This is a break down analysis of the GBPUSD ahead of next Thursday's (January 30th) Bank of England (Boe) Interest Rate Decision.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Starting with today, the U.K. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 49.8 in January (9-month high), while the Services PMI rose to 52.9 (16-month high). Both did little to keep the pair near the two-week high as investors weigh more next week's BoE monetary policy decision.
- The forecast for the BoE Interest Rate Decision is steady at +0.75%. If the actual reading matches this forecast there is a 66.7% chance of a bullish trend in the next 2 days based on the last 12 BoE events.
Technical Analysis:
- The trend on the 1D chart is neutral with all major indicators flat in the grey zone, RSI at 50.019, STOCH at 53.08, ADX at 17.289, MACD at 0.001. This is because GBPUSD is ranged inside a Descending Triangle with 1.2945 as the Support.
- The MA50 is supporting today.
- Descending trend on the RSI as well. There is no divergence.
All the above indicate that the pair will most likely continue the bearish trend on the long term (if 1.2945 breaks) eyeing the 1.2770 and 1.2550 Support levels in extension. However the BoE Decision can have a temporary bullish effect before the downtrend starts, similar to what took place in April/ May 2019.
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Fundamental Analysis:
- Starting with today, the U.K. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 49.8 in January (9-month high), while the Services PMI rose to 52.9 (16-month high). Both did little to keep the pair near the two-week high as investors weigh more next week's BoE monetary policy decision.
- The forecast for the BoE Interest Rate Decision is steady at +0.75%. If the actual reading matches this forecast there is a 66.7% chance of a bullish trend in the next 2 days based on the last 12 BoE events.
Technical Analysis:
- The trend on the 1D chart is neutral with all major indicators flat in the grey zone, RSI at 50.019, STOCH at 53.08, ADX at 17.289, MACD at 0.001. This is because GBPUSD is ranged inside a Descending Triangle with 1.2945 as the Support.
- The MA50 is supporting today.
- Descending trend on the RSI as well. There is no divergence.
All the above indicate that the pair will most likely continue the bearish trend on the long term (if 1.2945 breaks) eyeing the 1.2770 and 1.2550 Support levels in extension. However the BoE Decision can have a temporary bullish effect before the downtrend starts, similar to what took place in April/ May 2019.
If you like this idea give us a like, follow and share your thoughts in the comments section below. Remember to stay tuned for future technical analysis , news, updates, and more from PrimeXBT!