Akil_Stokes
Short

GBPUSD: Structure Short Opportunity on the GBPUSD 1 Hour

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
10 months ago
Similar to yesterday's $EURUSD trade, I'm simply looking at a potential shorting opportunity as price action works it way back towards previous structure resistance.

Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst & Head Trading Coach
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10 months ago
Order cancelled: Break and close above = invalid move for shorts
Akil Stokes -Head FOREX Trading Coach at Trade Empowered
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jackmyattFX PRO
10 months ago
I was just about to post something almost exactly the same as this....nice analysis mate....enjoying your warroom too thought I'd give it a try :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP jackmyattFX
10 months ago
Thanks Jack, I think no matter what level you get to in your trading, it's always good that have that morning pep talk (or halftime speech for some) to get you through the day. It's a like a coach talking to his team before the game
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jackmyattFX PRO Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
Exactly the pep talk. Really enjoying it mate!!!
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Stink
10 months ago
Morning Akil hope your well! Ive been watching this on the weekly time frame and feel over the longer period there is a potential to see a rise over the coming weeks.

Agree with your set up above can see we have hit that resitance level and most likely will see a pull back.

Do you ever trade the longer time frames? I guess it comes down to waht your tradign plan is and if your going for a quick in and out trade.

also enjoyed you video last night on youtube! Kepp up the good work, have a great day
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Stink
10 months ago
Thanks Stink, the 4 hour charts are the highest that I'll go for my trading. I have nothing against longer-term trading (i used to do that a lot in my investing days) but now I'd much rather not be in a position more than a week so i like to get in and out.
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SubTh3ory
10 months ago
Is this based purely off of structure resistance and Fibonacci retracement?
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP SubTh3ory
10 months ago
Correct only price action and fibonacci tools used in the analysis
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SubTh3ory
10 months ago
Akil, do you know what's causing some of these pairs to behave oddly like this, going against usual price action behavior?
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Lanmar PRO SubTh3ory
10 months ago
Welcome to the market ;)
+3 Reply
SubTh3ory Lanmar
10 months ago
No, that's the problem. If this is usual for the market, then why would I trade Price Action?
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Lanmar PRO SubTh3ory
10 months ago
Breakouts are part of price action. Everything the market does is price action.
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SubTh3ory Lanmar
10 months ago
I don't think you understand what I am saying.
I know that Price Action is simply what the market is doing, but when it comes to breakouts, as you mentioned, you're supposed to trade with the direction of the breakout. Except here and other places as well, there was a bearish breakout of 1.4225 and though that would normally signal a bearish bias - price went the opposite direction.
I figured there must be something else going on causing price to behave oddly.
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO SubTh3ory
10 months ago
It must be the secret market manipulators! They should let us know before there's any shift in an instrument.
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SubTh3ory Lanmar
10 months ago
Don't answer my question if your intentions are to be sarcastic.
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Lanmar PRO SubTh3ory
10 months ago
See, you clearly find what I said to be ridiculous. The market often behaves counter to your expectations and against your strategy, whether its pure price action or fundamentally based. Get used to it if you want to win. Cheers.
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GeneraldisastersInc SubTh3ory
10 months ago
I think Lanmar had perfect reason to be sarcastic... The markets are not perfect, these things happen because whichever news is hot like oil. Just normally they happen less than 50% of the time, which is why you can make a profit over time.
+2 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP GeneraldisastersInc
10 months ago
I agree, what matters most is how your trading performs over the long run. There will be strange moves from time to time that affect your trading. Sometimes for good and sometimes for bad. But these moves also occurred in the data set that you used for your backtesting therefore you should have confidence that in the long run they won't even make a difference
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SubTh3ory GeneraldisastersInc
10 months ago
I simply don't respond well to sarcasm as that does nothing to actually help me understand the answer to my question. Some people, perhaps like yourself, enjoy sarcasm. It's a language to them. To myself, it's an irritation.
In any case, what you said here makes a lot of sense. It's clear and to the point. Thank you.
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Akil_Stokes TOP SubTh3ory
10 months ago
Don't get me wrong I was waiting for a short opportunity all morning, thinking it was a great opportunity. The market just didn't give ti to me. If I had to predict on a bullish or bearish move at this level, I would predict bearish 100 out of 100 times. it just didn't happen this time. Not sure what was driving the markets this morning as there was no real news out. Sometimes we just don't know the why
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shuamo SubTh3ory
10 months ago
If you want to know a WHY? answer is China and the changing to risk-on risk-off and viceversa But in technicals analysis you don't need a why. Talking breakouts? That movement isn't one.
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Akil_Stokes TOP SubTh3ory
10 months ago
for a counter trend trader this may have been an unexpected move, however for a breakout trader (and we had a few catch winners on this in the live room this morning) it's nothing more than a winning trade. There's always a winner and a loser in the markets.
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Akil_Stokes TOP Lanmar
10 months ago
It sound harsh but I agree. This is trading. it's not always pretty. Remember "good" and "bad" trades are very different that "profitable" and "nonprofitable"
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Akil_Stokes TOP SubTh3ory
10 months ago
We're at a very interesting economic time and there's a lot of "fear" in the markets. Earlier in the year we had the China situation and on Thursday we saw the ECB press conference move the market and then correct itself. I wouldn't say that price action is unusual as of late, in general the market will do whatever it wants to do, whenever it wants to do it. As traders are job is to put ourselves in a position where we can take advantage of what we deem to be the best possible trading opportunities while conserving the greatest amount of capital
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SubTh3ory Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
Thanks, Akil. I'm attempting to get accustomed to the flow of the market. So when things go so strongly against structure levels, I get confused and want to know why that is happening to take note of this for later.
