The basis of the trade was that this pair is in a downtrend of approximately 680 Pips over the past 200 bars. Within this downtrend we saw two corrective bounces of approximately 110 Pips or 16% of the total move down. Statistics show that 20% or less provide very reliable trades. The "smart money" prefer corrective moves of 15% or less and we all know the big boys in the financial markets are the "smart money". A very rare corrective move is 10% or less, statistically they provide profitable trades close to 90% of the time.
Keep in mind the longer timeframe charts, 4 hour and daily are better when seeking out trends. Shorter timeframe charts, 15 minute, 30 minute and 1 hour are not as reliable, creating a riskier trade if you choose to take it.
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