This_Guhy
Short

Gold Weekly Volume Points to Bearish Control

COMEX:GC1!   Gold Futures
I started looking at the volume and getting worried about gold and silvers upside potential before Christmas and a few days ago I did a post where I looked at Gold's volume on the 3d chart. Things have gotten more bearish as the high volume continues on the weekly time frame. I suppose I will do a monthly chart here in the next couple of weeks.

Quick review:
Log Chart
Top purple resistance line is from the all time high to our most recent high at 1600.
Bottom purple support is a from the low of 2015 and the low of 2018. We will zoom out on that later.
Bollinger band is set to the 3rd standard devation, which by definition contains 99.97% of all price action.
The gravestone doji in the black circle is already setting up a very typical reveral candlestick pattern.
Volume for the reversal doji is an all time high on CG1!.
Volume of 2.525 and a 20 SMA of 1.66 means that this volume was 66% higher than the average volume .
On Balance Volume w/ EMAS and Bollanger bands shows the OBV has popped out the top of the bollinger band . Even a cursory look at the OBV history shows that signals at least a pull back.

I don't know how to make a stronger case with simple but powerful analysis that we have a seen the top of gold defined by the price action and the volume action. Price does not look staged to be slapped off the table just yet, but we are getting pretty close. Anyone with any charting ability and an interest in gold could have seen the acceding triangle in the image below. But likewise anyone with any interest could see that acceding triangle is nested within a larger symmetrical triangle structure. If that top is in then there is a very real possibility that price will either test the previous resistance of the acceding triangle and if that fails, text the support of the symmetrical triangle
The blue and orange trendlines are places were previous support can turn into resistance and would be technical entries for short positions or to closes your shorts if you shorted from higher up. It would be very easy to see a head and shoulders pattern develop on the main chart with a neckline at 1450. Quite frankly it is just Monday here and if the price action did nothing else on the weekly timeframe but stick to around 1543 for this candle I would be happy with the safety my short (via DUST) is in.

Here is the 3d chart with some typical indicators that couple well with the Bollinger Bands to look for a reversal. I suspect very shortly we will see the Stoch RSI fall below 80, go below 20, and begin to run across the bottom. The RSI has clear bearish divergence from September to the present and I continue to expect this uptrend to reverse. To shreds you say.
Definitely a bearish reversal last week, no denying it. shooting star doji at the end of an upmove with high volume, Kind of classic . But I dont expect a big reversal from here . Maybe 1430 to 1380 area
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@awh2830, I always appreciate your comments and the 1380 is where I would put the pull back if we find support on the accending triangle and test previous resistance as support. That would key us up for a major reversal and be a solid indication that we could move to the upside and potentially break out of the consolidation triangle I have drawn.

What are your thoughts generally on the consolidation triangle? Have you tested the OBV EMAS to incorporate them into your system? I find them to be very compelling and almost all TA is centered on price action and volume action. Bearing that in mid the point of control on the Volume Profile has us at 1284



Below is the chart of gold with the bollinger bands set to 4 standard deviations. Very rare we pop through. Squares are break through, and circles are near calls. All call for either a rejection and reversal or a bounce and a continuation. This volume and the likelihood of a continuation make me think a bollinger band bounce and continuation is off the table.

Reply
awh2830 This_Guhy
@This_Guhy, AS Steve Nissens book on candlestick charting says, "One arrow is easy to break but a bunch of arrows tied together is very hard to break." Volume is in my opinion the second most important indicator after price.
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