GBP/USD - British Pound US Dollar Strong Bullish after FOMC
The U.S. dollar edged higher in early trade Wednesday, boosted by sticky inflation ahead of the latest Fed meeting, while sterling is hit by weak growth numbers.
In Europe, GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2523 after data showed that Britain's economy shrank in October, with gross domestic product falling 0.3% from September, the first month-on-month drop since July.
The Office for National Statistics stated that exceptionally wet weather might have impacted the data, but this release raises the prospect of a recession and lifts the pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates next year even with inflation still above target.
Now, at 17:22 Dec. 13Th 2023 i HAVE STRONG BULLISH SIGNAL
I hae explaiend on the chart, where I have sold and bought GBP,where I have taen profit, reduced or added aggressively my positions
Trend Bullish
Technical Summary
Type
5 Min
15 Min
Hourly
Daily
Monthly
Moving Averages
Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Technical Indicators
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Summary
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Prev. Close
1.2618
Bid
1.2615
Day's Range
1.2614-1.2623
Open
1.2616
Ask
1.2624
52 wk Range
1.1803-1.3146
1-Year Change
2.35%
In Europe, GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2523 after data showed that Britain's economy shrank in October, with gross domestic product falling 0.3% from September, the first month-on-month drop since July.
The Office for National Statistics stated that exceptionally wet weather might have impacted the data, but this release raises the prospect of a recession and lifts the pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates next year even with inflation still above target.
Now, at 17:22 Dec. 13Th 2023 i HAVE STRONG BULLISH SIGNAL
I hae explaiend on the chart, where I have sold and bought GBP,where I have taen profit, reduced or added aggressively my positions
Trend Bullish
Technical Summary
Type
5 Min
15 Min
Hourly
Daily
Monthly
Moving Averages
Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Technical Indicators
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Summary
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Prev. Close
1.2618
Bid
1.2615
Day's Range
1.2614-1.2623
Open
1.2616
Ask
1.2624
52 wk Range
1.1803-1.3146
1-Year Change
2.35%
Comment:
Pivot Points
S3 1.25813
S2 1.26379
S1 1.26731
R1 1.27297
R2 1.27511
R3 1.28077
P 1.26945
S3 1.25813
S2 1.26379
S1 1.26731
R1 1.27297
R2 1.27511
R3 1.28077
P 1.26945
Comment:
BoE monetary policy left unchanged, 3 members vote for a 25bp hike.
Fed’s dovish pivot sends global bond yields slumping to multi-month lows.
Fed’s dovish pivot sends global bond yields slumping to multi-month lows.
Comment:
BoE Governor Bailey continued to press forward the central bank’s case that UK inflation was still too high and that rates would be hiked if needed, and that the current restrictive policy would likely be needed for an extended period of time.
Governor Bailey’s hawkish stance is in stark contrast to last night’s FOMC outcome where Fed Chair Powell left the market in no doubt that the US central bank will cut rates in 2024. The Fed’s prediction of three 25 basis points cuts next year however is in sharp contrast to current market pricing that sees a total of 150 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 with the first quarter-point cut seen at the March FOMC meeting.
Current UK rate forecasts differ from the Bank of England’s hawkish view with the first 25bp rate cut set to be announced at the March BoE meeting with a total of 113bps of cuts seen in 2024.
Governor Bailey’s hawkish stance is in stark contrast to last night’s FOMC outcome where Fed Chair Powell left the market in no doubt that the US central bank will cut rates in 2024. The Fed’s prediction of three 25 basis points cuts next year however is in sharp contrast to current market pricing that sees a total of 150 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 with the first quarter-point cut seen at the March FOMC meeting.
Current UK rate forecasts differ from the Bank of England’s hawkish view with the first 25bp rate cut set to be announced at the March BoE meeting with a total of 113bps of cuts seen in 2024.
Comment:
Cable picked up further after today’s announcement and tested 1.2700 against the US dollar. The US dollar is weak today after last night’s FOMC meeting and cable may well test the November 29 high at 1.2733 in the near term. A break above here would see the pair back at levels last traded at the end of August.
Comment:
GBP/USD retail trade data shows 49.23% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.03 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 8.40% lower than yesterday and 11.30% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.09% higher than yesterday and 5.46% lower than last week.
Comment:
GBP/USD climbed and pushed past resistance at 1.2590 on Wednesday after bouncing off trendline support near 1.2500, with the advance reinforced by the broader U.S. dollar downturn. If the pair manages to hold onto recent gains and consolidates to the upside little by little, we could soon see a retest of 1.2720 level, the 61.8% Fib of the July/October retracement. Further up, all eyes will be on 1.2800.
On the other hand, if sellers return and trigger a bearish reversal, initial support appears at 1.2590, followed by 1.2500, near the 200-day simple moving average. Looking lower, the focus turns to 1.2455. Cable is likely to stabilize in this region on a pullback before mounting a possible comeback, but in the event of a breakdown, a move down to 1.2340 becomes a plausible scenario.
On the other hand, if sellers return and trigger a bearish reversal, initial support appears at 1.2590, followed by 1.2500, near the 200-day simple moving average. Looking lower, the focus turns to 1.2455. Cable is likely to stabilize in this region on a pullback before mounting a possible comeback, but in the event of a breakdown, a move down to 1.2340 becomes a plausible scenario.
