Gold Miners - Bearish Thesis Confirmed
Why I’m bearish on Gold and Gold Miners in the short to medium term:
All the following items provide a positive market sentiment, and a stronger willingness for investors to allocate money to risky assets such as stocks rather than safe haven assets like gold, and therefore selling of gold miners.
1.) Still strong US economy, based on the slew of positive economic data we’ve been seeing. Examples would be low jobless claims, good nominal wage growth and low inflationary pressures.
2.) Long end interest rates (10 yr) are rising due to reduced investor fears, causing a decrease in attractiveness of Gold, which is a non-yielding asset.
3.) US Dollar Index has been consolidating for the last several trading sessions, representing a bullish signal in the short term. Provided that we have a positive economic backdrop in the US currently, probability that it breaks out to the upside is high.
4.) Corporate earnings are likely to keep surprising to the upside, since projections have been lowered so much over the last few months.
5.) More likely for positive rather than negative news to come out regarding US-China trade deal. Both sides are committed and evidence suggests a positive outcome.
Feel free to comment or send me a msg if you want to discuss more in detail or if you have different views. You can also check out my blog at gdxdaily.com, this is where I post in much greater detail regarding my analysis.
All the following items provide a positive market sentiment, and a stronger willingness for investors to allocate money to risky assets such as stocks rather than safe haven assets like gold, and therefore selling of gold miners.
1.) Still strong US economy, based on the slew of positive economic data we’ve been seeing. Examples would be low jobless claims, good nominal wage growth and low inflationary pressures.
2.) Long end interest rates (10 yr) are rising due to reduced investor fears, causing a decrease in attractiveness of Gold, which is a non-yielding asset.
3.) US Dollar Index has been consolidating for the last several trading sessions, representing a bullish signal in the short term. Provided that we have a positive economic backdrop in the US currently, probability that it breaks out to the upside is high.
4.) Corporate earnings are likely to keep surprising to the upside, since projections have been lowered so much over the last few months.
5.) More likely for positive rather than negative news to come out regarding US-China trade deal. Both sides are committed and evidence suggests a positive outcome.
Feel free to comment or send me a msg if you want to discuss more in detail or if you have different views. You can also check out my blog at gdxdaily.com, this is where I post in much greater detail regarding my analysis.
Trade active:
Trade active:
Would recommend selling 50% of position now to realize half your profits so far. Tomorrow retail numbers could disappoint which would help boost gold prices.
Trade active:
Hope everyone added some positions during this morning's bounce. Given the positive US economic data, Gold and Gold miners have more room to sell.
Trade active:
Trade active:
Prices acted exactly as predicted. Look to add to short position on any retrace. RSI getting oversold so I'll be looking for a good exit point after a few more days of selling, potentially will sell entire position if it hits the support.
