CBMotivation
Short

Pound / Yen - the most interesting of sterling pairs - SHORT

OANDA:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
I've already discussed the Yen in the "Safe haven" idea, in the links below and this pair is no different. Will the BoE raise interest rates today, I'd be surprised if they did, and it will only be 25 basis points if they do, this will send the pound souring, but for how long. While the UK is indebted to the tune of 1.4 trillion, BREXIT is still here, the prospect of no deal is still there and this will scare the markets to death, corporations love legislation and complexity, they have the expertise, cash and people to deal with it, it's why they love the EU, they are technocrats, despite the fact that the majority of jobs are in SME's, institution money is in the corporations, so this is the worry for those market movers.

Long term, sterling has been down against the Yen since before Brexit, that's right, before BREXIT, it started to fall from the highs of 188 in 2015, there was a 50% fib pullback at the start of 2018 and we've now restarted the move back down to support levels 140, 136 and 128. There is also a lovely fat bearish pin bar on the weekly chart.

If you aren't already in this trade, I am, wait for a pullback in the highs of the range of the channel around 147 and sell it back down.

3% of account only on entry at 147 with a sell signal, stops above 148, first target at 143 then 141.
Comment: As I said, even if the interest increases, its not enough to have a major impact, the pound "soured" for half an hour and straight back down, lovely profit so far

Comment: On the weekly chart, the weekly candle is forming a pin bar, highlighted are the previous long pin bars are their subsequent moves, if you don't know how to enter these, see my education links below



How to enter a trade
Comment: We already tested 145, I'm looking for a retest of that low

Comment: We have non-farm payroll today and some reasonable metrics that will impact the markets across the board, so an interesting first Friday of the month, currently I have an incredible portfolio of very profitable trades right now, check out my ideas, June and July was my biggest periods ever, but least amount of trades.

As for Sterling, no surprise that the markets hated the 25 bp increase in interest rates, not only was it pointless, but it was the opposite of what the economy needs in times of an uncertain BREXIT period, another poor leadership choice from Mr Carney.

Expecting some lower lows on my basket of sterling trades... what are your thoughts so far?


Comment: Huge disparity between Pound and Yen strength

Comment: Fully expect a small pullback to 145 this week, then or before a further move to the downside towards 143.8 and maybe lower to 143 within 7 - 14 days.

Comment: So many bailed early on this pair, we're still moving to the downside

Comment: We're approaching the channel centre line and some major support, but right now, there is no response from the bulls. We have some numbers at midnight tonight on the Yen that are forecast positive, Brexit will still be the winner here and the noise coming from the BoJ on their potential change in fiscal approach.

Comment: As forecast we've hit 144 and got a little bounce, now, will it continue on down, GBP / AUD also breaking down nicely.

Trade closed: target reached: Time to target: 5 days
Profit: 335 pips
3% risk - 1:3 return (9%)
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