ridethepig
Short

ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.07.02

FOREXCOM:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
๐Ÿ“Œ The affinity between 'resistance' and 'overextension'

Light and summery flows continue with GBP in purely technical moves.

Very little to update on the fundamental here; a weak macro and political picture persists as activity remains incredibly low in the absence of confidence. Thereโ€™s a lot of support stacked on the 0.90 ๐Ÿ”‘ pivot in EURGBP and 1.252x in GBPUSD . Reassessment only required with a weekly closing below/above.

=> Restraint in the technical sense can be conceived with the presence of resistance; but real total defence which reigns over the whole G10 board and which gives FX markets breathing difficulties, is only possible when risk is in the air. Parking in USD will remain attractive as long as the VIX remains elevated.

=> From a risk perspective, to what extent, we may now ask, does one need to give their stop breathing room? It is not enough to state the highs will hold as NFP can easily capture the stops and will be highly unpleasant to defend. This means we need to give some room up towards 1.258x as we will have the 1.25 quarters and halves to protect.

โšก๏ธ US DATA PREVIEW: Primary Dealer Nonfarm Payroll estimates

- RBC 8.0mn - Natwest 7.2mn
- Citi 5.5mn - Morgan Stanley 5.285mn
- BNP Paribas 4.5mn - Goldman Sachs 4.25mn
- HSBC 4.0mn - Scotiabank 4.0mn
- TD 4.0mn - SocGen 3.9mn
- BMO 3.5mn - Wells Fargo 3.3mn
- Credit Suisse 3.0mn - JPMorgan 3.0mn
- BAML 2.8mn - Daiwa 2.5mn
- Deutsche 2.5mn - Mizuho 2.5mn
- Barclays 2.0mn - Jefferies 1.95mn
- Nomura 1.5mn - UBS 1.5mn
- Dealer Median: 3.4mn

With this in mind, 3m is the headline to track.... undershoots will be positive for USD via risk whereas inline or overshoots will trigger profit taking from the recent squeeze. The ST flows in a technical sense are no less imaginative than the MT and LT swing we traded earlier in the year.


As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming ๐Ÿ‘ or ๐Ÿ‘Ž
Comment: ๐Ÿ“ It's time to start trailing stops for those holding shorts.
Trade closed: target reached: ...and I will take that one!

Clearing first targets after reaching 1.243x ... well done bears.
Comment: A quick update here for those tracking the entire swing:

๐Ÿ“Twitter: https://twitter.com/ridepigs

๐Ÿ“Telegram: https://t.me/ridethepig

Comments

I think that GBP market is going to turn and a strong up-trend will be revealed Looking at Weekly RSI i see bullish divergence and Monthly Macd shows me that the price can rally quite well in the next months
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thanks
my idead
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Nice trade @DrXoX
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Also got into this trade, looks like you've hit it to a tee. Well done!
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ridethepig GallowMA
Very good to hear @GallowMA ... hopefully we can complete the move before entering into a tight range for the holiday weekend.
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interesting
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ridethepig romaapetraas
Thanks @romaapetraas, lets see how it goes..
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