GOLD CRASH AGAIN!! PART 4: 1690, THE REAL KISS OF DEATH!
Hello again.
If you have been following, this is part 4 in my GC analysis. My proprietary Infinite Volume Oscillator (IVO) found huge volume discrepancies by looking at the next front contract GC2! as opposed to GC1! and XAUUSD by OANDA or ICE.
This is what it is showing next. Again, I will write continuous updates as we go.
If you have been following, this is part 4 in my GC analysis. My proprietary Infinite Volume Oscillator (IVO) found huge volume discrepancies by looking at the next front contract GC2! as opposed to GC1! and XAUUSD by OANDA or ICE.
This is what it is showing next. Again, I will write continuous updates as we go.
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UPDATE: PLEASE CLICK LIKE IF YOU FOLLOW THIS SERIES!!
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UPDATE: TUES, 4:10 PM CT.
SOME SUPPORTING EVIDENCE: This what IVO is showing for GDXJ.
SOME SUPPORTING EVIDENCE: This what IVO is showing for GDXJ.
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MORE EVIDENCE: GC2! v. GC1! v. XAUUSD (OANDA) v. XAUUSD (ICE)
The big explosion in next contract implies... what exactly? After carefully considering all these charts including GLD, GDX, GDXJ, XAU, SI1!, SLV, I'm seeing a drawdown after the next test of 1690 (GC, for XAUUSD, probably 1630). After test of 1420 going down, it's all the way back up for the entire precious metals complex. We are talking June bottom, July spike. September new all time highs for gold prices.
The big explosion in next contract implies... what exactly? After carefully considering all these charts including GLD, GDX, GDXJ, XAU, SI1!, SLV, I'm seeing a drawdown after the next test of 1690 (GC, for XAUUSD, probably 1630). After test of 1420 going down, it's all the way back up for the entire precious metals complex. We are talking June bottom, July spike. September new all time highs for gold prices.
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Please take the previous comments with 2 jars of salt. Thats more of an outline.
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UPDATE: WED 10:10 AM CT.
Nice double bottom this morning. GDXJ looks like it wants to go to 38.50 this Friday.
Nice double bottom this morning. GDXJ looks like it wants to go to 38.50 this Friday.
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CRITICAL UPDATE: WED 12:40 PM CT.
We are at a decisive juncture for this thesis. We want to see real buyers show up in the next 140 min before markets close. Otherwise the picture becomes a real directionless mess in the very near term ala 72 hours.
We are at a decisive juncture for this thesis. We want to see real buyers show up in the next 140 min before markets close. Otherwise the picture becomes a real directionless mess in the very near term ala 72 hours.
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CRITICAL UPDATE: WED 12:55 PM CT.
FWIW, I am seeing the pickup in GC2! again. A little bit more in XAUUSD from ICE.
FWIW, I am seeing the pickup in GC2! again. A little bit more in XAUUSD from ICE.
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CRITICAL UPDATE: WED 2:35 PM CT.
JUST CLOSED MY GDXJ CALLS FROM YESTERDAY. DON'T HAVE CONVICTION ANYMORE.
That said, I still think it will hit 32 on Friday. Just want to derisk and reposition at the close with GLD CALLS.
JUST CLOSED MY GDXJ CALLS FROM YESTERDAY. DON'T HAVE CONVICTION ANYMORE.
That said, I still think it will hit 32 on Friday. Just want to derisk and reposition at the close with GLD CALLS.
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UPDATE: WED 3:43 PM CT.
TRADING THE HIGH ON FRIDAY
My status changed to GLD to 4/2 instead of GDXJ to 4/3. I want to end the trade Thursday afternoon bc I don't want to to trade Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls repo. This morning 9 AM, the ADP report is implied that the job cuts will not reflect in
Friday's numbers but next month's numbers. I saw this morning's action reflect in a "PATTERN OF HESITATION". Yet the high still looks like Friday, but it might come at like 3 hours before market open, which is moot if you dont have 24 hour acct.
TRADING THE HIGH ON FRIDAY
My status changed to GLD to 4/2 instead of GDXJ to 4/3. I want to end the trade Thursday afternoon bc I don't want to to trade Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls repo. This morning 9 AM, the ADP report is implied that the job cuts will not reflect in
Friday's numbers but next month's numbers. I saw this morning's action reflect in a "PATTERN OF HESITATION". Yet the high still looks like Friday, but it might come at like 3 hours before market open, which is moot if you dont have 24 hour acct.
