The UK Won’t Sign the Divorce Papers, Pound Will Suffer

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
An April 12th deadline is now looming above the heads of Europeans and the British as the UK find themselves situated as the estranged husband who refuses to sign the divorce papers. Right now there are six main scenarios:

1)Revoking Article 50 and cancelling Brexit
2)Another referendum
3)May’s deal plus a customs union
4)May’s deal plus both a customs union and single market access
5)A Canadian-style free trade agreement
6)Leaving the EU without a deal

Beyond these six main scenarios, there are subplots being played out primarily including the 1 million person strong march over the weekend and most scandalously the claims that some members of May’s government are making a play against May to become Prime Minister.

Meanwhile with the pound against the dollar, the currency pair endured the dreaded ‘death cross’ last week where the 50 day moving average crossed over the 200 day moving average indicating a technical signal for a downtrend. Overall, daily technicals like moving averages suggest we are trending up. This is the case. However, this currency pair HAS NOT priced in the chance of a no deal Brexit. This will be to the detriment of traders just looking at technicals despite how important they may be.

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