GBP/USD: Bullish Scenario

OANDA:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
Fundamental Analysis:
GBPUSD currency pair reveals some interesting contrasts between the United Kingdom and the United States. The UK has a notably higher inflation rate of 6.7% compared to the US rate of 3.7%, which could put downward pressure on the GBP. In terms of GDP growth, the UK lags behind with a 0.4% annual rate, while the US shows more robust growth at 2.6%. Interest rates are fairly close, with the UK at 5.25% and the US at 5.5%, suggesting that neither currency has a distinct advantage in attracting foreign capital based on interest rates alone. The trade balance shows both countries running a deficit, but the UK's deficit as a percentage of GDP is higher, which could weaken the GBP. Unemployment rates are relatively low in both countries, but slightly lower in the US at 3.8% compared to the UK's 4.3%, indicating a slightly stronger labor market in the US. Lastly, consumer confidence is markedly lower in the UK with a score of -21, compared to the US score of 67.7, which could impact domestic spending and ultimately influence the currency pair. Overall, these indicators suggest that the USD may have a slight fundamental edge over the GBP in the near term.

Technical Analysis :
A strong bearish structure often indicates a prevailing downtrend, which seems to be the case for GBP/USD as you've observed. If you're anticipating a retracement, it's crucial to identify key resistance levels where the price might reverse temporarily before continuing its downward trajectory. Your target for the retracement and the eventual decline to around 1.18 suggests you're looking for a "sell on rise" opportunity. Combining this with the fundamental analysis, which indicates a slight edge for the USD, your bearish outlook appears to be supported from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Just remember to use risk management strategies like stop-loss orders to protect your position, especially since forex markets can be highly volatile.

Targets:1.23, 1.24, 1.24700


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