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UPDATE: WED AFTERMARKET.
XAUUSD IVO comparison: interesting read.
This is my IVO code i keep talking about. I call it Infinite Volume Oscillator, but I think it should be called Volume Infinite-Oscillator instead. The reason is the "volume" is not infinite. It is the "oscillator" that is infinite. This is my theory on markets: it is forever changing like continuous evolution.
So this is a comparison between price action of 2 different days. If you notice to the left, when price exploded it was bc of "continuous buying" with little noticeable dips of selling. Whereas to the right you can see several dips of intermittent selling in between. This causes a much weaker rise in prices. However, if you add it all up, a significant number of orders went thru to build several layers of support underneath nonnetheless. This means even if it doesn't rocket up, it's not getting sold off for at least 2-3 days.
XAUUSD IVO comparison: interesting read.
This is my IVO code i keep talking about. I call it Infinite Volume Oscillator, but I think it should be called Volume Infinite-Oscillator instead. The reason is the "volume" is not infinite. It is the "oscillator" that is infinite. This is my theory on markets: it is forever changing like continuous evolution.
So this is a comparison between price action of 2 different days. If you notice to the left, when price exploded it was bc of "continuous buying" with little noticeable dips of selling. Whereas to the right you can see several dips of intermittent selling in between. This causes a much weaker rise in prices. However, if you add it all up, a significant number of orders went thru to build several layers of support underneath nonnetheless. This means even if it doesn't rocket up, it's not getting sold off for at least 2-3 days.
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CRITICAL UPDATE: WED 8:03 PM CT
REFRESHED MOMENTUM HAS CHANGED CEILINGS FOR THURSDAY. 1640 FOR GC AND 1615 FOR XAUUSD.
Longs should close Thursday. Shorts after NFP.
REFRESHED MOMENTUM HAS CHANGED CEILINGS FOR THURSDAY. 1640 FOR GC AND 1615 FOR XAUUSD.
Longs should close Thursday. Shorts after NFP.
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CLARIFICATION: If you have a 23 hour futures acct, holding Friday morning probably fine. Again, NFP is a coin flip, bc unless the number surprise to the upside a lot (which observers say will happen bc of COVID-19), the overriding downside momentum can crush the spike by U.S. open.
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CRITICAL UPDATE: THURS 7:45 AM CT, PREMARKET.
DESPITE THE SPIKE JUST NOW, PLEASE CONSIDER CLOSING LONGS BC IVO LOOKS TERRIBLE.
The spike just now totally expected to the unemployment claims just released. The volume differential in IVO looks terrible. Honestly I would tranche your way into shorts for next week. 2 tranches today, 2 tranches Friday.
DESPITE THE SPIKE JUST NOW, PLEASE CONSIDER CLOSING LONGS BC IVO LOOKS TERRIBLE.
The spike just now totally expected to the unemployment claims just released. The volume differential in IVO looks terrible. Honestly I would tranche your way into shorts for next week. 2 tranches today, 2 tranches Friday.
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UPDATE, THURS 8:41 AM CT.
I'm going do this in 7 tranches. My instincts are saying 4 today 3 tomorrow. For the record, my instincts have always been terrible. If I was you I would do 3 today 5 tomorrow (yes, that's 8).
I'm going do this in 7 tranches. My instincts are saying 4 today 3 tomorrow. For the record, my instincts have always been terrible. If I was you I would do 3 today 5 tomorrow (yes, that's 8).
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UPDATE, THURS 11:04 CT.
THE CEILING FOR NFP HAS CHANGED. 1667 FOR GC AND 1623 FOR XAUUSD. 9 AM CT FRIDAY MORNING.
Again my position is to build shorts, not trade longs to NFP for various reasons.
RECO GDXJ, SLV, GLD puts 4 week expiration at the money. Tranche it, buy the majority tomorrow.
THE CEILING FOR NFP HAS CHANGED. 1667 FOR GC AND 1623 FOR XAUUSD. 9 AM CT FRIDAY MORNING.
Again my position is to build shorts, not trade longs to NFP for various reasons.
RECO GDXJ, SLV, GLD puts 4 week expiration at the money. Tranche it, buy the majority tomorrow.
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UPDATE, THURS 12:48 PM CT.
NFP and GDXJ
If you trade NFP without real evidence, you are strictly gambling. Plus, things dont' react how they are supposed to a lot of the time. Let's say the street is expecting 12 % and unemployment comes out at 10%, is that really a beat? I've seen it played out so many ridiculous ways that the only way to win consistently is after the shenanigans.
