However the last few day's we see a lot of analyses on TV telling that the continuation is about to start. This can very well be the case, but breaking means nothing. If you understand the market dynamic and where price movements really come from, you understand why many analyses posted lately don't make any sense. I don't want to offend anyone but since I'm posting here as well I will warn my followers. Keep in mind that the Brexit scenario is leading the Pound. Structure in all Pound pairs are in a complex corrective combination mostly because of that. This means that we will see many overlaps, many impulses without follow up etc. Although the Pound sold off, no single Pound pair confirmed anything yet and even if we see some kind of confirmation this can be a confirmation of a 3 wave down or 5 wave down. This is crucial when trading structure. I will be looking for a fifth wave lower to confirm that we either see a wave A or 1 lower. Again be careful trading these pairs after such a strong move because it can be erased easily. I don't say anyone is wrong I just say that what has been posted is often not making sense because of the lack of context. I will try to give you some context in this post by means of this easy wave count. Safest trade is to wait for the 5 wave pattern and the correction that HAS to follow. Only once that is in place and confirmed sell the continuation for wave C or 3 and trade with more than 90% probability and less stress and a far smaller stop loss and higher R/R. If you are in the sell from the top you can try to keep the trade open, that is what I plan to do with my remaining position until things change. You can also look for a sell once wave 4 is in place.
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I'm looking for a consolidation by means of at least 3 waves. Once that is in place I will be looking to sell the bearish continuation. The bottom for wave 5 is only an indication and not yet confirmed.
Agree with you that the next direction of this pair now is still uncertain. RR is not so good on the sell atm.
The short term driver for this pair now might be the OPEC meeting later, if they can't seal a deal on supply freeze which is what the market expected it will drag this pair down another leg but if they can agree on output freeze this pair will fly.
Where do YOU see the next high to jump in and short this pair again??
I appriciate your answer and thoughts so I have something to compare with my own. I think for this time GBPAUD will find the bottom at 1.9670 (+- 10) and go higher for next high. Little bit oversold maybe!
Thanks for your reply, I really appriciate that.