This is it.... full retrace from Friday the 13th (brrrrrr)
It has been 1 month and 1 day since QE infinity was announced to save boomers IRAs - er I mean officially to "save the economy" (haha) because of this deadly virus that is sole responsible to blame for the crash (HAHAHAHA!).
Increase the supply of dollars of course how does the world reacts? They run to the safe haven they know, the us dollar (genius). Except China & Russia and many other central banks that are stacking gold and getting ready to say bye bye.
The dollar has lost most of its gains since "money printer go brrr"...
The euro is constantly devalued so I don't even expect it to ever regain what has been lost but we'll see...
For second tier currencies (Brazil Turkey SA...) I don't think this changes much... Just a quick pullback maybe?
I don't follow those closely (I cannot study everything) so when the paradigm will change and they will reverse I will miss it probably.
The pound got really hammered with all the FUD. I went long got stopped then short then crash, then I was a good boy and patient and waited for a reversal uptrend then pullback, and now it recovered entirely from that day where currencies went parabolic crazy.
Staying in the trade while the price is in - or above - the channel.
Testing moving averages so I know it can pullback a bit, I want to leave the pound some breathing room but not too much either...
This was the biggest volatility spike on GBPUSD for a while, it double to tripled and was pretty brutal but it was not something new and unseen...
EURUSD same story, last ones I think creeped up and lasted longer thought, this was sudden and very quick (might not be over ESMA is crying)
AUDUSD...
Oil didn't have the same dates, but it's interesting to note. Oil got jealous of Bitcoin I think.
You have to go back to 2013 when BTC was small to get surges bigger than Oil recently
Food could not care less...
10 year treasuries biggest surge since 2008...
Gold same story...
Copper biggest volatility in 8 years
Everything I look at...
So clearly we can see something.
There is no "isolation" (maybe grains & softs).
There is no such thing as going "I don't look at indices I am a Forex trader", the world economy causes massive moves in FX, Gold, Oil, Copper, (NatGas), Bonds obviously (FED are buying infinite bonds), and even crypto.
And there is no such thing as "I turn off tv and ignore everything", I spend 30 minutes a day on my laptop to make money (rofl does anyone believe this?)
In this game you learn everything is probabilities and nothing is certain can't be stubborn, but I will be stubborn here, if you do not like to absorb alot of info and think alot about markets, this is not for you.
And the "pick your entry target and stop" sounds idiotic to me. So when the price is at 90% of your target what? You won't move your stop? Risk 9 to make 1 lol?
What famous pro ever does this? No what I have seen is they are active, they have the control to not touch their trades all the time but they do manage them, and read every day, it's not just Warren Buffet that reads (I forgot how much but it was an incredible amount), speculators obviously have to form an opinion somehow.
Jesse Livermore said this:
"IT IS NOT GOOD TO BE TOO CURIOUS ABOUT ALL THE REASONS BEHIND PRICE MOVEMENTS"
I ranted about this in my previous idea ("They're all blaming the meltdown on the virus...")
He also said "continue with trade that show you a profit" and "end trades when it is clear the trend you are profitting from is over"
Aaand I found a quote about what I was saying "A man must study general conditions, to seize them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities."
You need to absorb info obviously, what is this joke about spending 30 minutes a day looking at charts?
Did you know Jesse Livermore did not use charts? There were no charts his entire life afaik. He wrote prices in a notebook.
That way he could spot trends and area of supports. You can imagine it takes time to hold a book such as this and identify levels and everything, with no chart.
And to add to the studying, he says it:
"To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate."
Since the 13 March there is (price recovery from the wild moves) + (normal price movements). Can't tell if the entire first part is recovered, and how much comes from the rest, plus there are indirect implications and everything. I would say most of the moves are retraced. Everytime...
Anyway, here I don't know, so I just stay in the trend while it goes my way, that simple.
Got something interesting to do: study price action during the spikes (2015-2016 & 2008 & 2020) looking at stocks and FX and hard commodities.
Another thing, I posted about central bank dates a few months ago. I think more now that action is dicted by central banks and when there's not many meeting not much goes on it's all slow with no opportunities. Central banks control everything, especially the FED they control the world its insane, seems everything else is noise.
Here:
CNBC and so on, their opinions are worthless, if you should check just one source it's one that clearly and cleanly relays central bank meetings and announcements.
Such a site, but the interface is not very sexy:
www.centralbanknews.info
Increase the supply of dollars of course how does the world reacts? They run to the safe haven they know, the us dollar (genius). Except China & Russia and many other central banks that are stacking gold and getting ready to say bye bye.