HIGHLY HIGHLY RECOMMENDING GDXJ PUTS.
It looks like it's gonna die next week. It might not die tomorrow, so tranche it. Remember Good Friday is 4/10, so markets not opened. I really think we knock out of the park on Tuesday 4/07.
NFP and GDXJ
If you trade NFP without real evidence, you are strictly gambling. Plus, things dont' react how they are supposed to a lot of the time. Let's say the street is expecting 12 % and unemployment comes out at 10%, is that really a beat? I've seen it played out so many ridiculous ways that the only way to win consistently is after the shenanigans.
HIGHLY HIGHLY RECOMMENDING GDXJ PUTS.
It looks like it's gonna die next week. It might not die tomorrow, so tranche it. Remember Good Friday is 4/10, so markets not opened. I really think we knock out of the park on Tuesday 4/07.
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UPDATE, THURS 9:30 PM CT.
TIMELINE OF CURRENT SHORTS FOR GDXJ/SLV/GLD
Depending on what happens tomorrow morning between 7 AM - 8 AM, the current next wave down will finish on:
a) Tues open, likeliest if GC goes straight down from here without a fight
b) Tues close, I think this is the likeliest, especially if the NFP doesn't result in significant higher high, or if that high gets immediately crushed before 7:45 am
c) Wednesday open, this is more likely if both
TIMELINE OF CURRENT SHORTS FOR GDXJ/SLV/GLD
Depending on what happens tomorrow morning between 7 AM - 8 AM, the current next wave down will finish on:
a) Tues open, likeliest if GC goes straight down from here without a fight
b) Tues close, I think this is the likeliest, especially if the NFP doesn't result in significant higher high, or if that high gets immediately crushed before 7:45 am
c) Wednesday open, this is more likely if both
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... GC and XAUUSD have new highs that take all of Friday to drag down
I expect both GC and XAUUSD
I expect both GC and XAUUSD
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... to finish around 1425 Tues afternoon. With GDXJ around 15, and a new low for SLV.
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This is what I'm seeing.
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UPDATE, FRI, 6:53 PM, CT.
This is the lead into 7:45 ramp and rug pull. New ceiling for GC: 1653, for XAUUSD 1628.
This is the lead into 7:45 ramp and rug pull. New ceiling for GC: 1653, for XAUUSD 1628.
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TYPO ABOVE: 6:53 AM, NOT PM.
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UPDATE, FRI 8:21 AM, CT.
POST NFP. Looks good for shorts here as the pop was unconvincing, especially in GC, didn't even break 1650. It's all down from here, I expect GC to close today under 1595, and XAUUSD under 1585.
POST NFP. Looks good for shorts here as the pop was unconvincing, especially in GC, didn't even break 1650. It's all down from here, I expect GC to close today under 1595, and XAUUSD under 1585.
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UPDATE: FRI 10:23 AM, CT.
I saw GC made a new high, but IVO says its time is almost up.
I saw GC made a new high, but IVO says its time is almost up.
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UPDATE: FRI AFTERMARKET.
THIS IS HOW I DEFINE MOMENTUM.
The first chart has 3 screens. From right to left, 480 min, 160 min, and 54 min. This is an Illustration of different layers of regressions of price with IVO underneath as determinant of near term regression path.
THIS IS HOW I DEFINE MOMENTUM.
The first chart has 3 screens. From right to left, 480 min, 160 min, and 54 min. This is an Illustration of different layers of regressions of price with IVO underneath as determinant of near term regression path.
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The second chart is just the left screen (54 min) of the first chart.
If you see the two blue circles in IVO. It is saying that the current circle is EVEN WEAKER than the first circle. At the top you can see how the regressions play out and where the black arrow points at the bold black line is where price should be. There's also multiple bollinger bands, again one each one a higher series than the last.
If you see the two blue circles in IVO. It is saying that the current circle is EVEN WEAKER than the first circle. At the top you can see how the regressions play out and where the black arrow points at the bold black line is where price should be. There's also multiple bollinger bands, again one each one a higher series than the last.
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My next goal is figuring out a way to automate that.
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I forgot to point this out, but there four sets of bollinger bands correspond to each time period. For ex: on the 54 min chart, the four sets would be: 18 min, 54 min, 160 min, 480 min. And on the 480 inn chart, they would be: 160 min, 480 min, 1 day, 3 day. The same applies to each color coded sets of regressions and IVO lines. All of it is needed to figure where price is likely to go. An understanding of chart patterns and fractals (which take experience) help tremendously.
