GDX about to break out of the blue rectangle to the upside.
GDX backed to rectangle, was the previous breakout a false one? hard to believe that based on breakout both happen in MACD and RSI trend
bucalemu lantao517
@lantao517, I don't believe this was a false breakout, Gold retesting $1300 level.
lantao517 bucalemu
@bucalemu, Hi I also cannot believe it's a false break, but the net long position is a little too high and volunrable for further correction, and RSI is about 50 and down from about 80 area, so still cannot say too oversold. do you think better to wait for further consolidation and buy in before FOMC if move to oversold area
bucalemu lantao517
@lantao517, it's difficult to get the timing right, but I agree that more consolidation is likely, especially as gold cycles seem to indicate we might have a last leg down in the next few months. For me, geopolitical tensions are running too high to try to get to get the perfect entry.
lantao517 bucalemu
@bucalemu, Hi, thank you for reply, yes thing is not good for Gold&GDX in short term especially USDJPY is on perfect upward type, and US treasury is also heading higher as a result of better than expected inflation data. that's a so volatile market for Gold this year, actually even after a valid breakout.
Do you still think late August breakout is a valid breakout, are you?
bucalemu lantao517
@lantao517, yes I believe this breakout was the start of a longer time upward trend, but for the short term I think gold will retest the trend line it has broken out from
(dotted black line).
lantao517 bucalemu
@bucalemu, dotted black line, so probally $22.8 ~ $23, extra 3% correction needed from current area, RSI may get to around 30 maybe. do you expect that?
bucalemu lantao517
@lantao517, yes, maybe as low as 22.5
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