for re-accumulation, while a move below ~1.40 is likely to have further downside. If adding at 1.64 and using 1.40 as a stop, be aware that overhead price level at the 1.618 extension is a setup below a 3:1 risk reward. I would only re-accumulate at if you are comfortable with a lower risk reward and/or believe that we are continuing beyond 2.40-2.70.
While RSI has remained bullish, we see that the price momentum indicator and the derivative price indicator each rolled over on 2/23/23, with price remaining relatively flat. The composite index moved into expansion on 2/27 with DPO recovering on 2/27 and PMO recovering on 2/28.
I took a fib retrace from 2/27 to the recent high and a fib extension from the 2/7 breakout to the 2/23 high and the 2/27 composite index crossover. Confluence of fib levels continue to suggest that ~1.64 is a strong area for re-accumulation, while a move below ~1.40 is likely to have further downside. If adding at 1.64 and using 1.40 as a stop, be aware that overhead price level at the 1.618 extension is a setup below a 3:1 risk reward. I would only re-accumulate at if you are comfortable with a lower risk reward and/or believe that we are continuing beyond 2.40-2.70.
Comment:
I would normally accumulate at this fib level and remain bullish above this VWAP that connects back to supporting VWAPs anchored to the 2022 breakout. But momentum rolling over hard with a H&S is concerning.
I'm taking profit here and reducing the position by 25%. I will re-accumulate if we see it fall to ~1.88 and establish support there.
I would normally accumulate at this fib level and remain bullish above this VWAP that connects back to supporting VWAPs anchored to the 2022 breakout. But momentum rolling over hard with a H&S is concerning.
I'm taking profit here and reducing the position by 25%. I will re-accumulate if we see it fall to ~1.88 and establish support there.