COMEX:GC1!   Gold Futures
This is my first article.

I understand that Im offering little proof. But I can't show my secret sauce right now. After 6 years of failure, I've created something meaningful. And as the intro to my work, this is one of the best money making strategy in March.

Many people believe that Gold do well in recessions or during equity meltdowns. This is neither true nor false, it is junk.

If you are long gold , gold related things, you have to close your longs in the next bounce. Sunday to Monday will be a retest of the low to 1551. Followed by what Elliot wave people call a b wave bounce. B-wave or not, this bounce will be late Monday to Tuesday, with a high from 1580 to 1640.

It highly likely to be higher than 1630. But really, once you GC tags 1585, babysit your longs.

This will be followed by a 360 pt crash to 1265 or so by April 09. My math says April 6th . Obviously, buying 04/09 GLD puts on 3/3 or 3/4 is best approach. In etfs, DUST, JDST , DSLV , what have you.

This crash will probably coincide with another massive equity pullback (yes, even further).

I understand from a technical point of view I'm offering nothing. But the thing about reputation is that you have to be right. So lets see at 04/06.

Comment: Sunday, 9:28 PM ET. Update: nothing has changed. Timing expectation of Monday low is 8:30 AM ET before U.S. open.
Comment: Monday, 8:40 AM ET. Update: nothing has changed except timing of today's low, needs 3 more hours. Selling starting to pick up.
Comment: Monday, 1:27 PM ET. Update: Volume patterns has morphed enough to make 2 scenarios possible: 1) Straight to 1551 or 2) bounce to 1615 and then straight to 1551. This before 3 legs up to 1635. This pushes the kiss of death out much further than anticipated. As long as 2 weeks, and then the spike down to 1400s.
Comment: Tuesday, 10:18 PM ET

Comment: Tuesday, 10:20 PM ET The chart above I meant to post on Saturday. It accidentally uploaded when I was trying to post something I'll post next. Basically the top is GC weekly bars with selected multiple bollinger bands. I'm not a fan of the multiple standard deviations of the same period: like 20-period band layered outside with 3-sd, 4sd, 5sd.. so on, bc it's only useful once every 10 years, maybe 15. I've found that when multiple periods of BB squeeze, is something to pay to attention to. At the bottom is something I want to to call Infinite Volume Oscillator. Which is pointing to 1100s late this year.
Comment: Tuesday, 10:29 PM ET.
Comment: Tuesday, 10:30 PM ET. This is for the link above I just posted. This is a chart created with Tradingview platform on I can describe it this way: I prefer linear regression over moving average. Because they are more accurate. So why would I use SMA OR EMA when I can use LR? I wouldn't. Secondly, one or two or four lines tell you nothing except for those one or two or four lines. The reason is life is spontaneous and organic, not based on 50 and 200 day moving averages. So in order to get an accurate picture of what price is doing. You have to describe EVERY SINGLE TIME FRAME.
Comment: Tuesday, 10:37 PM ET. From a pure price point of view (not accounting for volume), the bounce to 1652 today DID NOT undo the the technical damage that occurred Friday. When I say that, That is from a 30-day point of view. That is significantly bearish, but NOT YET ABSOLUTELY.

That can be answered with volume derivatives. Anyway, my expectation is a bearish Wed and Thursday, but the next 6 hours or so (to 5 AM ET Wed), really decides how fast this thing comes down.
Comment: Wednesday 12:13 PM ET. Update: GC is do or die on a 3 day time frame. Give away here and the move down begins acceleration.
Comment: Thursday 9:00 PM ET. Update: It obviously chose to do over die, or did it? How would know for sure? Well we can't untill after the fact. What I can do is provide a comparison of money flow using my Infinite Volume Oscillator. Please see below.
This is the curent picture of my Infinite Volume Oscillato (30 min bars)r. It illustrates the bidding action in this time frame that is responsible for the break up. The question is: is this break out durable?
This is a comparison of a similar breakout in August 2018. The difference here is not just how much volume, but how much of that volume really matters. The August breakout in terms of raw strength is 3 to 1 to the current break out. In other words, there is not enough money coming in to fight the swing down.
This the same layout for GLD, absolutely does NOT confirm the breakout. Does that mean we are going down for sure? Not for sure, just highly favored to. Especially with the weakness in GDX and SLV. I have SLV April puts that went up today even though SLV (ETF for silver, contract is SI1!) went UP today.
Comment: Thursday, 9:35 PM ET. Update: So where to next? My thesis is still down, and under 1550. My estimate is by next Thursday. So we'll see about that while I work on "GOLD CRASH PART 2!!". I still have my April GLD, GDX, and SLV puts.
Comment: Thursdsay, Mar 10. 12:43 PM ET. Update: END OF TRADE. I would close all shorts here. The situation is fluid. Fed, Treasury, Congress all have to do something. Fundamentals first. If gold holds 1560s, and move back up, the swing can hit 1900.
Comment: And 30 minutes later that came true.
Comment: March 16. The money is shorting 1610. Either DGLD, DSLV, DUST, JDUST, or mid April ATM options.


March 17. The timeline for 1608 is looking like next Wed, March 23rd now.
Interesting play could be short gold long silver as the ratio between the two is at near historical highs of about 97x now.
Yeah, I agree. The inflation expectation is down tremendously so there is no reason for gold to be moving up. It may be delayed in crashing by the false idea it's a save haven... no such thing. It will likely catch up soon to the downside.
JakubKonieczny JakubKonieczny
GDX will catch the downside even more aggressively. It only held flat today because gold was up a bit. Once gold has a weak day, gdx will crash to catch up to what spx is doing.
MQP JakubKonieczny
@JakubKonieczny, I'm iffy, about this, espcecially if GC takes out 1692 and finds support above 1625 while the Fed decides to double down and cut 50 at March 18. I have strong convictions that can be easily swayed.
@MQP, this idea is working - two thumbs up
MQP JakubKonieczny
@JakubKonieczny, Crazy. I went against my indicators bc of fundamentals expecting it to change course. And here we are.
MQP JakubKonieczny
@JakubKonieczny, I feel even better about PART 3.
@MQP, I really think there is another wave down. Been playing this by shorting miners. THink the next week there will be a low but a lower low vs. last week.
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