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UPDATE: FRI 7 PM, CT.
After looking through all charts, I am seeing more strength than I want to see in GC2!. This pushes the trade close into Wednesday, maybe Thursday. The critical time seems to be premarket Monday around 5-6 AM. Something decisive can happen here.
After looking through all charts, I am seeing more strength than I want to see in GC2!. This pushes the trade close into Wednesday, maybe Thursday. The critical time seems to be premarket Monday around 5-6 AM. Something decisive can happen here.
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UPDATE: SATURDAY MORNING.
The move down next week should be fast and furious, similar to the move up in Part 3. Thursday morning has weekly unemployment numbers. Say what you you will, but I don't see Thursday as a bearish day. So if this happens, the majority of the move should be complete before Wednesday close.
The move down next week should be fast and furious, similar to the move up in Part 3. Thursday morning has weekly unemployment numbers. Say what you you will, but I don't see Thursday as a bearish day. So if this happens, the majority of the move should be complete before Wednesday close.
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UPDATE: SUN 1:23 PM CT.
This is what I"m seeing, but full disclosure, I am extremely short GDXJ right now, there's bias in this for sure, not sure how much though. I see XAUUSD 1430 BY 9 PM Tuesday night (add 10 pts for GC). If I had to to illustrate the odds, I would say it this way. Against 98% of all realistic outcomes with a difference of 20 pts ( so 1410, 1430, 1450, 1470, 1490, and so on to 1770), 1430 owns 28% of the entire spectrum. With shorts being favored 57-43 at Friday's close and the decisive moment seems to be 5 to 6 AM pre-market on Monday morning.
Without considering economic releases, 1430 is a 78% favorite against that entire spectrum by end of Thursday. But on a headline basis, unemployment claims is going to be shockingly high on Thursday morning. So logically speaking, I have to believe that the first major low is either end of Tuesday or end of Wednesday. Why not beginning of Wednesday, my regressions are saying IF there is major low end of Tuesday, Wednesday would bounce and reverse down to another low in the vicinity of +/- 15 pts of the end of Tuesday low.
And GDXJ looks like it's getting taken behind the woodshed and getting violated by Wednesday too. So lets see what happens.
This is what I"m seeing, but full disclosure, I am extremely short GDXJ right now, there's bias in this for sure, not sure how much though. I see XAUUSD 1430 BY 9 PM Tuesday night (add 10 pts for GC). If I had to to illustrate the odds, I would say it this way. Against 98% of all realistic outcomes with a difference of 20 pts ( so 1410, 1430, 1450, 1470, 1490, and so on to 1770), 1430 owns 28% of the entire spectrum. With shorts being favored 57-43 at Friday's close and the decisive moment seems to be 5 to 6 AM pre-market on Monday morning.
Without considering economic releases, 1430 is a 78% favorite against that entire spectrum by end of Thursday. But on a headline basis, unemployment claims is going to be shockingly high on Thursday morning. So logically speaking, I have to believe that the first major low is either end of Tuesday or end of Wednesday. Why not beginning of Wednesday, my regressions are saying IF there is major low end of Tuesday, Wednesday would bounce and reverse down to another low in the vicinity of +/- 15 pts of the end of Tuesday low.
And GDXJ looks like it's getting taken behind the woodshed and getting violated by Wednesday too. So lets see what happens.
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UPDATE: SUN PRE-OPEN.
If GC pushes up overnight, don't freak out. It doesn't change my thesis that much. If it holds under 1667, I still expect 1425 next week, just on Wednesday instead.
If GC pushes up overnight, don't freak out. It doesn't change my thesis that much. If it holds under 1667, I still expect 1425 next week, just on Wednesday instead.
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UPDATE: SUN 5:10 PM CT.
Are you someone that watches futures constantly? If you are then:
1) either your trade size in probably 5-10x what it should be
2) or you don't have a yardstick for crucial time zone, you should get one.
As of right now, my yardstick says 1st critical point is midnight CT, followed by 1:30 AM, followed by 6 AM.
Are you someone that watches futures constantly? If you are then:
1) either your trade size in probably 5-10x what it should be
2) or you don't have a yardstick for crucial time zone, you should get one.
As of right now, my yardstick says 1st critical point is midnight CT, followed by 1:30 AM, followed by 6 AM.
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UPDATE: MON 9:20 AM CT.
