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ANALYSIS: GBPUSD; Has A Wave 3 of 3 Begun? Or Not Yet?

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
CONFUSION! That is the operative word for this pair over the past couple of weeks AND continuing! But there's possibly some good news in that soon, the picture may clear up nicely and a very good opportunity to catch a wave 3 0f 3 type movement may be upcoming. Just gotta be PATIENT!

WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW - More Consolidation?
What you see in the main chart above is that what my wave count is telling me is that wave iii             of v has already started after a very complex wave ii. Yes, prices are now AGAIN bumping its head on a solid resistance level that confined wave ii (that being the BAMM line of the POTENTIAL bat pattern seen on the Daily chart ) and some may see that as a sign that still more downside consolidation is forthcoming. Well, yes and no. Yes in the sense that I also think prices will again bounce off that resistance and decline BUT not as part of the previous consolidation but as part of a wave 2 of iii             retracement. On the chart above, I show that wave iii             has started and the recent leg up was wave 1 of that wave iii             . That means that the current possible down move will be short-lived as a wave 2 of iii             . After which of course may be the much-anticipated wave 3 of iii             . I have identified a POTENTIAL bullish Gartley with one D point at the .786 and the other at .886. If prices do fall and complete the Gartley , that may mark the end of the wave 2 of iii             and mark the start of wave 3 of iii             .

However, should prices advance and continue higher from here breaking the high of wave 1 and subsequently breaking the resistance at the BAMM line of the bat, that will be a sure sign that wave 3 of iii             is underway and we will see significantly higher prices.

OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart
snapshot

WEEKLY CHART - Breaking Down Wave (C)
Wave (C) of the ABC corrective wave shown in the above monthly chart is underway. Prices are now in wave (2) of the expected 5 waves of wave (C). In that wave (2), it is unfolding probably as a BC             zigzag pattern that will take prices sharply higher to retrace the wave (1). Within that ABC zigzag wave (2), wave (c) has probably already started. There is also a POTENTIAL bearish shark pattern whose D point may represent the ending of the wave (c). It's D point is well within the "Goldilocks Reversal Zone" as well which is the probable area where prices may retrace wave (1) and reverse from there.
snapshot

DAILY CHART - How The Current Correction Up Is Unfolding
The larger wave (2) shown on the weekly chart (green) above is probably unfolding in a ABC 5-3-5 zigzag pattern with prices now in the 5-wave (c) wave and most likely already starting wave iii             of v..
snapshot

4HR CHART - Wave ii May Have Finished And Wave iii             Begun
The wave ii unfolded in a VERY complex abc pattern with 2 expanding triangle patterns. This kind of correction is extremely difficult to see and probably confused A LOT of traders (including myself) as to what was happening! But thankfully, it may be over and the ensuing wave iii             of v may have begun.
snapshot

CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
Nothing much to say here. I'm just waiting to see how things unfold before I jump into any new trade. Two things I will look for: 1. prices to break through the BAMM line (which is also a MAJOR SR Level) in which case I will then look for a good chance to get LONG or 2. prices to complete the Gartley and then I will get LONG.
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Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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Reply
Hi,
Thanks for sharing,
my count matches yours, just one thing maybe you need to consider the last leg up (wave 1 of wave 3) up is a leading diagonal 5,3,5,3,5, we had a normal wave 1 and wave three (non extended), statistics wise there is a tendency to have extended wave 5 before 2 starts, please let me know what you think,
snapshot

Regards
Reply
EverythingForex PRO NidalDarawsheh
a year ago
It's always a possibility. I don't see it as a leading diagonal as they don't occur that often in a wave 1. Wave counts as you know are very subjective and subject to the eye of the beholder. But overall, it really doesn't matter whether it's a leading diagonal or not. The direction is up in my count and yours. Not important that the wave count be "correct" as long as it leads you in the "right" direction. Unless you are trying to trade each subwave. Which I'm not.

Thanks for the comment and alternate POV. GL!
Reply
meganjack
a year ago
GBPUSD Short
Reply
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