GBP
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE
The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However, it’s important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that they expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don’t come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened, the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain. A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from August which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates in Q1, we do think the over optimistic moves in money markets poses short-term headwinds.
2. The country’s economic developments
The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers provided a favourable environment for Sterling and the strength of the economic recovery has meant solid growth differentials favouring GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably priced, and the recent slowdown in activity data that suggests peak growth has been reached could mean an uphill push for GBP to see the same size of outperformance we saw earlier. With our above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to downside surprises than was the case a few months ago. Even though the current fuel challenges should not be enough to derail the economic recovery, the NatGas shortage is much more serious and if not resolved quickly could add to some additional price pressures which in the past few sessions have seen even more aggressive pricing from money markets for additional tightening.
3. Political Developments
Even though a Brexit deal was reached at the end of last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge right now it seems like a never ending can kicking could see these issues drag on for a long time. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2182 with a net non-commercial position of +1964. The downside in the Pound this week was something else, slicing through key technical levels on majority of the GBP crosses. Even though the over-aggressive money markets and subsequent moves in SONIA futures we think can explain some of the angst, there is also a far less complicated reason for the downside. Even though large speculators were neutral on Sterling, leveraged funds had a very sizable net-long built up in Sterling in a very short space of time, which meant when key technical levels were breached it was a very fast run to the exists and fast money scrambled to get out of dodge. With the reprieve in Sterling only starting Thursday and CFTC cut off on Tuesday, we would expect to see a sizeable unwind of those leveraged funds longs. Furthermore, after the run lower, we are actively looking to add back to GBP on the long side
JPY
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH
1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook
As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY.
2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y
As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. The rangebound price action in US10Y from July saw our conviction for more upside in USDJPY take a knock, and we have been waiting for US10Y to make a more sustainable break before we look to add longs in USDJPY . This week, we finally saw US10Y being able to clear the key 1.38% level that has acted as strong resistance since July. Thus, as long as US10Y manages to stay above 1.38% we would look for pull backs in USDJPY to look for med-term buy opportunities. However, since 1.38% was such a key level, any break and close below 1.38% for the US10Y would be an automatic trigger to reduce any exposure.
3. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -8689 with a net non-commercial position of -64760. The past few days of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side, with US10Y climbing 20 basis points (that’s a lot for the bond market by the way) in a very short space of time. The inverse correlation to US10Y saw massive downside versus the USD at the start of the week, and then as yields cooled off and risk sentiment started to sour towards the end of the week, we saw some mild reprieve coming back for the JPY. For now, the bias remains firmly titled to the downside in the med-term , but as always, any major risk off flows can support the JPY, especially with quite a sizable net-short position still built up in the currency. It’s not only large speculators but also leveraged funds that are net-short the JPY, so expect any major risk off flows to favour the JPY, unless that risk off flow is driven by strong moves higher in US10Y of course so just keep that in mind.
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE
The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However, it’s important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that they expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don’t come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened, the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain. A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from August which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates in Q1, we do think the over optimistic moves in money markets poses short-term headwinds.
2. The country’s economic developments
The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers provided a favourable environment for Sterling and the strength of the economic recovery has meant solid growth differentials favouring GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably priced, and the recent slowdown in activity data that suggests peak growth has been reached could mean an uphill push for GBP to see the same size of outperformance we saw earlier. With our above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to downside surprises than was the case a few months ago. Even though the current fuel challenges should not be enough to derail the economic recovery, the NatGas shortage is much more serious and if not resolved quickly could add to some additional price pressures which in the past few sessions have seen even more aggressive pricing from money markets for additional tightening.
3. Political Developments
Even though a Brexit deal was reached at the end of last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge right now it seems like a never ending can kicking could see these issues drag on for a long time. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road.
4. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2182 with a net non-commercial position of +1964. The downside in the Pound this week was something else, slicing through key technical levels on majority of the GBP crosses. Even though the over-aggressive money markets and subsequent moves in SONIA futures we think can explain some of the angst, there is also a far less complicated reason for the downside. Even though large speculators were neutral on Sterling, leveraged funds had a very sizable net-long built up in Sterling in a very short space of time, which meant when key technical levels were breached it was a very fast run to the exists and fast money scrambled to get out of dodge. With the reprieve in Sterling only starting Thursday and CFTC cut off on Tuesday, we would expect to see a sizeable unwind of those leveraged funds longs. Furthermore, after the run lower, we are actively looking to add back to GBP on the long side
JPY
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH
1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook
As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY.
2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y
As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. The rangebound price action in US10Y from July saw our conviction for more upside in USDJPY take a knock, and we have been waiting for US10Y to make a more sustainable break before we look to add longs in USDJPY . This week, we finally saw US10Y being able to clear the key 1.38% level that has acted as strong resistance since July. Thus, as long as US10Y manages to stay above 1.38% we would look for pull backs in USDJPY to look for med-term buy opportunities. However, since 1.38% was such a key level, any break and close below 1.38% for the US10Y would be an automatic trigger to reduce any exposure.
3. CFTC Analysis
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -8689 with a net non-commercial position of -64760. The past few days of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side, with US10Y climbing 20 basis points (that’s a lot for the bond market by the way) in a very short space of time. The inverse correlation to US10Y saw massive downside versus the USD at the start of the week, and then as yields cooled off and risk sentiment started to sour towards the end of the week, we saw some mild reprieve coming back for the JPY. For now, the bias remains firmly titled to the downside in the med-term , but as always, any major risk off flows can support the JPY, especially with quite a sizable net-short position still built up in the currency. It’s not only large speculators but also leveraged funds that are net-short the JPY, so expect any major risk off flows to favour the JPY, unless that risk off flow is driven by strong moves higher in US10Y of course so just keep that in mind.