I originally called for 1690 bc the volume curve showed 1690, but that had changed on Friday and then flipped back this morning. This usually pushes everything back 2-3 days. The lower probability that it goes straight, straight down.
I originally called for 1690 bc the volume curve showed 1690, but that had changed on Friday and then flipped back this morning. This usually pushes everything back 2-3 days. The lower probability that it goes straight, straight down.
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CRITICAL UPDATE MON 10:24 AM CT.
Because of the usual moves between short term and intermediate term volume spreads (in other words, volatility), this ends in 1 of 2 ways.
1) breakout, with roughly 10 hour window, if it's going to do it, it has to do it now
2) reverse all the way down ferociously, likely to begin in 10 hours
Shorts are still favored 55-45. The principle reason is that the five gold charts (GC1!, GC2!, XAUUSD OANDA & ICE, and GLD) I look at do not agree without a break out.
Because of the usual moves between short term and intermediate term volume spreads (in other words, volatility), this ends in 1 of 2 ways.
1) breakout, with roughly 10 hour window, if it's going to do it, it has to do it now
2) reverse all the way down ferociously, likely to begin in 10 hours
Shorts are still favored 55-45. The principle reason is that the five gold charts (GC1!, GC2!, XAUUSD OANDA & ICE, and GLD) I look at do not agree without a break out.
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UPDATE : MON, AFTERMARKET.
I'm somewhat confused right now, but I know this much:
I'm somewhat confused right now, but I know this much:
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That said, there was real buying volume today. But if GC wants to go up, it first has to correct to 1620, then we'll see.
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UPDATE: MON 9:21 PM CT.
This is going to sound stupid - bc GC just hit 1743 and XAUUSD hit 1675 - but there is no change in my thesis. Obviously XAUUSD has not broken out, but GC is a legit break out. That said, I have to go with what I know: all the way down from here to 1430 before going back up. Since gold has moved up considerably since yesterday, I am thinking it will take to 4/15 to hit 1425. Again, the first move down should be fast and furious. GC to 1585 and XAUUSD to 1565 by end of Wednesday 4/8.
This is going to sound stupid - bc GC just hit 1743 and XAUUSD hit 1675 - but there is no change in my thesis. Obviously XAUUSD has not broken out, but GC is a legit break out. That said, I have to go with what I know: all the way down from here to 1430 before going back up. Since gold has moved up considerably since yesterday, I am thinking it will take to 4/15 to hit 1425. Again, the first move down should be fast and furious. GC to 1585 and XAUUSD to 1565 by end of Wednesday 4/8.
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WHAT'S MY REASONING??
I looked at charts for GC1!, GC2!, XAUUSD from OANDA, XAUUSD from ICE, GLD, SLV, GDX and GDXJ. The only my software liked is GC2!, which is SEPTEMBER(?, not sure bc I know GC1! is JUNE) contract. And even though I used GC2! to predict the move to 1690, everything else is disagreeing with it. It doesn't mean that it's not possible to go continue up from here, but the rest of the charts are in DO or DIE mode. THERE IS NO GOING SIDEWAYS FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.
I looked at charts for GC1!, GC2!, XAUUSD from OANDA, XAUUSD from ICE, GLD, SLV, GDX and GDXJ. The only my software liked is GC2!, which is SEPTEMBER(?, not sure bc I know GC1! is JUNE) contract. And even though I used GC2! to predict the move to 1690, everything else is disagreeing with it. It doesn't mean that it's not possible to go continue up from here, but the rest of the charts are in DO or DIE mode. THERE IS NO GOING SIDEWAYS FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.
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UPDATE: TUES, 10:32 PM CT
NO CHANGE SINCE MON NIGHT.
NO CHANGE SINCE MON NIGHT.
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UPDATE WED 6:46 AM.
SHOULD GET A BIG MOVE TODAY.
SHOULD GET A BIG MOVE TODAY.
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UPDATE: WED 12:25 PM
Its just waiting for a trigger. I dont know when that will come. Meanwhile, NO UPDATES UNLESS I SEE 1430.
Its just waiting for a trigger. I dont know when that will come. Meanwhile, NO UPDATES UNLESS I SEE 1430.
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CRITICAL UPDATE: CLOSE ALL SHORTS ASAP.
GC IS GOING TO 1900. IN 7 DAYS.
GC IS GOING TO 1900. IN 7 DAYS.
Trade closed: stop reached:
THIS IDEA IS FINISHED