Looking at the waves on the hourly chart it seems we had an impulse down from the peak of the current move, around 10500, and what looks like an expanded flar that was extremely choppy. I would've been tempted to say that's it for the bounce and the current 4th wave, but from that red c high, the dax made only 3 waves down before stopping and rallying.
Right now I see 2 scenarios:
- the shown count - which looks like it is constructing a double 3. there was a flat a-b-c up from the lows where 1/A is, a simple for x back down and now we should finish another a-b-c upwards. The a-b look already in place, so I expect a final thrust upwards to put in also a c. The a=c would be at 10323, but I expect the c to finish higher, maybe at the a=1,5*c which is actually very close to the blue upper TL.
- the more immediate count, which would have where x is a b of an expanded flat.. would mean we had 1 down, 2 up and should go lower, without taking out the most recent high (10288). I think this option is a heavy underdog, but if we break the x low, it becomes preferred.
Lines in the sand are:
- 10288 - which would give more weight to the 1st scenario
- 10172 - which would call for a reevaluation and give more consideration to the 2nd (and more scenario)
In case you haven't read the article already, check out the mcm projection for dax . It calls for a peak around 21st of September and then a strong down move. That lines up nicely with the preferred scenario mentioned above.
If you have any questions on the mcm analysis please feel free to contact me anytime at firstname.lastname@example.org
Good luck to your trades!