NaughtyPines
Short

OPENING: FXE JUNE 16TH 102/103/105/107 IRON CONDOR

AMEX:FXE   INVESCO CCY SHS EURO TR EURO SHS ETF
Basically, a synthetic short FXE position with some put side flexibility in the event that I am totally wrong ... .

Metrics:

POP%: 46%
Max Profit: $95/contract
Max Loss/BPE: $105/contract
BE's at 102.04/105.96
Theta: .38
Delta: -22

Notes: Shooting for 50% max ... .
Comment: Covering the near worthless put side here for a .04 db. I looked at rolling up the entire put side, rolling just the put, etc., but couldn't seem to get squat for doing that, so will look at reestablishing the short put side on a down day or just exiting the short call side at 50% max if I get a shot at that. Scratch point is .91.
Comment: Rolling the 107 long call up intratrade to the June 16th 108 long call for a .48 credit. Scratch point is now 1.39. I'll still shoot for the original profit target of .48, so will take the trade off at 1.39 - .48 = .91.
Comment: Wow. This is enormously pesky to defend. It's virtually impossible to sell an oppositional side against for, well, anything, so rolling up the long call again to the 109 for a .45 credit. Scratch point at 1.84.
Comment: Generally unwise to add to a losing position, but I'm somewhat set on my assumption of rate hike and/or hawkish tone around FOMC, so sold a June 16th 108/110 short call vert for an .82 credit. Scratch point at 2.66. If I'm wrong, I'll obviously be "paying the piper."
Trade active: Finally turning over somewhat with dollar (DXY) pulling off six-month lows.
Trade active: Draghi speaks before the European Parliament Econ Committee today ... . C'mon, Mario, help me out here ... .
Trade active: This is probably "too little, too late," but buying a July 21st 108/111 long call vertical for a 1.36 db to delta hedge. If price caves as I originally wanted it to, I will roll it over to a credit spread; if not, it'll mitigate further upside loss. Still hopeful that a June rate hike will bring this down at the last moment.
Trade active: Rolling the July 21st 111 short call down to the 109 for a .47 credit; just trying to claw back a little credit from that delta hedge ... . The June aspect will either work around FOMC or it won't; we'll probably see on Wednesday whether that's already baked in or not ... .
Trade active: With the June expiry 110 long call nearing worthless, rolling it into the 109 for a .14 db to hem in risk a bit if this thing doesn't do what I want it to around FOMC (scratch at 2.80 for June action).
Comment: Correction -- scratch at 2.66 - .14 = 2.52.
Trade closed manually: Covering the June part of the setup for a 4.14 db, resulting in a loss of 1.62 for the credit spreads. I still have the July delta hedge on (now a 108/109 long call vert; scratch point .89), but will wait until next to week to deal with it.
Trade closed manually: And covering the July 108/109 long call vert for a .37 credit here, so loss is 1.36 - .47 - . 37 = .52 for that little fella ... . June, ugh, not the best month I've had ... .
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