Comment:
gdp down
unemplyoment claims up
bullish
bought at 1.26829
Trend trading no PT
unemplyoment claims up
bullish
bought at 1.26829
Trend trading no PT
Comment:
. Investors are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will face faster, deeper rate cuts, with money market expectations running far ahead of the Fed’s own rate expectations for 2024.
Comment:
The dollar index fell on Tuesday and the euro hit a more than four-month high as investors waited on fresh clues to when the Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates as inflation falls closer to the U.S. central bank’s 2% annual target.
Volumes were muted the day after Christmas, however, as markets in the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong, among others, were still out for a public holiday. Many traders globally are also out for holidays until the New Year.
The greenback is on track to post its worst performance since 2020 against a basket of currencies as anticipation of Fed rate cuts dents the appeal of the U.S. currency relative to peers.
Volumes were muted the day after Christmas, however, as markets in the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong, among others, were still out for a public holiday. Many traders globally are also out for holidays until the New Year.
The greenback is on track to post its worst performance since 2020 against a basket of currencies as anticipation of Fed rate cuts dents the appeal of the U.S. currency relative to peers.
Comment:
If inflation falls much faster than the Fed’s benchmark rate it can tighten monetary conditions more than Fed policymakers intend and increase the risk of a hard economic landing.
Comment:
However they pushed back against a cut coming as soon as March and disagreed with market pricing of 154 bps in easing by December, noting that this is "unlikely to be necessary unless the economy were to fall into a recession in coming months."
Data on Friday showed U.S. prices fell in November for the first in more than 3-1/2 years, pushing the annual increase in inflation further below 3%.
Data on Friday showed U.S. prices fell in November for the first in more than 3-1/2 years, pushing the annual increase in inflation further below 3%.
Comment:
With U.S. yields displaying a downward bias and a strong risk-on sentiment prevailing in equity markets, the U.S. dollar is likely to extend its decline in the short term. This could potentially lead to increased gains for gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD moving into the new year.
Comment:
Trend UP SELL more USD
Dollar tentative as investors await Fed Dollar tentative as investors await Fed minutes
Gold firms on Fed rate-cut hopes; US data in focus
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the Federal Reserve, while investors look forward to a slew of economic data this week for more clarity on the U.S. rate outlook.
Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of rate cuts from the Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Also on the radar, data on U.S. job openings and December non-farm payrolls will also been keenly watched for more clarity on Fed rate path.
Dollar tentative as investors await Fed Dollar tentative as investors await Fed minutes
Gold firms on Fed rate-cut hopes; US data in focus
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the Federal Reserve, while investors look forward to a slew of economic data this week for more clarity on the U.S. rate outlook.
Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of rate cuts from the Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Also on the radar, data on U.S. job openings and December non-farm payrolls will also been keenly watched for more clarity on Fed rate path.
Comment:
ALL Positions hedged short asia session
Comment:
Daily Global Market Update
The Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.
Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.
Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.
US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
The Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.
Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.
Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.
US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
Comment:
Among majors is GBP the only major which turned back and continues its bullish trend
Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the second straight month in December, data showed on Tuesday, taking some pressure off the central bank to rush into exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. The Tokyo inflation data, closely watched as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, is among key factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinise at the next policy-setting meeting on Jan. 22-23. Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in December from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast.
US dollar pulls back
The trend is still bullish, I see no reason yet to cut or hedge the longs(This is no recoammandation, so please do not copy my trades, as I write them here also for myown documentations!!!!! And always use stops, and sticktoyour own tradding strateies, as neither me nor others here are Moneyy and fundmanagers, who are allowed to give anyy trading advices nor we are in a CFTC authorities list. We just share our trading ideas, whatfor we tae respnossibility only. But not for your trades!!!) Also Fed’s Bowman Backs Eventual Rate Cuts If Inflation Falls Further
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation could fall toward the Fed’s 2% target with interest rates held at current levels, and offered potential backing for lowering borrowing costs if price pressures fade. “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2% goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said in prepared remarks to the South Carolina Bankers Association in Columbia. “We are not yet at that point,” she said, adding that she remains cautious with upside risks to ..
Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the second straight month in December, data showed on Tuesday, taking some pressure off the central bank to rush into exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. The Tokyo inflation data, closely watched as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, is among key factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinise at the next policy-setting meeting on Jan. 22-23. Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in December from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast.
US dollar pulls back
The trend is still bullish, I see no reason yet to cut or hedge the longs(This is no recoammandation, so please do not copy my trades, as I write them here also for myown documentations!!!!! And always use stops, and sticktoyour own tradding strateies, as neither me nor others here are Moneyy and fundmanagers, who are allowed to give anyy trading advices nor we are in a CFTC authorities list. We just share our trading ideas, whatfor we tae respnossibility only. But not for your trades!!!) Also Fed’s Bowman Backs Eventual Rate Cuts If Inflation Falls Further
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation could fall toward the Fed’s 2% target with interest rates held at current levels, and offered potential backing for lowering borrowing costs if price pressures fade. “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2% goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said in prepared remarks to the South Carolina Bankers Association in Columbia. “We are not yet at that point,” she said, adding that she remains cautious with upside risks to ..
S3 1.20368
S2 1.20689
S1 1.22651
R1 1.27327
R2 1.27327
R3 1.31418