GBPUSD - Long-term short

FX_IDC:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
My thinking is as follows:
1- GBPUSD over bought at current levels
2- 0.786 retracement level = 1.4353
3- Currently finding resistance at previous support levels
4- The chart pattern does look like a head & shoulder on the longer term
5- 200 Week MA = 1.437
6- The potential wave counts illustrated supports a down turn into a lower low in 12 to 18 months

In the short-term it could head for 1.445 to 1.45 but my view is that in the next few weeks it should start heading down.

Below an inverse view of the pair - USDGBP , which sometimes gives me a different perspective or confirmation on my views.

Comment: Below a view of two outcomes of the next move on the 4HR chart
gbp wont go short in this week i think
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