I think price will be able to push to the 1.35 lvl as time goes on. The UK is struggling to keep its economy afloat while simultaneously the BOE is attempting to fight inflation. One or the other needs to happen and a soft landing is not going to happen, especially with double digit inflation. Canada's economy I think will be able to resist a recession. It may happen, but won't be as severe as other countries. Canada also has a trade surplus along with Australia. The BOC is holding on rate hikes but will raise rates if needed. Oil is pushing lower, but in the future, is likely to rise as OPEC+ looks to keep prices higher and the on going Russia/Ukraine issues. I think the move lower, will happen towards the end of the 2nd Quarter/beginning of the 3rd Quarter and last up until the end of the 4th Quarter or into next year. We seem to be in the eye of the storm, and there is something bound to set something off. Regardless though, how long can the UK economy hold on?
Trade closed: stop reached:
Price is moving and nearing the 1.65 lvl. I had a stop in place in the event price kept pushing higher and it did. I am going to wait and see what price does next, but for now I am going to stay our of it.
Comment:
Price is pushing higher and nearing the 1.70 lvl. With the thoughts of the FED thinking about not going at rate hikes aggressively and the potential of the ECB and BOE raising interest rates further (they are likely going to have to unless they want inflation to keep increasing), the 1.70 lvl might be realized by the beginning of next Quarter. If price does push higher, I am thinking of starting to build a position. I'll start off with a probe and see how that does, and start increasing my position above the 1.70. If I am able to build a position around the 1.72 / 1.73 lvl, see price move lower to around 1.68, and have a stop at 1.70, I'll be in a great place to just see price push lower, and possibly move my stop accordingly. For now, I wait to see what the GBPCAD will do.