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Akil_Stokes TOP SubTh3ory
10 months ago
No problem, just remember that everything we do is an educated guess and that we have no control over the markets. So if something doesn't follow your prediction, don't take it personally. Many of the worlds best traders are on 50% correct if that helps
+2 Reply
OfficialN8smith
10 months ago
Akil, I am fairly new to the markets but last week I noticed that the markets opened up at very different prices than the close for the week. My question is if this trade would have stayed vaild or was in the green would you have liquidated this trade and taken profits prior to the close of the week?
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP OfficialN8smith
10 months ago
Every once in a while there will be gaps in the markets. Because FOREX is a 24/5 market 99% of the time they will only occur on the weekend. Although "big" gaps are rare as a swing trader, i will hold my positions over the weekend. Because of the time ti takes for certain trades to complete it can be very hard to consistently see out a full trade if you're liquidating at the end of each week. Unless you plan on catching the open and entering right again
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OfficialN8smith Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
Thanks Akil!
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izzuddinahmad
10 months ago
Hello akil,
I have a problem that i cant seem to solved it. I hope you can share your thoughts on this, so here goes.
How can we manage our money inside our account?
Meaning that, for example our risk reward ratio is 1:2
That is good enough right?
but what about the pips?
let say out of 10 we lose 4, even though the ratio is right which is 1:2 but different trade gives you a different pip value. So if we win 6 trades with a TP 60pips and a SL 30pips we would have 360pips profit but if the ones we lost which is 4 lost but with a TP 400pips and a SL 200pips that would mean we lose about 800pips. At the end of the day, even if our risk reward ratio is right and we have won 6 out of 10 trades but still the pips plays a significant role in our money management because we would have lost about 440pips even thou we won 6 trades out of 10 trades.
Again, my question would be how do we manage this pips problem?
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP izzuddinahmad
10 months ago
You should have a consistent timeframe that you execute your trades from. If this is the case you shouldn't have that type of massive differential in your stops and targets. Bouncing around from different timeframes
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izzuddinahmad Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
Thank you master akil..really appreaciated it
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vduquenne
10 months ago
Hi Akil, there is a new NSH as price action broke by a few pips the former top there's with what learned from you guys an: invalid double top as a consequens.We retraced to T1 & T2 and potentially a thrid up move could harmonically happen (AB=CD=EF in magenta lines). Are my thought sequence andconclusion and conclusion faulty here; please correct me dear mentor ;)
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Akil_Stokes TOP vduquenne
10 months ago
An extension up is certainly a possibility. I also would be shocked if this ended up being a false break
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Akil_Stokes TOP Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
*wouldn't
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vduquenne Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
First of all dear Akil , tnx for your reply! Really appreciated ;) But here's the thing now : you agree with both scenario's and now comes the ever up-coming question in my small brain ... Iearn day in day out to trade the plan with all your set of rules and discipline. What to do now ? Stay on the sideline because there are two valid scenario's and waiting until there's is only valid scenario valid... or engegage the two scenario's . Right now I see a valid double bottom wich does not invalidate my long scenario. Maybe you'll the me : Vince, as long as you have valid plan, just do it ... ;) Cheers , mate and thanx for all your training courses , video's and educated guesses. Even with a plan , it is still to decide, it's still difficult for me.
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Akil_Stokes TOP vduquenne
10 months ago
It's simple, you stick to your plan and execute the trade when your rules are met. If you have a situation where you're getting a buy and a selling signal at the same exact time my recommendation would be to revise your rules and add filters for when to take the buy and when to take the sell. If you're plan is solid there should be "zero" decision to make aside from following the rules. If you haven't already please fill out this trader assessment, I bet there are some holes in the plan that you may not be seeing http://tradeempowered.com/trader-assessment/
+1 Reply
vduquenne Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
Hi Akil, as proposed by you, I now did the full assessment and I am thrilled as I will have contact with Charles coming Monday : Happy ;) This said , your short view occured, bravo ! I took long, as you know, and I sticked to my plan and did not change it this time, being in the trade. Even not while being in the red area of my trade. Hoping to be rewarded in coming hours . . . Thanx for your advice , mentor ;)
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vduquenne vduquenne
10 months ago
Just got sopped out ... account not broken ! Next time betta ;)
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Akil_Stokes TOP vduquenne
10 months ago
Glad the assessment was able to help you see where some of your struggle areas were. Charles does a great job in his evaluation. Please let me know how it goes.
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NR
10 months ago
Hi Akil can you please do a periscope on risk:reward pleaseeeeee? I really want to know if someone can be profitable with a 1:1 or a lower reward to risk strategy? Thanks :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP NR
10 months ago
I've talked about risk reward in many of my youtube videos. And yes you can be profitable with an average risk/reward of 1:1 you would have to have a win percentage of >51%
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vduquenne Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
Hereby exactly why I FILLED in the assessment yesterday; my plan was right but got thrown out because of my own stop-loss ! 2 hours later I (would have) reached my pre-defined T1 & T2. NOW that is very frustrating and yes then one can get emotional, even when one doesn't lose alot of points, pips, dollars :( So what to do for stop-losses ???? 1 x ATR7 or 2 x ATR7 or 1 x ATR14 (like I see in Jason's graphs) or is the 113% Fibo Level or just 10 pips above the anchor leg... Hereby the pic of what happened encircled in red. Vincent.
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Akil_Stokes TOP vduquenne
10 months ago
Easy answer to that stop/loss question but i won't ruin the surprise for you. Charles will certainly see that as an area that needs improvement and will have a simple solution for you when he reviews your assessment with you.
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vduquenne Akil_Stokes
10 months ago
Thanks Akil for all your replies in this trip ;) Can't wait to talk to Charles ... C'ya soon , greetz, Vince.
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