I understand that Im offering little proof. But I can't show my secret sauce right now. After 6 years of failure, I've created something meaningful. And as the intro to my work, this is one of the best money making strategy in March.
Many people believe that Gold do well in recessions or during equity meltdowns. This is neither true nor false, it is junk.
If you are long gold , gold related things, you have to close your longs in the next bounce. Sunday to Monday will be a retest of the low to 1551. Followed by what people call a b wave bounce. B-wave or not, this bounce will be late Monday to Tuesday, with a high from 1580 to 1640.
It highly likely to be higher than 1630. But really, once you GC tags 1585, babysit your longs.
This will be followed by a 360 pt crash to 1265 or so by April 09. My math says April 6th . Obviously, buying 04/09 GLD puts on 3/3 or 3/4 is best approach. In etfs, DUST, JDST , DSLV , what have you.
This crash will probably coincide with another massive equity pullback (yes, even further).
I understand from a technical point of view I'm offering nothing. But the thing about reputation is that you have to be right. So lets see at 04/06.
That can be answered with volume derivatives. Anyway, my expectation is a bearish Wed and Thursday, but the next 6 hours or so (to 5 AM ET Wed), really decides how fast this thing comes down.
This is the curent picture of my Infinite Volume Oscillato (30 min bars)r. It illustrates the bidding action in this time frame that is responsible for the break up. The question is: is this break out durable?
This is a comparison of a similar breakout in August 2018. The difference here is not just how much volume, but how much of that volume really matters. The August breakout in terms of raw strength is 3 to 1 to the current break out. In other words, there is not enough money coming in to fight the swing down.
This the same layout for GLD, absolutely does NOT confirm the breakout. Does that mean we are going down for sure? Not for sure, just highly favored to. Especially with the weakness in GDX and SLV. I have SLV April puts that went up today even though SLV (ETF for silver, contract is SI1!) went UP today.