GBPUSD: Weekly view - Potential for a monster rally

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
The Pound is at a make or break level.
It's possible that Rgmov plots new 44 bar highs this week after the close. The advance after price tested low volume support below has been fierce but the lower timeframe uptrend signals have reached targets already.

The level above price right now is a make or break one, where a confluence of technicals reside:
  • Fibonacci time running out next week. If this move is of the same degree as the fierce advance off the lowest low to the quarterly mode, it must end asap             .
  • This is right at the 0.382 level from the highest high to the low since the last big decline ended. People ARE watching this fibonacci zones, as evidenced by the 50% level rejecting price (this was also a quarterly mode level...most likely this sent it down, but the fib 'was' there too)
  • If we trace a speed line from each major swing high to swing low, we can see that the major decline one's has been broken up, the next leg up has been broken down, and the last one from current swing high to swing low is right in front of the advance. Will this one break up or will it contain the advance here?
  • 10 period moving average of the highs lies above price right now.
  • After this week's close, we will have a new uptrend mode, starting from the lowest low. If the week closes above, upside continuation would be probable.
  • Weekly range expansion resistance. The most recent one is about to be breached, but the previous one lies right above the mode level.
  • Modified Schiff Pitchfork's upper median line resistance. If we were to use a normal Pitchfork , then it would already have failed to contain price, and we would be looking at a trigger line long signal if this week were to close above it. This is also a significant long term trendline that many people will monitor, and it's about to break.
  • Inside trendline broken up, this is bullish .

I'll update this thread as we move forward.

Ivan Labrie

Time at Mode FX
Comment: It appears like the Pound has what it takes to break up, I'll enter from lower timeframes, monitoring 4h.
Comment: Minor set back, seems to be capped here, but not falling either. I'm long GBPJPY, not touching GBPUSD for now.
The level rejected the weekly advance, and we have a close under it. This isn't bullish, I'll analyze price action next week to ascertain direction, but it's not looking rosy for GBP.
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