The dollar has lost most of its gains since "money printer go brrr"...
The euro is constantly devalued so I don't even expect it to ever regain what has been lost but we'll see...
For second tier currencies (Brazil Turkey SA...) I don't think this changes much... Just a quick pullback maybe?
I don't follow those closely (I cannot study everything) so when the paradigm will change and they will reverse I will miss it probably.
The pound got really hammered with all the FUD. I went long got stopped then short then crash, then I was a good boy and patient and waited for a reversal uptrend then pullback, and now it recovered entirely from that day where currencies went parabolic crazy.
Staying in the trade while the price is in - or above - the channel.
Testing moving averages so I know it can pullback a bit, I want to leave the pound some breathing room but not too much either...
This was the biggest volatility spike on GBPUSD for a while, it double to tripled and was pretty brutal but it was not something new and unseen...
EURUSD same story, last ones I think creeped up and lasted longer thought, this was sudden and very quick (might not be over ESMA is crying)
AUDUSD...
Oil didn't have the same dates, but it's interesting to note. Oil got jealous of Bitcoin I think.
You have to go back to 2013 when BTC was small to get surges bigger than Oil recently
Food could not care less...
10 year treasuries biggest surge since 2008...
Gold same story...
Copper biggest volatility in 8 years
Everything I look at...
So clearly we can see something.
There is no "isolation" (maybe grains & softs).
There is no such thing as going "I don't look at indices I am a Forex trader", the world economy causes massive moves in FX, Gold, Oil, Copper, (NatGas), Bonds obviously (FED are buying infinite bonds), and even crypto.
And there is no such thing as "I turn off tv and ignore everything", I spend 30 minutes a day on my laptop to make money (rofl does anyone believe this?)
In this game you learn everything is probabilities and nothing is certain can't be stubborn, but I will be stubborn here, if you do not like to absorb alot of info and think alot about markets, this is not for you.
And the "pick your entry target and stop" sounds idiotic to me. So when the price is at 90% of your target what? You won't move your stop? Risk 9 to make 1 lol?
What famous pro ever does this? No what I have seen is they are active, they have the control to not touch their trades all the time but they do manage them, and read every day, it's not just Warren Buffet that reads (I forgot how much but it was an incredible amount), speculators obviously have to form an opinion somehow.
Jesse Livermore said this:
"IT IS NOT GOOD TO BE TOO CURIOUS ABOUT ALL THE REASONS BEHIND PRICE MOVEMENTS"
I ranted about this in my previous idea ("They're all blaming the meltdown on the virus...")
He also said "continue with trade that show you a profit" and "end trades when it is clear the trend you are profitting from is over"
Aaand I found a quote about what I was saying "A man must study general conditions, to seize them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities."
You need to absorb info obviously, what is this joke about spending 30 minutes a day looking at charts?
Did you know Jesse Livermore did not use charts? There were no charts his entire life afaik. He wrote prices in a notebook.
That way he could spot trends and area of supports. You can imagine it takes time to hold a book such as this and identify levels and everything, with no chart.
And to add to the studying, he says it:
"To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate."
Since the 13 March there is (price recovery from the wild moves) + (normal price movements). Can't tell if the entire first part is recovered, and how much comes from the rest, plus there are indirect implications and everything. I would say most of the moves are retraced. Everytime...
Anyway, here I don't know, so I just stay in the trend while it goes my way, that simple.
Got something interesting to do: study price action during the spikes (2015-2016 & 2008 & 2020) looking at stocks and FX and hard commodities.
Another thing, I posted about central bank dates a few months ago. I think more now that action is dicted by central banks and when there's not many meeting not much goes on it's all slow with no opportunities. Central banks control everything, especially the FED they control the world its insane, seems everything else is noise.
Here:
CNBC and so on, their opinions are worthless, if you should check just one source it's one that clearly and cleanly relays central bank meetings and announcements.
Such a site, but the interface is not very sexy:
www.centralbanknews.info
Comment:
Trade closed: stop reached:
This is the end it's all over.
Too heavy for me.
GBPAUD still going up thought no need to sell that one but worth it to consider a tight trailing stop.
Too heavy for me.
GBPAUD still going up thought no need to sell that one but worth it to consider a tight trailing stop.
Not sure when I sleep, hopefully soon, not very much happens usually in the next 10 hours.
Probably won't bother moving my stop loss, luckilly won't spike hard then drop hard.